The 2021 season got off to a bit of a rocky start for the Jarred Kelenic. The ballyhooed former top prospect made waves when he – along with his representation – went on record with USAToday’s Bob Nightengale in late February, convinced that the Seattle organization was manipulating his service time after refusing to sign a contract extension.
The front office, of course, came out and denied it. Less than three months later Kelenic, the sixth overall pick in 2018, was promoted up to the big leagues.
And he failed. Miserably.
The toolsy outfielder batted a paltry .181/.265/.350 in 377 plate appearances.
But things began to look up for Kelenic at the start of this season. He showed some offensive promise in 13 Spring Training games, slugging .265/.324/.559 while fanning just nine times in 37 plate appearances (24.3%). He would crack the club’s Opening Lineup, hitting sixth, but continued to fail – and flail at big league pitching.
Friday evening the club demoted their once destined franchise cornerstone back down to the minor leagues and there was already one prominent sportswriter leaping from the bandwagon.
So the question that begs to be answered: What does the future hold for Jarred Kelenic, the former consensus Top 10 prospect?
Before looking towards the future, one needs to study the past.
Let’s take a look at how similarly performing players this young have fared through their respective careers.
- Since 1945, there have been 37 players that have posted a sub-70 OPS+ across 400 or more plate appearances during their age 21 and 22 seasons.
- Of those 37 hitters, only four of them posted a strikeout rate of 25% or greater: Matt Williams, Jonathan Schoop, Benji Gil, and Jarred Kelenic.
Consider the following:
| Player | PA | Age | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | HR | BB% | K% | OPS+ |
| Jarred Kelenic | 473 | 21-22 | 473 | 0.173 | 0.256 | 0.338 | 17 | 9.51% | 30.02% | 68 |
| Matt Williams | 436 | 21-22 | 436 | 0.195 | 0.244 | 0.367 | 16 | 5.50% | 25.00% | 68 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 496 | 21-22 | 496 | 0.211 | 0.246 | 0.358 | 17 | 2.82% | 25.00% | 67 |
| Benji Gil | 454 | 22-22 | 454 | 0.219 | 0.266 | 0.347 | 9 | 5.73% | 32.38% | 57 |
Williams, of course, would go on to play 17 seasons in the big leagues, hitting .268/.317/.489 with 378 homeruns, five All-Star appearances, and four Silver Slugger awards. Schoop – almost unbelievably – is in his tenth big league campaign (man, do I feel old), sporting a .258/.297/.441 slash line with 165 career homeruns and one All-Star nod. And Gil’s hitting never materialized, but he did spend parts of eight years with the Rangers and Angels.
That’s encouraging, so let’s dive deeper.
The lefty-swinging Kelenic never showed any concerning platoon splits during his meteoric rise through the minor leagues. He batted .409/.490/.636 against fellow southpaws during an abbreviated sample size in 2018. And he posted a decent enough .261/.337/.421 slash line against lefties the following year (compared to .299/.371/.569) when he was 19-year-old.
But he’s shown some concerning issues against left-handers during his couple stints in the big leagues, though.
Along with batting a putrid .166/.236/.238 in 165 plate appearances, Kelenic’s been incredibly susceptible to breaking balls from lefties. Baseball Savant shows he has a 64.7 whiff% against breaking balls in 2022 and a 41.9% showing the year before.
And now the worse news: his expected stats against any breaking balls and offspeed pitches from either handed hurler is awful:
It’s important to remember that Kelenic is just22-years-old. And had he gone to college, he would have been drafted last year and just entering his first full season of pro ball, not his fourth.
He also looked incredibly good during his stint couples stints in Triple-A last year as well.
There’s a precedent for a young hitter to bounce back and have a long productive big league career. But, man, he has to learn how to consistently hit offspeed pitches at the big league level for that to happen.
