In one of the bigger pleasant surprises in recent team memory, the newly christened Guardians locked up their franchise cornerstone, Jose Ramirez, to a massive five-year, $124 million in early April. A pact, by the way, that includes a full no-trade clause.
Ramirez, who has long been the best player on the ball club (even prior to Francisco Lindor’s defection), added a well needed shot of excitement in a completely dismal offseason for Cleveland.
The first thought that ran through my mind as soon as the deal was announced: What are Ramirez’s Hall of Fame odds?
Maybe it’s the team, or even the market the team plays in, but Ramirez has always felt a bit underappreciated – perhaps, even in Cleveland, at times. But he’s also been one of the best players on the planet since his breakout campaign in 2016.
In fact, between 2016 and 2021, only three everyday players have eclipsed 30 wins above replacement (FanGraphs): Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and – of course – Jose Ramirez. (Note: Ramirez’s former teammate, Lindor, ranks fourth, by the way.)
So, from a high level, peak-type performance you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone that wouldn’t list Trout and Betts as future HoF’ers.
Let’s continue…
From the beginning of professional baseball there have been 179 different hitters that have accrued at least 30 wins above replacement (Baseball Reference) before their 29th birthday. The usual names populate the top of the list. Guys like: Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby (who always seems to be underappreciate when compared to his contemporaries or placement in history), the aforementioned Mike Trout, and Mickey Mantle. But there’s a ton of noteworthy guys at the bottom of the list as well, like: Pete Rose, Roberto Clemente, Bobby Abreu, and Manny Ramirez. It’s also important to point out that the list is littered with guys that never made it to the Hall of Fame, like Fred Lynn, Will Clark, and Buddy Bell.
Ramirez, by the way, ranks as the 109th best total among the group, sandwiched between Rod Carew and David Wright.
Let’s narrow the search parameters a bit and look at the following criteria: 30 to 38 bWAR with an OPS+ between 120 and 130.
That leaves us with 24 players (excluding active guys like Ramirez, Carlos Correa, and Jose Altuve), including:
- Seven members of the Hall of Fame – Derek Jeter, Ted Simmons, Joe Morgan, Joe Gordon, Rod Carew, Tony Lazzeri, and Jake Beckley.
- Five guys that should be in the Hall of Fame: Bobby Grich, Scott Rolen, Reggie Smith, Bill Dahlen, and – if you’re feeling generous – Sal Bando.
- The list also includes one guy who’s in the Hall for managing and has a solid argument as a player (Joe Torre), plus the All-Time Hit King (Pete Rose).
The guys in the Hall and the arguments for guys that should be in the Hall make up roughly 54% of the list.
Now let’s take a look at defensive positioning. Consider the following:
- There are only 17 third basemen currently in the Hall of Fame. Ignoring (though, not downplaying) the wonderful players from the Negro Leagues, who stats are incomplete – at best – and Deacon White, who played well before 1900, that leaves us with 13 third baseman.
- Those thirteen are: Frank “Home Run” Baker, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Jimmy Collins, Chipper Jones, George Kell, Freddie Lindstrom, Eddie Mathews, Paul Molitor, Brooks Robinson, Ron Santo, Mike Schmidt, and Pie Traylor.
And here’s the WAR totals (BR) from each of the aforementioned 13, along with Ramirez, through their age-28 season:
- Eddie Mathews: 60.5
- Ron Santo: 52.1
- George Brett: 48.9
- Mike Schmidt: 42.4
- Frank “Home Run” Baker: 42.2
- Wade Boggs: 35.1
- Jose Ramirez: 34.4
- Chipper Jones: 32.6
- Brooks Robinson: 30.5
- Freddie Lindstrom: 28.5
- Paul Molitor: 27.4
- George Kell: 25.3
- Pie Traynor: 17.2
- Jimmy Collins: 16.0
Ignoring the fact that a – strong – argument could be made that Lindstrom, Kell, Traynor, and Collins shouldn’t be in the HoF, third base is pretty underrepresented. While Ramirez’s production snuggly slides in between a couple a surefire, no-doubters in Wade Boggs and Chipper Jones, there’s also a steep decline not soon after.
Is Jose Ramirez a future Hall of Famer? I think so. The Cleveland fan in me certainly hopes so. But he’s going to need at least another 30 WAR to get to that point. If he can maintain status quo beginning in 2022 through the end of 2024, he’s likely going to tally about 18 wins above replacement. There will be a slight decline for two years, figure another eight wins combined – which puts his total through the age of 33 around 60.4. Two or three league average seasons makes it a very strong case at that point.
