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1. Diego Cartaya, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 30 | 60 | 55 | 70 |
Background: The 2018 international free agent class is turning out to be pretty special, one of the better ones in recent memory. Marco Luciano, Orelvis Martinez, Noelvi Marte, Francisco Alvarez, Kevin Alcantara, and Alexander Ramirez were some of the notable names to be added to affiliated ball that season. The Dodgers, though, added – arguably – the best prospect on the international scene that season. Ranked by MLB.com and Baseball America as the first and third best prospect in the class, Los Angeles signed the big backstop for a massive $2.5 million deal that summer. Standing an imposing 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds, Cartaya debuted in 2019 as he split time between the club’s foreign and stateside rookie league affiliates, batting an aggregate .281/.343/.432 with 12 doubles, two triples, and four homeruns. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a solid 11%. Last season, as minor league ball returned from its COVID-imposed shutdown, the front office pushed the then-19-year-old, baby faced teenager to Low-A West. In an injury-shortened sophomore campaign the Venezuelan-born prospect slugged a scorching .298/.409/.614 with six doubles and 10 homeruns in only 31 games. His overall production was a whopping 58% better than the league average mark.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Big time pull power. Cartaya shows an incredibly low maintenance swing and keeps his hands inside the well. Smooth right-handed swing. Based on foot speed alone, Cartaya’s – maybe – a 35 runner. The young backstop looks like the he’s going to move quickly. Plus-throwing arm, both in terms of accuracy and arm strength. He’s going to break out in a big way in 2020.
Scouting Report: Just for fun, here’s Cartaya’s production prorated for a full 162-game season: 31 doubles and 52 homeruns. Not. Too. Shabby. On a bit of a personal note: there’s only been a handful of times that I’ve watched a player for the first time and the hair on the back of my neck stood up and I leaned closer to the computer screen to get a better look. The first time: Joakim Soria during one of his first big league appearances. More recently, though: Diego Cartaya. As high of a ceiling as any hitter – read: not ballplayer – in the minor leagues, Cartaya put his talents on full display during his abbreviated 2021 campaign: He showed plus power, plus patience, and a decent hit tool. The lone knock on an otherwise superb, albeit shortened, season: his 27.0% K-rate. Is it high? Sure, a touch. Is it concerning? Maybe. But he was 19-years-old, playing the most rigorous defensive position, and squaring off against significantly older competition. Defensively speaking, he performed better than expected. In terms of a big league ceiling think: .280/.350/.500.
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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2. Miguel Vargas, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 50/60 | 50/40 | 50 | 45/50 | 60 |
Background: Los Angeles inked the power-hitting third baseman after defecting from Cuba in September 2017 – with much less fanfare than a lot his fellow countrymen. Vargas’ old man, Lazaro, was quite the ballplayer during his prime. The elder Vargas was a dynamic hitter in the Cuban Serie Nacional: he led the league in hits during the 1983-84 season and was named Serie Nacional Most Value Player after pacing the circuit in runs and hits. Lazaro would also appear on a pair of Olympic teams, including the gold medal winning 1996 squad. He would also manage the Industriales for four seasons after his retirement. As for the younger Vargas, after signing with the perennial National League powerhouse for $300,000, he made stops at three stops during his affiliated debut in 2018, appearing in 53 games with the organization’s rookie league team, Ogden, and Great Lakes. He finished the year with a .330/.404/.465 slash line. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound infielder split the 2019 season between Great Lakes and Rancho Cucamonga, hitting an aggregate .308/.380/.440 with 38 doubles, three triples, and seven homeruns. Last season, with the return of minor league ball, Vargas torched High-A for 37 games before continuing his assault on Double-A, slugging an impressive .319/.380/.526 with 27 doubles, two triples, 23 homeruns, and 11 stolen bases (in 12 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 42%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: One of the more underrated prospects in the minor leagues. Vargas continues to showcase the type of skills – offensive and defensive – to be a perennial All-Star caliber third baseman. Solid patience, phenomenal bat-to-ball skills. And Vargas, who stands 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, hasn’t even tapped into his in-game power. There’s 20-homer potential here. In terms of ceiling think .290/.350/.460.
Scouting Report: Another one of my favorite prospects in the minor leagues. With respect to Vargas’ production in Double-A, consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hitters posted a 135 to 145 wRC+ total with a sub-17.0% strikeout rate and a walk rate between 8% and 11% in Double-A with one organization (min. 350 PA): Kyle Blanks, Gavin Cecchini, and – of course – Miguel Vargas.
One of the more talented hitters in the minor leagues. Vargas possesses the rare ability to hit for power and consistently make contact. He’s never going to be confused for Kevin Youkilis and his bloated OBPs, but the Dodgers’ emerging star will post average walk rates. Defensively, the front office has experimented with him at first base and the keystone. He’s passable at any of the three positions (1B, 2B, 3B) with the most value at second base. In terms of thinking, think: .300/.360/.500.
Ceiling: 5.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Bobby Miller, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Fun Fact Part I: in their storied history, the Los Angeles Dodgers selected five players out of the University of Louisville. Fun Fact Part II: All five of those aforementioned draft picks have come since 2011. Fun Fact Part III: of those five picks, three of them were first round selections – Kyle Funkhouser (2015), Will Smith (2016), and Bobby Miller (2020). Taken in the later parts of the opening round two years ago, Miller, the 29th overall pick, began his collegiate career with the Cardinals as a swing-man, making nine starts and eight relief appearances during his freshman season. He worked in the same capacity for Manager Dan McDonnell during his sophomore campaign, posting an 86-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 80.0 innings of work. Miller, though, was finally handed a full time starting gig during his third season – though he made just four starts before the COVID shutdown. He managed to post a 34-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 2.31 ERA in 23.1 innings of work. After signing with the organization for $2,197,500, Miller made his professional debut last season, making 14 appearances with Great Lakes and three final ones with Tulsa. Miller compiled a 70-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 56.1 innings. Miller also made five brief appearances with the Glendale Desert Dogs in the Arizona Fall League, striking out 10 and walking seven in 10.0 innings of work.
Scouting Report: The Dodgers brought Miller along slowly last season, limiting him to four or fewer innings until early July. But despite their best efforts, the hard-throwing right-hander would eventually hit the disabled list for roughly six weeks with an undisclosed injury. Miller attacks hitters with a standard four-pitch mix: an explosive, mid- to upper-90s heater; an above-average curveball; a plus, late darting slider with hard cutter-like movement; and a diving changeup. Physically, he’s built in the same mold as Dodgers ace Walker Buehler – though Miller is three inches taller. The former Louisville hurler commands the zone well. And has the potential to be a front-of-the-rotation caliber arm.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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4. Andy Pages, RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 60 | 35 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
the club’s tremendous signings out of Cuba. Pages, like fellow countryman Miguel Vargas, earned a $300,000 bonus on the international free agency market. Hailing from La Habana, the 6-foot-1, 212-pound well-built outfielder made his organizational debut in 2018, making stops in the Dominican and Arizona Summer League. He compiled a batting average-deficient .229/.392/.464 slash line with nine doubles and 10 dingers. Pages moved up to – and completely dominated – the Pioneer League the following season; he slugged a hearty .298/.398/.651 with a staggering number of extra-base hits – 43, to be exact. Last season the front office, convinced by Pages development and production in 2019, pushed the Cuban import up to High-A. And he continued to bash. In a career best 120 games with the Great Lakes Loons, Pages posted a .265/.394/.539 with 25 doubles, one triple, and 31 four-baggers. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 52%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Off the charts power thanks to his lightning fast hands. The problem for Pages, however, is his massive swing-and-miss totals; he whiffed in slightly more than 28% of his plate appearances last season. A large, untimely leg kick is clearly causing timing issues as he’s struggling to get his foot back down. It’s a pretty safe bet that the Dodgers’ player development guys are going to eliminate it – or at least quiet it a bit. Mike Stanton type power but the hit tool needs to take several leaps forward.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been five 20-year-old hitters to a wRC+ total between 147 and 157 in High-A with one organization (min. 300 PA): Gavin Lux, Logan Morrison, Luis Campusano, Clint Frazier, and – of course – Andy Pages.
- While each of the five players sports a double-digit walk rate, only two whiffed in more than 20% of their plate appearances: Frazier, 21.3%, and Pages, 24.5%.
Miscast as a center fielder, but he’s more built like stout right fielder, Pages has the foundation for a Three True Outcomes hitter. Big time power, impressive walk rates, and a questionable – though, admittedly, improved – strikeout rate. His K-rate improved from 28.3% in 2019 down to a more manageable 24.5% last season. Pages made some modifications to his stance over the past couple of years, though not the one that I thought was ripe for improvement (his leg kick). Instead, he’s holding his hands closer to his chest. His stance is reminiscent of former slugging right fielder Jay Buhner, though Pages’ isn’t open. The 21-year-old owns as much power as any player in the minor leagues. If he can keep the K-rates in the 24% to 26%, he be bashing plenty of big league dingers.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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5. Michael Busch, 2B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50 | 35 | 60 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Throughout their long, storied history the Los Angeles Dodgers have drafted just three players out of the University of North Carolina: Howie Freiling (1987, eighth round), Ron Mauer (1990, 23rd round), and – of course – Michael Busch. The 31st overall pick in the 2019 draft class, Busch put together a heavily saber-slanted career with the Tar Heels, particularly his sophomore and junior seasons when he struck out only 69 times against 116 bases-on-balls. Busch dabbled in professional ball following his signing with the club – he appeared in just 10 games – and missed all of 2020 due to the COVID shutdown, so last year’s showing was, in a large part, his first full taste of minor league action. The front office aggressively shoved him up to Double-A, the minors’ most challenging level. In 107 games with the Tulsa Drillers, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound infielder slugged .267/.386/.484 with 27 doubles, one triple, and 20 homeruns. He also swiped two bags in five attempts. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the league average mark by an impressive 34%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Lacking the prototypical size and/or power projection for a first base or corner outfield prospect. Busch, nonetheless, owns an above-average hit tool, 15-homer power potential, and strong on-base peripherals.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria in Double-A with one organization (min. 350 PA): 130 to 140 wRC+, a walk rate of at least 12%, and a strikeout rate north of 25%. Those four hitters: Bradley Zimmer, Drew Ward, Mike Costanzo, and Michael Busch.
The former Tar Heel started the year off without showing any ill effects due to the aggressive assignment – or the low layoff. He’s still showing average power, plus walk rates, and – surprisingly – enough glove to stick at the keystone. His semi-concerning strike rate, 26.1%, improved as the year went on. And he tallied just 23.7% whiff rate over his final 63 games. The lone red flag: his ineptitude against southpaws; he posted a lowly .198/.355/.354 slash line against them (vs. a .288/.396/.524 mark against RHP). There’s above-average starting material – a la Brian Dozier – but he needs to prove he can handle southpaws first.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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6. Eddys Leonard, IF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Like a lot of the club’s top bats in the farm system, Leonard, too, turned in a dynamic, breakout season in 2021. Hailing from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, the Dodgers signed the 6-foot, 160-pound twitchy infielder to a $200,000 bonus during the summer of 2017. The teenage Leonard would make his professional debut a year later with the organization’s Dominican Summer League affiliate, batting a mediocre .248/.385/.396 with 14 extra-base hits in 45 games. Leonard would spend the majority of 2019 season in the state side rookie league, though he made brief stops in the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues. In total, the Dominican middle infielder / third baseman hit .285/.379/.425. Last season, with the return of minor league ball, Leonard torched the Low-A West competition and continued to swing a hot bat during his second half promotion up to High-A. He would finish the year with an aggregate .296/.390/.539 with career bests in doubles (29) and homeruns (22), while tying a career high with four triples. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 45% – another career best, by a wide margin.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in Low-A with one organization (min. 300 PA): 140 to 150 wRC+ total, a double-digit walk rate, and a 23% to 26% strikeout rate. Those four hitters: Nolan Jones, Isan Diaz, Drew Robinson, and Eddys Leonard.
Generously listed as 6-foot and 160-pounds, Leonard had shown doubles power during his first two seasons in the Dodgers’ farm system. Last season, though, he cut down his batted ball rates and began driving the ball more consistently, with more authority. There are some mechanical tweaks in his swing that are still required. For example, his back foot has a tendency to disengage from the ground. Fantastic bat speed. Physically built like Mookie Betts. Leonard is still a man without a defensive position, but there’s starting big league potential here. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .290/.340/.450.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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7. Landon Knack, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 60 | 50 |
The Dodgers have selected just three players out East Tennessee State University throughout their history – Nathan Dunn (1992, 49th round), Clint Freeman (2014, 18th round), and – of course – Landon Knack. Fun Fact Part II: Knack is the second highest player chosen in East Tennessee State University history, trailing former All-Star left-hander Atlee Hammaker by 39 picks. Knack, like fellow Dodgers top pitching prospect Bobby Miller, is a lefty-swinging, righty-throwing hurler. Taken with the 60th pick in the 2020 draft, sandwiched between Bobby Miller and Clayton Beeter, Knack has dealt with a couple of serious injuries throughout his amateur career. As detailed by MLB.com, the 6-foot-2, 220-pound right-hander tore his labrum during a high school game and he dislocated his non-throwing shoulder in 2017. Knack was a good starting pitcher during his first season at East Tennessee State University, but looked like Greg Maddux during his final season with the Southern Conference school in 2020. Before the COVID-imposed shutdown, he posted an absolutely astronomical 51-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 1.08 ERA in 25.0 innings of work. Last season, his first taste of minor league ball, Knack blitzed through High-A in only 10 appearances and continued to dominate Double-A for another six games. In total, he tossed 62.1 innings with 82 punch outs and just eight free passes. He tallied a 3.18 ERA and a 3.38 FIP.
Scouting Report: One of the most, in not the most, consistent strike-throwing machine in the minor leagues. Knack fills up the zone with quality pitches at will. And when he does miss, it’s often on purpose as a chase offering. But the former East Tennessee State University ace isn’t just a soft-tossing, crafty pitcher. He unfurls a plus fastball that sits in the 94- to 96-mph range. He complements it with an average curveball, a 55-grade slider, and a dominating plus changeup. And everything plays up do to his sniper-like precision. Los Angeles has a tremendously deep rotation, as well as a full bushel of arms waiting in the minor leagues, so Knack may get lost in the shuffle. Rick Porcello-type potential.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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8. Maddux Bruns, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: The recipient of the Gatorade Baseball Player of the Year for the state of Alabama after a meteoric senior campaign at UMS-Wright Prep in 2021. Bruns, who was also tabbed by the Alabama Sports Writers Association as the state’s Mr. Baseball, surrendered just 13 hits in 49 innings pitched during his final amateur campaign, striking out 102 against just 19 free passes. He finished the season with a 0.86 ERA (six earned runs). The 6-foot-2, 205-pound southpaw also batted a healthy .337 with a .450 on-base percentage to go along with three dingers and 17 RBIs at the dish as well. The Dodgers snagged the hard-throwing lefty in the opening round, 29th overall. The two sides came to an agreement on a deal worth $2.2 million – slightly below the recommended slot bonus of $2.4 million. Prior to the draft, Bruns was committed to SEC powerhouse Mississippi State University. On a side note: the Miami Marlins selected former UMW-Wright Prep alum – and Mississippi State University product – Tanner Allen in the fourth round of the draft as well. Bruns was named after Greg Maddux, and his middle name, John, is a hat tip to fellow Braves ace John Smoltz. Talk about pressure…
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my post-draft write-up:
“Thick lower body. Bruns features a standard four pitch mix: fastball, curveball, slider, and a changeup. Bruns’ heater sits in the low- to mid-90s, reportedly touching as high as 98 mph at times. He’ll complement the plus offering with a high spin curveball, which averages between 2600 and 2900 RPMs, adding a second plus weapon. His slider flashes above-average. And his changeup adds a fourth weapon in his arsenal. There’s some Max Fried-type potential brewing in his left arm. Very, very strong – and savvy – pick by one of baseball’s best run organizations.”
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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9. Carlos Duran, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | N/A | 50/55 | 55 |
Background: Standing as tall as an NBA shooting guard, it’s hard not to notice the 6-foot-7, 230-pound right-hander. And that’s exactly what the Dodgers did when they saw him throw a baseball – they took notice. The club eventually signed him to a deal worth $300,000 in early 2018. Duran would make his professional debut a few months later in the foreign rookie league. And, as expected, the behemoth right-hander dominated the mere mortal competition as he posted a 1.50 ERA with 30 punch outs and just three free passes in 42.0 innings of work. Duran opened the following season back up in the Dominican Summer League, but after five solid starts, the front office moved him stateside for another eight appearances. Last season, the hard-throwing youngster spent the majority of the year with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, but manage to squeeze in a pair of games in High-A as well. He would throw 81.0 innings, averaging an impressive 12.8 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with a 5.56 ERA and a 4.24 FIP.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 19-year-old pitchers met the following criteria in Low-A with one organization (min. 70 IP): 31% to 33% strikeout percentage and a 6% and 8% walk rate. Those four arms: Danny Duffy, Shelby Miller, Joey Estes, and – of course – Carlos Duran.
- For those wondering: Duffy’s been an above-average, though oft-injured, pitcher during his career; Shelby Miller once looked to be one of the best young pitchers in the game before crashing in his mid-20s; and Joey Estes is one of the Braves best young arms.
Duran does the one thing that gigantic pitchers aren’t supposed to do: throw consistent strikes. What’s even more impressive: he was a teenager doing so. But the young, baby-faced Dominican does just that – with a pair of plus offerings. Duran’s fastball sits in the 93- to 96-mph range and touched as high as 98 mph during the summer. And his slider is a legitimate power breaking ball with severe downward tumble. Reports indicate he throws a below-average changeup, though I did not see one. With that being said, Duran may continue to dominate the low levels of the minor leagues with his fastball / slider combo, but he needs to establish at least a reliable third offering. He looks like a candidate that may succeed throwing a splitter. Reliever risk with one of the larger ceilings as a pitcher in the farm system.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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10. Clayton Beeter, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 60 | N/A | 50 | 50 |
Background: Very rarely will there be a collegiate pitcher with 40 or so innings on their resume, across multiple seasons, hear their name called as earlier as Beeter. After redshirting his freshman season because of a pair of surgical procedures on his right elbow, the burly 6-foot-2, 220-pound right-hander spent the 2019 season in the Red Raiders’ bullpen, saving eight games with 40 strikeouts and 20 walks in only 20.2 innings of work. Beeter got off to an absurdly dominating start to the 2020 season, averaging 14.1 strikeouts and just 1.7 walks per nine innings with a 2.14 ERA across four starts before COVID prematurely ended the collegiate season. Los Angeles selected the Texas-born righty in the second round, 66th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1,196,500. The front office pushed the promising hurler straight into High-A to begin his debut last season. And after 23 brief appearances with the Loons, he wrapped up his successful first season with a five-game cameo at Double-A. Beeter tossed 52.1 innings last season, averaging 13.4 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with an aggregate 3.44 ERA and a matching 3.44 FIP.
Scouting Report: Possesses some of the best pure “stuff” in the entire organization – which is saying something given the Dodgers’ lengthy history of pitching development success. Beeter attacks hitters with a 95- to 97-mph plus fastball with extreme life above the belt. He consistently moves the offering around the strike zone and doesn’t shy away from attacking hitters in under their hands. He complements the offering with a pair of plus breaking balls: a low-80s 12-6 hammer of a curveball, though it does lack a bit of consistency, and a wipeout, knee-buckling high-80s slider. Various reports indicate the former Texas Tech hurler will throw a changeup, though I never saw one in either game I scouted. Given Beeter’s lack of innings on the mound in college, Los Angeles closely governed his workload early in the season before stretching him out to three-inning stints late in the year. There’s definite reliever risk, and it remains to be seen whether Beeter can turnover a lineup without a changeup, but the Dodgers develop arms as well as any club.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2023
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
