Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Eury Perez, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 60 | 60 | 65 | 55 | 70 |
Background: A lot of things haven’t gone right during the Marlins’ latest rebuild cycle. Their draft classes have – typically – been uninspiring, at best. Southpaw Trevor Rogers is the only notable big leaguer from their 2017 class. The club’s first four picks a year later have been utterly disappointing – Connor Scott, who’s not even with the organization anymore, Osiris Johnson, Will Banfield, and Tristan Pompey. Armed with the fourth overall pick a year later, Miami opted to take Vanderbilt slugger J.J. Bleday over Riley Greene, CJ Adams, Nick Lodolo, Alek Manoah, Brett Baty, and Corbin Carroll. Their 2021 first rounder Max Meyer, the third overall pick, just underwent Tommy John surgery in early August. And if that wasn’t bad enough, the front office swung-and-missed mightily when they dealt away Giancarlo Stanton (even though it was really a straight up salary dump), J.T. Relamuto, and Christian Yelich. (Note: they did hit big on the Marcell Ozuna deal with St. Louis, which brought Sandy Alcantara, last season’s Cy Young winner, and Zac Gallen; and Jazz Chisholm for Gallen looks like a rare win-win too.) But there’s one thing that the franchise’s farm system has going for it – Eury Perez. Not exactly unheralded on the international free agency market in 2019, Perez, though, was clearly underrated by all of baseball – especially consider that Miami inked the 6-foot-8, 200-pound right-hander to a relatively modest $200,000 deal. Since then the lanky right-hander has added several inches and a couple dozen pounds to his still growing frame, taking his vast potential along for the ride as well. The Dominican was figuratively – and almost literally – unhittable during his debut in 2021 as his split time between Jupiter and Beloit. Perez would throw 78.0 innings with a whopping 108 strikeouts and only 26 free passes to go along with a Bob Gibson-esque 1.96 ERA. Last season he was just as dominant. This time, though, it came against the challenging Double-A competition. In 17 starts with the Pensacola Blue Wahoos, the young righty averaged an impressive 12.7 strikeouts against just 3.0 walks per nine innings. His season was interrupted as a “minor right should injury” forced him out of action for six weeks late in the year.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, there have been only nine 19-year-old hurlers to throw at least 50 innings in any Double-A league. Here’s how Perez’s production stacks up against his peers:
- Strikeout Percentage (34.08%): 1st
- Strikeout-to-Walk Percentage (26.05%): 1st
- Strikeout Rate (12.72 K/9): 1st
- Strikeout-to-Walk Rate (4.24): 2nd
There are certain pitchers that just have “it” — that undeniable mix of talent, youth, and production that doesn’t come along to often – or rarely. Eury Perez, the former underrated international free agent, has IT. And then some. The big right-hander combines arguably the best repertoire in the minor leagues with a strong feel for the strike zone and the guile / willingness to change speeds. Perez’s heater, a borderline plus-plus offering, sits comfortably in the mid- to upper-90s that just screams late life from the moment it leaves his hand. He’ll feature two different breaking balls: a plus curveball and a newly added plus slider that will often look like a hard, impossibly difficult to hit cutter. And if that wasn’t enough, the young right-hander features a deadly, almost unfairly wicked changeup with plenty of arm side fade. Perez is on the short list of top pitching in the game – unequivocally. The only thing that might derail him – rob fans of the joy of watching him dominate – is any unfortunate injuries to his precious right elbow or shoulder.
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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2. Jacob Berry, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50/60 | 30 | 55 | 45 | 60 |
Background: Falling in similar company as a lot of the other top prospects in the 2021 draft class, Berry’s father – Perry – has strong ties to professional baseball. The elder Berry, a former middle infielder, was a late round draft pick by the California Angels coming out of high school – though he would eventually attend the University of Louisiana at Lafayette. Three years later the Astros called his name in the fourth round in 1990. His professional career would span four mostly disappointing seasons in the low minors. The younger Berry figures to handle the transition to the pro game significantly better. A powerfully built 6-foot, 212-pound third baseman / right fielder, Berry was a tremendous force in the middle of Arizona’s lineup during his true freshman season: in 63 games, he slugged .352/.439/.676 with 19 doubles, five triples, and 17 dingers. He spent the following summer starring for Team USA, putting together a jaw-dropping .387/.475/.871 triple-slash line as he tied for the team lead in doubles (three) and homeruns (four). Prior to the 2022 season, Berry followed former Arizona head coach Jay Johnson to LSU where – of course – he would continue to rake. In 53 games with the Tigers, the 21-year-old switch-hitter batted .370/.464/.630 with nine doubles and 15 homeruns. Miami made him the sixth overall pick last July, signing him to a deal worth an even $6 million. After a four-game jaunt through the Complex League, Berry appeared in 33 games with the Hammerheads, hitting .264/.358/.392 with seven doubles and three homeruns. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average production mark by 18% — a solid debut for the former collegiate slugger.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Since 2011, only five players have batted at least .350/.425/.650 in a Pac-12 season (min. 250 PA): Spencer Torkelson, Andrew Vaughn, Adley Rutschman, Cameron Cannon, and – of course – Jacob Berry, who accomplished the feat as a freshman (though, to be fair, he was a 20-year-old freshman).
Let’s continue:
- Since 2011, here’s the list of SEC hitters to post a .360/.450/.600 slash line with more walks than strikeouts and a sub-12.0% K-rate in a season (min. 225 PA): Andrew Benintendi, Austin Martin, and Jacob Berry.
Regardless of the mini-study, Berry’s statistical comps are littered with early first round picks (sans Cannon, who was a second rounder). Cody Bellinger from the left side and a hulking middle-of-the-lineup thumper from the right side. Berry’s contact rates took huge strides between his freshman and sophomore seasons, chopping his K-rate down from 19% to 8%. Patient approach. Above-average power, but he hasn’t quite fully tapped into his 30- to 35-homer thump. He’s too lumbering to play third, so he’s likely headed towards the outfield or first base full time. Ryan Braun without the speed. If he provided defensive value, he’d be a lock as the #1 – though he’s still in conversation.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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3. Max Meyer, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 70 | 55/60 | 55 | 60 |
Background: The early part of the 2021 first round looked to be absolutely loaded with the likes of Spencer Torkelson, who was one of the most damaging college bats in recent memory, Heston Kjerstad, an under-slot signing with a long track record of SEC success, and – of course – Max Meyer, the fast-rising reliever-turned-Minnesota-ace, with the third overall pick. Asa Lacy, the dominant southpaw from Texas A&M, and Austin Martin. But each member of the quintet has hit a few roadblocks or obstacles during their young, once promising careers. Torkelson was abysmal during his extended debut in Detroit last season, hitting a hugely disappointing .203/.285/.319 in more than 400 plate appearances. Kjerstad’s battled medical issues that kept him seeing a ballfield from 2020 through the beginning of last season. Lacy walked 42 hitters in only 28.0 innings last season. Martin was dealt from Toronto to Minnesota roughly a year after the draft and he’s coming off of a .241/.367/.316 showing in Double-A. And, of course, there’s Max Meyer, the slider-snapping strikeout artist who dominated Triple-A but dealt with a couple DL stints before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in early August – an injury that will likely knock him out through the majority of 2023. Wonky elbow notwithstanding, Meyer finished his 2022 minor league campaign with 65 strikeouts and only 19 walks in 58.0 innings with Jacksonville. He made two disastrous starts with the Marlins as well.
Scouting Report: Pre-elbow injury, Meyer owned – perhaps – the best fastball / slider combo among all starting pitchers in the minor leagues. His heater, a plus offering, sits in the mid-90s and would touch a few ticks high on occasion. It’s particularly difficult above the belt and in on hitters’ hands. His slider, of course, is the real story – a hard, biting upper 80s breaking ball that nearly perfectly mirrors the spin on his four-seamer, which only adds to its wickedness. Meyer will seemingly alter the break on the pitch, something opting for a tighter, more traditional slider. Other times, it’ll show more downward tilt – a la a power curveball. And, yet, other times it looks more like a hard cutter. Either way, though, they’re all one in the same. Meyer will also feature a rare – too rare, in fact – changeup that flashes plus at times. The former college reliever-turned-starter needs to throw it more often, particularly once he carves out a spot in the Marlins’ rotation – assuming there aren’t any setbacks in his recovery. A Sandy Alcantara / Max Meyer one-two punch atop a rotation would be lethal.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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4. Dax Fulton, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 55 | 45/50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: After selecting University of Minnesota ace Max Meyer with the third overall pick three years ago, the front office brass followed that up with five consecutive pitching picks. Two of those picks – Kyle Nicolas and Kyle Hurt – are no longer with the organization. The second of those selections was used on prep left-hander Dax Fulton. Standing a gargantuan 6-foot-7, 225 pounds, Fulton was one the larger surprises in the farm system two years ago. The Mustang High School product would split his debut season between Low-A and High-A, averaging 9.7 strikeouts and 4.4 walks per nine innings across 19 starts and one relief appearance. And last season was much the same for the big lefty – except better. Fulton began the season back in High-A. He would make 20 starts with the Beloit Sky Carp, throwing 97.1 innings with 120 strikeouts and only 35 walks. Miami bumped him up to the minors’ toughest level, Double-A, in late August for four – mostly dominant starts.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only 20-year-old hurlers posted a 27.5% to 29.5% strikeout rate with a walk rate between 7.5% to 9.5% in High-A (min. 75 IP): Tekoah Roby and Dax Fulton, both of whom accomplished the feat in 2022.
A tremendous value pick in the opening parts of the second round. Fulton showcases a standard four-pitch mix: a mid-90s, plus fastball, an above-average, sometimes slurvy curveball, a new above-average slider, and a workable, sometimes decent changeup. Fulton, in spite of his big frame, consistently throws strikes – though he will deal with random bouts of wildness. There’s a lot to like about Fulton as a pitching prospect, but he’s not an elite prospect. He’s tracking like a #3 /#4 hurler during his peak.
Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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5. Kahlil Watson, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/55 | 40/55 | 60 | 50 | 45/55 | 60 |
Background: Going back to their first draft class in 1992, the Marlins have selected just two shortstops in the opening round – Josh Booty, fifth overall pick in 1994, and – of course – Kahlil Watson, the 16th player taken two years ago. A product of Wake Forest High School, Watson was an offensive dynamo during his abbreviated debut in the Florida Complex League, mashing .394/.524/.606 with three doubles, triples, four stolen bases, and more walks than strikeouts (8-to-7) in nine games. Things seemed to be clicking not only for Watson, but also the organization’s new front office. But for all the promise the lefty-swinging shortstop showed in 2021, his production and behavior on the field was on the opposite end of the spectrum. The former prep star started 2022 right where he left off, slugging .294/.338/.603 over the first month, but his numbers cooled considerably over the next two months (.190/.247/.276). And then The Incident happened. Watson swung-and-missed following a questionable check-swing strike. On his way back to the dugout the young prospect appeared to mimic a shotgun shooting towards the offending umpire. He was promptly suspended for a several weeks. He would make it back to Jupiter at the end of the month and batted a respectable .256/.347/.454 over his remaining 22 games. Watson finished the season with an aggregate .231/.296/.395 slash line, belting out 16 doubles, five triples, nine homeruns, and 16 stolen bases.
Scouting Report: The success rate for similarly performing 19-year-old hitters is terrible. Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five 19-year-old hitters posted a 90 to 100 wRC+ with a strikeout rate north of 32% in Low-A (min. 300 PA): Cristian Santana, Jhailyn Ortiz, Ryan Spikes, Eduardo Garcia, and – of course – Khalil Watson.
The swing-and-miss issues that I suspected were on the horizon came into fruition last season as he whiffed in 35.5% of his plate appearances. He’s a tremendous athlete, the type that could become a key piece as a franchise cornerstone – behavior notwithstanding. Not to excuse Watson’s incident, but he’s young, clearly has maturity issues, and was mired in an awful two-month stint. The April, July, August, and September production is where the true talent lies. I’d bet on a big bounce back. Watson’s the type of athlete that can be a valuable big league with a 40-grade hit tool.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025
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6. Jordan Groshans, 3B / SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50/55 | 30 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The Marlins’ 2018 draft was particularly abysmal. Connor Scott, the 13th overall pick, hasn’t hit well and he’s no longer with the organization. Infielder Osiris Johnson is coming off of his best professional season, hitting .238/.299/.322 – most of which occurred during his third stint in Low-A. Will Banfield is a career .207/.262/.336 in 309 career minor league games. And Tristan Pompey, their third round pick, played Indy Ball in 2022. Last summer, though, the front office dipped their toes back into the 2018 draft and traded for oft-injured, though always promising infielder Jordan Groshans from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Anthony Bass, Zach Pop, and Edward Duran, the Player To Be Named Later. The 12th overall pick five years ago, Groshans finally reach the 100-game threshold in a season last year – despite getting a late start. Between both organizations’ Triple-A affiliates, the shortstop / third baseman batted .263/.359/.331 with just 16 doubles and three homeruns. He also appeared In 17 games with the Marlins down the stretch as well, hitting as empty .262/.308/.312 in 65 plate appearances.
Scouting Report: Despite the loss of considerable development time, Groshans, who was limited to just 98 games between 2019 and 2021, always hit and flashed promising power potential. Until last season, that is. The former first rounder started off like a bat out of hell, hitting .350/.449/.425 over his first 24 Triple-A games. But a two month funk wrecked his overall numbers. I’m still a big believer in the hit tool and feel that there’s 20-homer pop brewing in the bat, but I’m not sure the Marlins are the organization to coax it out of him. Very short, direct swing with fast hands. Defensively, he plays a passable left side of the infield, though third base is his likely landing spot. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .280/.340/.430.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted 2022
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7. Jacob Miller, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 55 | 45/50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The population of Baltimore, Ohio, is the equivalent of a large high school – roughly just 3,000 people live in the small mid-state city. So it’s no surprise that the only high school in town, Liberty Union, hasn’t (A) produced whole lot of athletes in its history and (B) it’s home to the Ohio Gatorade Player of the Year. On the radar for big time college programs since his early teenage years, the 6-foot-2, 180-pound right-hander committed to the University of Louisville before he even entered high school. It turned out that there was little chance the hard-throwing youngster would attend the collegiate powerhouse. Miller shot up draft charts during his dominating junior campaign with the Lions, throwing just 60 innings of high school ball but racking up a whopping 143 strikeouts to go along with a 0.70 ERA. And he was just as dominant during his final campaign with Liberty Union as well: he went 9-1 with a 133 punch outs in just 57 innings of work – or roughly 78% of the outs he registered were on strikeouts. Miami selected him in the second round, 46th overall, and signed him to a deal worth just a smidgeon under $1.7 million. Miller would throw 5.2 innings during his debut, posting a 6-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the Complex League and Low-A.
Scouting Report: My pre-draft write-up:
“A lot of pitching-specialized training focuses on moving fast towards home plate, building up and taking advantage of momentum. Miller bucks that trend from the windup, moving slowly with strength before exploding through his finish. Mid-90s fastball, sitting in the 94- to 95-mph range. Very good, plus low-80s curveball. Above-average mid-80s slider. And a sneakily good changeup that may creep into above-average territory with some tweaking and fine-tuning. Cold weather teenage pitchers – especially from Ohio – are always a gamble, but Miller is built sturdily with a deep, potentially potent repertoire. He’s reminiscent of a high school Jordan Balazovic.”
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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8. Jake Eder, LHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
Background: More than two years removed from their 2020 draft class, it’s evident that the Marlins knocked it out of the park – despite two of the class’s most promising arms succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Max Meyer, Dax Fulton, and Jake Eder, their first, second, and fifth picks, rank among the club’s Top 8 prospects. Zach McCambley could be a useful bullpen piece in the near future. Kyle Nicolas was dealt to Pittsburgh as part of the booty for Jacob Stallings. And their last pick, Kyle Hurt, was part of the package that brought Dylan Floro to the Fish. Eder, the 104th player taken that year, turned in one of the most impressive debuts for the entire draft class – regardless of organization. The former Vanderbilt hurler jumped straight into Double-A the following season and was practically unhittable across 71.1 innings before succumbing to Tommy John surgery.
Scouting Report: All reports indicate he’s on target to return in 2023. Here’s his pre-injury scouting report:
“A fairly solid three-pitch repertoire highlighted by a 92- to 94-mph fastball. He’ll complement the above-average offering with a slurvy slider, a second above-average offering. He’ll also mix in a solid average changeup. Eder is more of a strike-thrower than a pure command guy and he’s susceptible to bouts of wildness from time-to-time. With the recent Tommy John surgery, he will miss the entire 2022 season.”
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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9. Yiddi Cappe, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 40/45 | 50/40 | 45 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Led by new front office czar Kim Ng, the Marlins went all in – both figuratively and literally – when they signed the young Cuban shortstop two years ago, handing him a massive $3.5 million deal on the international scene. A few months later Cappe, a native of La Habana, was squaring off against the hitter-friendly arms of theDominican Summer League, batting a solid – yet uninspiring – .270/.329/.402 with 17 doubles, one triple, two homeruns, and nine stolen bases (in 17 total attempts). His overall production during his debut, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was just 3% better than the league average. Last year the front office took the predictable approach and sent the 6-foot-3, 175-pound middle infielder to the stateside rookie league. And Cappe mashed. He slugged .305/.364/.517 with seven doubles, six homeruns, and six stolen bases. The organization bumped him up to Low-A in late July. He would bat a respectable .279/.299/.380 in 37 games with Jupiter. His overall production with the Hammerheads was 9% below the league average mark.
Scouting Report: It was nice little bounce back year for the former Bonus Baby – though future projection remains modest, at best. Cappe moved into the Complex League and did exactly what an older-ish prospect should do against low level arms: hit. But the Cuban import remains raw, an unfinished prospect. He shows solid speed, but runs haphazardly / inefficiently on the base paths. He makes consistent contact, but doesn’t consistently barrel up the ball. And defensively his glove has been average. Two years into his pro career and Cappe has shown a few flashes, but nothing to indicate more than a fringe average regular is lurking deep within.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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10. Ian Lewis, 2B / 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/55 | 40/45 | 60 | 45 | 50/60 | 45 |
Background: Another one of the club’s aggressive, big dollar international free agency deals. Miami signed the slick-fielding infielder from Nassau, Bahamas, for $950,000 in 2019. Like other members of the signing class, Lewis would be held out of professional action until the 2021 season. But he proved to be worth the wait. Appearing in 43 games with the club’s Florida Complex League affiliate, the 5-foot-10, 177-pound infielder slugged .302/.354/.497 with 10 doubles, five triples, three homeruns, and nine stolen bases. Unsurprisingly, the front office bumped the young prospect up to Low-A for the 2022 season. After missing the opening month of the year due to a personal issue in the Bahamas, Lewis joined in mid-May but the stay barely lasted two months. An injury on a swing in mid-July knocked him out of the remainder of the season. In all, Lewis put together a mediocre season with Jupiter, hitting .265/.347/.368 with seven doubles, three triples, two homeruns, and 16 stolen bases (in only 17 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Lewis’ overall production topped the league average mark by 6%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a season in Low-A (min. 200 PA): 100 to 110 wRC+, 9.5% to 10.5% walk rate and a strikeout rate between 19% and 23%. Those three hitters: Tyler Wade, Bryan Ramos, and – of course – Ian Lewis.
Another one of the Marlins’ infield prospects who remain low level wild cards. Lewis has an intriguing foundation in place: he’s a plus runner, a silky smooth defender, enough pop to keep pitchers and defenses honest, and some promising ability as a switch-hitter. The question, of course, like every other toolsy, projectable youngster is whether he’ll put it all together.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
