Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2024 Prospect Digest Handbook here.
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1. Noelvi Marte, 3B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: The meccaof middle infield talent quietly resides in the Midwest, nestled within the franchises in northeast and southern Ohio were the Guardians and Reds have hoarded second basemen and shortstops like prospectors mining for precious metals. Cincinnati, in particular, boasts a deep, bountiful collection of middle infielders – despite the recent graduations of Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain. With the impending free agency of ace Luis Castillo looming large over the organization like a pall at a funeral, the front office did the prudent thing: they dealt him away to the highest bidder, of course putting an emphasis on middle infield talent. Cincinnati would ship the three-time All-Star to Seattle in exchange for Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Andrew Moor, and Levi Stoudt at the trade deadline two years ago. Marte being the gem of the package. Signed off the international free agency market in 2018, Marte blossomed into a perennial consensus Top 100 prospect over the past couple years. In 2022, the 6-foot, 216-pound infielder batted .279/.371/.458 with 23 doubles and 19 homeruns between both organizations’ High-A affiliates. Last season, the Cotui, Dominican Republic native appeared in 92 games between Chattanooga and Louisville, the Reds’ Double-A and Triple-A farm teams, slugging .279/.358/.454 with 20 doubles, four triples, 11 homeruns, and 18 stolen bases (including his three-game rehab stint). His overall minor league production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 10%. He also appeared in 35 games with Cincinnati, putting together an impressive .316/.366/.456 slash line.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Not nearly the type of impact player that Elly De La Cruz is – or will be at the Major League level – Marte, nonetheless, owns a high upside ceiling. Loose, quick swing with plus bat speed and the chance to grow into an above-average hit tool. Strong contact and walk rates. Above-average power potential – even though he spent a lot of 2022 in Everett’s homer-inducing ballpark. He’s never going to be confused with Ozzie Smith, but he has the chops to stay at the position.
Scouting Report: With a bevy of strong infield options at the big league level like Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Jonathan India in place, it’s not surprising that the Reds’ brass started shifting Marte around the infield dirt last season, adding the hot corner to his list of potential landing spots. He’s a decent glove, but the bat will play anywhere. Marte’s put on considerable bulk to his once wiry frame, adding roughly 35 pounds over the past couple of years. Solid in-zone contact numbers, the lone knock on Marte’s approach is his willingness to expand the zone a bit too frequently. Above-average power, he profiles as a consistent 20- to 25-homer threat at the big league level. In terms of MLB production, think: .270/.335/.440. He’s still tracking like a Gleyber Torres-type performer.
Update: Marte was recently popped and suspended for PEDs.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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2. Rhett Lowder, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Surprisingly, or perhaps not, Wake Forest hasn’t produced a whole lot of notable – or valuable – big league talent in its history. Former second rounder Erik Hanson tops the list of most valuable former Demon Deacons, earning more than 20 Wins Above Replacement (BR) in his 11-year career. And then there’s a massive drop off. Mike MacDougal, the former hard-throwing reliever / closer, and crafty soft-tossing right-hander Dave Bush, both of whom tallied less than 4.0 WAR in their respective big league careers, rank second and third on the list. Beyond big league value, the ACC-based school hasn’t produced many early first rounders in their history either – just one Deacon, Kyle Sleeth, was taken among the top 10 picks in the midsummer draft. Rhett Lowder eventually joined Sleeth. Lowder, a 6-foot-2, 200-pound right-hander, was a dynamo on the mound during his time at North Stanly High School. And if it wasn’t for COVID prematurely ending his senior season, Lowder may have heard his name called during the 2020 Draft. He would fan 27 hitters (against just one free pass) in only 13.2 innings during his final season. Despite that, as well as being named the 12th best prospect in North Carolina, he didn’t garner a whole lot of attention from large programs. He ended up choosing Wake Forest over smaller baseball schools like UNCW, Appalachian State, and Campbell. But Lowder immediately flashed some serious upside as a freshman – despite an ERA bloated north of 6.00. He would average 10.4 punch outs and just 2.9 walks per nine innings across 12 starts and a pair of relief appearances. His sophomore season saw a major regression back to the norm on his ERA (3.08) as he continued to miss bats (9.5 K/9) and limit walks (2.4 BB/9). But the native North Carolinian took the final step towards collegiate stardom during his junior campaign. Last season, the big righty averaged 10.7 strikeouts and just 1.8 walks per nine innings to go along with a dazzling 1.87 ERA and a perfect 15-and-0 record. Cincinnati selected him in the opening round, 7th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $5.7 million. He did not make his pro debut in 2023.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, only six (6) ACC hurlers average fewer than 2.0 walks and more than 10.0 punch outs per nine innings in a season (min. 90 IP): Danny Hultzen, Tyler Wilson, Luke Weaver, Charlie Barnes, Parker Messick, and – of course – Rhett Lowder.
Very impressive three pitch mix: 93- to 94-mph, above-average fastball, a plus upper-80s slider, and an above-average power changeup sitting in the upper 80s. Not only does Lowder command the zone well, earning a plus grade, but he commands it well with all three pitches – which allows them to play up. He’s one of the safer picks in the college draft class, showing a high floor with the mid-level ceiling – something along the lines of a good #3-type hurler.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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3. Edwin Arroyo, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 45/50 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: The second biggest prospect the club acquired in the Luis Castillo swap with Seattle two years ago, Arroyo, a second round pick in 2021, turned in a bit of a breakout campaign in 2022 as he slugged .293/.366/.480 with both organizations. Last season, the Reds’ brass sent the 6-foot, 175-pound shortstop up to the Midwest League, becoming one of just three qualified teenage bats in the level. Arroyo put together a .248/.321/.427 slash line with 26 doubles, 10 triples, 13 homeruns, and 28 stolen bases (in 35 total attempts). His overall production with the Dayton Dragons, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 8% above the league average mark. Arroyo also appeared in a quartet of Double-A contests as well, going 6-for-17 with two doubles and a triple across 20 plate appearances.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Arroyo has quietly become one of the better shortstop prospects in the minor leagues and most haven’t realized it yet. Better than expected power from one of the youngest players in the 2021 draft class. A big breakout is coming in 2023. He’s the second best shortstop prospect in the Reds’ system, which is saying something nowadays.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 19-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): 103 to 113 wRC+, a 7% to 10% walk rate, and a 20% to 22% whiff rate. Those two hitters: Wendell Rijo, who has yet to make his big league debut despite now entering his late-20s, and – of course – Edwin Arroyo.
An above-average defender at a premium position, Arroyo’s overall numbers were deflated by a pathetic showing during the first two months of the season; he hit a lowly .182/.234/.311 across his first 36 games. Beginning on May 31st through the rest of the year, a span of 89 contests, the former second rounder slugged .281/.360/.480. He continues to show average power potential with speed and he makes consistent contact. Arroyo has one of the more recognizable (read: odd) stances at the plate: crouched low, wide open, almost like he’s sitting on corner chair, but the head remains still throughout. Lightning quick bat that’s made for peppering line drives. Big league production: .290/.340/.410.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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4. Connor Phillips, RHP
| FB | CB | SW | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 40 | 55 |
Background: Four months before the Mariners and Reds got together on the big Luis Castillo swap, the two organizations worked out a deal for veterans Eugenio Suarez, an All-Star in 2018, and Jesse Winker, who was coming off of his own All-Star campaign. The return package: Justin Dunn, Jake Fraley, Brandon Williamson, and a PTBNL, which turned out to be Connor Phillips, a former second rounder. Here’s a breakdown of the results: Suarez was Suarez for two seasons in Seattle before he was traded this offseason to Arizona; Winkler completely flopped in one season with the Mariners’ uniform and – somehow – looked even worse in 2023. As for the Reds’ trove of prospects: Fraley has been a very solid, above-average part-time slugger for the Reds; Williamson was a competent backend starter during his debut season last year; Dunn flopped; and Phillips has emerged as one of the more underrated pitching prospects in the minor leagues. Splitting his 2023 season between Chattanooga and Louisville, Phillips hurled 105.0 innings while averaging 13.2 strikeouts and 4.9 walks per nine innings to go along with a reasonably looking 3.86 ERA and a slightly better 3.71 FIP. He also made five starts with Cincy, posting a 26-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 20.2 innings of work.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: You could make the argument – and a rather convincing one – that he’s one of the better starting pitching prospects most people haven’t quite discovered. Just like former Red Tyler Mahle, who I wrote extensively about over the years. Obvious reliever risk due to command issues. But he’s already logged nearly half of a season in Double-A before his age-22 season. Maybe 85% of a healthy Tyler Glasnow.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only five 22-year-old hurlers tallied at least a 35% strikeout percentage with one club in any Double-A league (min. 60 IP): Cristian Javier, Spencer Strider, Joey Cantillo, Yimi Garcia, and the forever underrated Connor Phillips.
To put it bluntly: when Phillips is on and throwing strikes, there are very few minor league arms that could go toe-to-toe with him. Mid- to upper-90s fastball that sits in the 94- to 97-mph range with hop. Two plus breaking balls: a low 80s curveball and a mid-80s sweeper / slider with the latter being the slightly better option. Phillips will also mix in a rare, average upper 80s / low 90s changeup. The only thing standing in Phillips’ way towards pitching near – or at – the top of a big league rotation is the command. It’s below average, not career damning, and he was throwing more strikes in Double-A than at any other point in his career.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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5. Sal Stewart, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 45/55 | 35/30 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The 2022 draft brought about an interesting little tidbit about the Reds, high school third basemen, and the Major League Draft. When the front office grabbed prep phenom Sal Stewart with the 32nd overall pick, it marked the first time the organization selected a high school third baseman in the opening round of the draft since 1977 when they snagged Tad Venger (two picks ahead of Dave Henderson, by the way). Stewart’s selection also was just the third time in franchise history the selected a hot cornerman from the prep ranks; the other being the immortal Bernie Carbo. A product of Westminster Christian School, Stewart made a brief, eight-game cameo in the Complex League after joining the club, batting .292/.393/.458. And, surprisingly enough, the 6-foot-3, 215-pound infielder came close to replicating that production line in 2023, despite spending time with Daytona and Dayton. Appearing in 117 games between the franchise’s Low-A and High-A affiliates, Stewart batted .275/.396/.416 with 24 doubles, 12 homeruns, and 15 stolen bases. His total production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 28%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: When Stewart connects it’s like an explosion. Really, really good looking swing – especially considering that power is Stewart’s main asset. Impressive speed and explosion throughout his rotation. It wouldn’t be overly shocking to see Stewart consistently post better-than-average contact rates. There’s definitely some Triston Casas-type potential here. Very, very savvy pick by the Cincinnati Reds front office.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 19-year-old bats posted a 123 to 133 wRC+ with a 14% to 16% K-rate with a double-digit walk rate with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): Geraldo Perdomo, Brice Turang, Diego Velasquez, and Sal Stewart.
Making Stewart’s overall production line even more impressive is recognizing just how cold his bat was during the first two months of the season: the former first rounder hit an icy .211/.355/.263 over his first 38 games. After that, though, he rebounded to slug .305/.416/.486 over his remaining 80 contests. I love Stewart’s swing. Easy, fluid, athletic. He doesn’t possess blazing bat speed, but the pitch recognition is strong to help compensate. He has power to all fields and he’s just beginning to realize that during games. As noted in last year’s Handbook, there’s the potential to slide across the diamond to first base, though the early returns at the hot corner have been promising.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2026
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6. Carlos Jorge, 2B/CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50/55 | 55 | 50 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: Signed off the international free agency wire in mid-January two years ago, Jorge joined the rebuilding organization on a deal worth a smidgeon less than half-a-million dollars, adding to their ever growing collection of toolsy, high upside middle infield prospects. The 5-foot-10, 160-pound second baseman / centerfielder turned in an explosive debut that summer in the foreign rookie league, mashing .346/.436/.579 with eight doubles, 10 triples, three homeruns, and 27 stolen bases. Jorge spent the following season in the stateside rookie league where he continued to showcase some impressive offensive firepower potential: .261/.405/.529 with 16 extra-base knocks in 42 contests. Last season, Jorge appeared in 109 games between Daytona (86) in the Florida State League and Dayton (23) in the Midwest League, slugging an aggregate .282/.374/.464 with 14 doubles, 10 triples, 12 homeruns, and 32 stolen bases (in 41 total attempts). Per FanGraphs’ Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production blew past the league average production by 29%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s some potential stardom developing here. He’s one to remember over the next couple of years. He could pop in a very big way.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): 135 to 145 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and a strikeout rate between 18.5% to 20.5%. Those two bats: former MVP Christian Yelich and – of course – Carlos Jorge.
Again, because of the middle infield logjam the Reds are dealing with, it’s not surprising to see the front office begin to experiment with Jorge in centerfield. He’s a dynamic athlete that’s looked reasonably well at his new position, though he does remain quite raw. His approach at the plate belies his youth. He’s picky and has shown the talent to spit on pitches just outside the strike zone. The wiry infielder / outfielder shows an explosive bat and doesn’t get cheated. He also packs considerable pop for a 5-foot-10, 160-pounder. Present average power with the potential to move into above-average territory. He should spend some considerable time in Double-A in 2024, and it may not be out of the question to send him directly up to the minors’ toughest level at the start of the year. Sneakily toolsy, readily apparently good.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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7. Cam Collier, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 40/55 | 30 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: There were very few – and, to be honest, likely no one – that was as high on Cam Collier coming into the 2022 draft as I was. Not only did Lou’s kid have the tools and bloodlines, but he was one of the youngest players in the draft, had a successful year at a JuCo, and spent some time in the Cape Cod League. He had everything you’d want into a potential top pick. And I ate it up. Then Collier, who slipped to the Reds at the 18th overall pick, torched the Arizona Complex League during his abbreviated debut, slugging .370/.514/.630 with a double and two dingers in only nine contests. Then someone pumped the breaks on the Collier Express. Cincinnati sent the 6-foot-2, 210-pound third baseman up to Daytona for 2023. But he struggled making the conversion to full-season action. Appearing in 111 games with the Tortugas of the Florida State League, the former first rounder batted a disappointing .246/.349/.356 with 21 doubles, two triples, six homeruns, and five stolen bases (in six total attempts). His overall production, as measured by FanGraphs’ Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 2% below the league average threshold.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Collier’s one of my favorite prep prospects in the class – enough so, that I might make him the top pick – especially if he takes a discount.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 18-year-old hitters posted a 95 to 105 wRC+ with a 22% to 24% strikeout rate with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): Omar Estevez, the former Dodgers top prospect, and – of course – Cam Collier.
The former 18th overall pick got into an early season funk that he just could not shake. Collier hit a disappointing .211/.316/.323 across his first 67 games. But beginning on July 18th through the rest of the season (45 games), the lefty-swinging infielder slugged .298/.397/.405 with nine doubles, one triple, and a pair of homeruns. His overall production during that stint topped the league average mark by 23%. So let’s update the report a bit, shall we? Here’s what we know:
#1. Thanks to his reclassification, Collier’s entering what would be his first full season in the minor leagues. It’s important to remember just how young he is.
#2. The bat speed is phenomenal.
#3. The power didn’t play as well as expected, even during his second half surge.
#4. He can be pitched to. More specifically: the pitch recognition isn’t stellar and he’ll expand the zone against breaking balls, particularly low ones.
Two years ago I made the argument – or statement – that I would consider him as the top player in the draft, if he was willing to take a discount because, well, I thought he was destined to be a star. Now, though, he looks like a potential solid third baseman: good glove, above-average power, 40- to 45-grade hit tool. Again, it’s important to remember just how young he is, especially for a pick with a JuCo season on his resume.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2026
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8. Chase Petty, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Background: The Reds’ front office was incredibly busy throughout 2022, making a flurry of trades including two major trades each with the Mariners (Luis Castillo and Eugenio Suarez / Jesse Winkler) and the Twins (Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray). And, surprisingly, the Reds did very, very well in each of those four deals, adding the likes of Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer, Connor Phillips, Brandon Williamson, Jake Fraley, and Chase Petty to the fold. The lone player received from the Twins as part of the return for veteran ace Sonny Gray and minor leaguer Francis Peguero, Petty owned one of the top heaters in the 2021 draft class, convincing the Twins to use the 26th overall pick on him. Petty would miss the first several weeks of last season dealing with a sore elbow, but would eventually make his debut in early May. He would go on to make eighteen starts with Dayton (16) and Chattanooga (two) lasting no more than four innings. He hurled 68.0 innings of work, tallying a tidy 1.68 ERA while averaging 8.7 strikeouts and just 2.0 walks per nine innings.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He’s far more polished than the typical flame-throwing high schooler.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, eight 20-year-old hurlers tallied a 24% to 26% strikeout percentage with a 5% to 7% walk percentage with one club in any High-A league (min. 60 IP): Noah Syndergaard, Hector Rondón, Brett Anderson, Randall Delgado, Sean Gallagher, Clayton Blackburn, Adalberto Mejia, and Chase Petty.
Petty’s one of the more interesting pitching prospects, not only in Cincinnati’s boiling farm system but arguably in all of the minor leagues. His once triple-digit touching fastball continues to sit in the 94-mph range, which is fine. It’s still good enough to get upper level minor leaguers and MLB hitters out on a consistent basis. But Petty pitches like he’s throwing 84-mph. Meaning: he pitches backwards, relying heavily on his plus slider and above-average changeup and only sprinkling in his 50-grade heater. His fastball, by the way, wasn’t missing too many bats, so – much to his credit – he’s adapted incredibly well to the professional ranks. The command, especially with the offspeed pitches, is above-average. He’s not going to front a big league rotation, or maybe never slides into a mid-rotation spot, but he has the chops / poise to be an average starter.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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9. Ty Floyd, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 55 | 45 | 50 |
Background: There aren’t too many college ballplayers that add an exclamation point to their amateur careers quite like Ty Floyd did in 2023. A product of Rockmart High School, Floyd’s performance in the opening game of the finals in the College World Series was extraordinarily brilliant, dominant, and – likely – added quite a bit of draft money to his bank account because the baseball world saw what he was capable of. Squaring off against one of the most potent lineups in college baseball, the 6-foot-2, 200-pound right-hander flummoxed and confused the Gators over 8 impressive innings, striking out the most hitters (17) in a College World Series game since Eddie Bane in 1972, twenty-nine years before Floyd was born. Floyd would begin his collegiate career working out of the Tigers’ bullpen in 2021, posting a 39-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24.1 innings of work. The coaching staff would bump the hard-throwing hurler into the rotation the following year, his sophomore campaign, and he more than held his own: 59.2 innings, 70 punch outs, 23 walks, and a 3.77 ERA. Last season, Floyd set a career high in innings pitched (91.0) as he averaged 11.9 punch outs and 3.7 walks per nine innings to go along with a 4.35 ERA and a perfect 7-and-0 win-loss record. Cincinnati would sign the LSU ace to a deal worth $2,097,500 after selecting him with the 38th overall pick last summer. He did not make his affiliated debut after joining the organization.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, only four SEC arms posted a K-rate between 11.5 K/9 and 12.5 K/9 with a walk rate between 3.5 BB/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in a season (min. 70 IP): Carson Fulmer, Jake Cantleberry, Christian MacLeod, & Ty Floyd.
Floyd normally works in the 93- to 96-mph with his heater, but can touch the upper 90s when he reaches back (like in his final collegiate start). Quite simply, his fastball was unhittable during that start. All but three of his 17 punch outs were on the heater. He backs it up with a pair of above-average offerings: a low- to mid-80s slider and a sneakily good changeup. Floyd’s performance in the final game likely pushed him into the back of the first round. Cleveland seems like an ideal candidate. Mid-rotation caliber potential. The command can be spotty at times.”
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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10. Julian Aguiar, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
Background: JuCo Cypress College may not be a regular baseball hotbed, but the California-based school has quietly churned out a surprising number of draft picks throughout the years. One hundred and eight, to be exact. The Reds, however, own just two of those selections: Daniel Ponce de Leon, who would go on to be drafted four times, the last by the Cardinals, and – of course – Julian Aguiar. A 12th round pick by the club in 2021, the 6-foot-3, 180-pound right-hander made the transition to the Florida State League look easy two years ago, sporting a 103-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 88.1 innings of work. And he capped off his wildly successful first full pro season with a pair of starts in the Midwest League, easily surpassing the modest expectations laid in front of a late round pick. Last season, however, the former JuCo ace continued to impress in his return to High-A, as well as holding his own in 11 starts with Chattanooga in the fires of Double-A. He finished the year with 125 innings of work spread across 25 starts, averaging 9.9 strikeouts and just 2.7 walks per nine innings with a 2.95 ERA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hurlers posted a 25.5% to 27.5% strikeout percentage with a 4.5% to 6.5% walk percentage with one club in any Double-A league (min. 50 IP): Jeremy Hellickson, Joe Ross, Tyler Mahle, and Julian Aguiar.
For those counting at home:
Hellickson, Ross, and Mahle all have at least one big league season in which they tallied at least 2.0 WAR (FanGraphs).
A really quality three-pitch arsenal, much better than (A) I was expecting and (B) anyone would expect out of a recent late round pick from a JuCo. Aguiar’s above-average heater sits in the 94- to 95-mph range and touched as high as 97 mph during a start I scouted. It’s a bit too straight for my liking, but he commands it well, which helps. A lot reports indicate he throws a curveball and a slider. It appears, at least from what I witnessed, they’re one in the same – a singular breaking ball, a knuckle curveball, to be exact. His upward bending pointer finger (the spike) is clearly visible in his glove. It’s an above average, albeit a little inconsistent, pitch. His best overall offering is a plus changeup with tremendous velocity separation and some impressive, sometimes breaking ball-esque movement. The control’s a 55, but the actual command is average. There’s definite big league starting material, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him surpass a lot of expectations in the coming years.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
