Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Brennen Davis, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
Background: The Cubs made their bones – and built their World Series championship – around young hitters, either acquired through the draft or via trade. And then for some reason, the front office decided to veer off course. Pitchers, and not even hard-throwing, high-ceiling ones, became en vogue for the front office. Then the fire sale happened. During that sell off last season the front office – once again – started targeting young, high upside hitters like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kevin Alcantara while some of their own young hitters took massive strides forward. Like Brennen Davis. A second round pick out of Basha High School, 62nd overall, in 2018, Davis’s production exploded as he rocketed through three levels, going from High-A to Double-A, and then onto Triple-A. In total, the 6-foot-4, 210-pound outfielder slugged a hearty .260/.375/.494 with 25 doubles, 19 homeruns, and eight stolen bases (in 12 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Davis’s overall production topped the average mark by a whopping 44% – the best showing in the organization by any stateside player, by a wide margin.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: As for Davis, he has the potential to be a special, special talent: blossoming power that should settle in as an above-average weapon, above-average hit tool, solid speed, a decent glove, phenomenal contact rates, and a willingness to walk a bit.
Scouting Report: The good news:
- Since 2006, only six 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 300 PA): 130 to 140 wRC+ with a walk rate between 10.5% and 12.5%. Those six hitters: Alek Thomas, Brandon Marsh, Matt Davidson, Chance Sisco, Arismendy Alcantara, and – of course – Brennen Davis.
- The problem for Davis, though, and what separates him from the rest of the group is his massive K-rate during his Double-A stint: he whiffed in 30.7% of his plate appearances, considerably more than any other hitter in the group.
A few reasons to not fret over Davis’s “concerning” 30+% strikeout rate in Double-A:
- Age. He was just 21-years-old playing against the most difficult minor league level.
- Track Record: Beyond the stint in Double-A last season, Davis’s strikeout numbers in rookie ball, Low-A, High-A, and Triple-A have been no greater than 22.1%.
There’s a chance the bat develops into an above-average tool, though it’s certainly no worse than average – even on bad days. Blossoming power that could peak in the 30-homer territory. Enough speed to keep pitchers and catchers honest. And a good enough glove to man center.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/60 | 50/55 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Rebuilding their farm system after years of mostly failed draft classes. Chicago got together with the Mets on a big mid-year deal last season, agreeing to send All-Star fan favorite Javier Baez and veteran right-handed starting pitcher Trevor Williams in exchange for Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs also sent cash to the wealthy wallet of the Mets to complete the deal as well. A toolsy 6-foot-1, 180-pound center fielder, New York selected Crow-Armstrong in the opening round two years ago, 19th overall, and handed him a hefty $3,359,000 bonus. The Harvard-Westlake High School product, like all minor leaguers, lost a season of development time due to COVID-19, and – unfortunately – his 2021 season was cut short because of a torn right labrum and cartilage injury. Prior to hitting the DL, he was slugging a healthy .417/.563/.500 through six games and 32 plate appearances.
Scouting Report: Still an unknown after two years of professional ball. With limited game tape and no reliable numbers to work off of. But what I did find from 2021 leaves no doubt that (A) the Cubs have a franchise cornerstone bat and (B) the Mets’ failure to make the playoffs will only exacerbate their failings in the trade. Short, sweet stroke with gobs of bat speed. The simplicity of the swing reminds me of a young Joey Votto. I’m really impressed by his willingness to take outside pitches the opposite way. The sky could be the limit for Crow-Armstrong. And the only reason I’m ranking him second behind Davis is simply little information to go off of.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Kevin Alcantara, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50/60 | 50/40 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Not that the Javier Baez deal was a particularly easy pill to swallow, but for me the deals of Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant were incredibly difficult as a baseball fan. Rizzo and Bryant were the faces of the Cubs’ resurgence in a lot of way. But at the end of last July Chicago dealt their former first baseman to the Yankees for a two-player package: right-hander Alexander Vizcaino and center fielder Kevin Alcantara. Signed out of the Dominican Republic for a million dollars in early July 2018, Alcantara split time between both organizations’ Complex League affiliates. In 34 total games, the 6-foot-6, 188-pound man-child slugged .345/.423/.588 with four doubles, five triples, and five homeruns. His overall production topped the league average by 60%, per Weighted Runs Created Plus.
Scouting Report: A nice, easy swing that generates plenty of loft and pure power. The ball just flies off of Alcantara’s bat. He’s the type of prospect where things appear to come quite easy for him. Very, very projectable. The batted ball data, according to FanGraphs, is solid too: his average exit velocity was already at an MLB average (88 mph) with a peak of 106 mph. There’s the potential for superstardom, but I’m hesitant to fully commit until he gets a year in Low-A, which will happen in 2022. He could be an impact player on both sides of the ball.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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4. Cristian Hernandez, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 50/60 | 55/50 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Ranked as the sixth best prospect on the international market by MLB.com last season. Chicago pulled out all the stops and signed 6-foot-2, 175-pound shortstop to a massive $3 million on January 15, 2021. Hailing from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Hernandez spent last season in the hitter-friendly confines of the Dominican Summer League. Appearing in 47 games, the then-17-year-old put together a solid .285/.398/.424 slash line, belting out five doubles, one triple, and five homeruns. He also swiped 21 bags. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 32%.
Scouting Report: A very natural feel for hitting. Hernandez is big, wiry, and projectable. And the Dominican-born shortstop already owns average power with the potential to develop plus thump at a premium position. Despite being big for his age, the soon-to-be 18-year-old is incredibly smooth at shortstop as well. And as long as he doesn’t get too big he should have no problems manning the position. In terms of big league lines think: .280/.350/.475.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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5. James Triantos, 2B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/60 | 50/60 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Benefiting from the change – or tweak – in draft eligibility rules, Triantos was originally part of the high school class of 2022. But, as MLB.com points out, he reclassified and became eligible for last year’s July draft. A two-way star for James Madison High School in Vienna, Virginia, Chicago went well-above draft slot to sign their second round pick. Triantos, the 56th overall player chosen, received a hefty $2.1 million bonus – nearly a million dollars more than slotted. He spent the summer with the organization’s Arizona Complex League affiliate, batting an impressive .327/.376/.594 with seven doubles, one triple, and six homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 43%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- There were 140 hitters to reach the 100-plate appearance mark in the Arizona Complex League last summer. Triantos’ 143 wRC+ is tied for the 15th best showing.
The Cubs’ front office hasn’t been shy about praising the type and quality of contact Triantos makes as a professional hitter. And it’s easy to see why, too. The swing is a beautiful mix of strength, explosiveness, and controlled chaos. He’s going to be the biggest prospect riser in the 2022 season. And he has a chance to develop into a bonafide middle-of-the-lineup thumper. In terms of big league lines, think: .280/.340/.540. He also flashed a 96-mph fastball on the mound and ran a 6.60 60-yard dash. Elite athlete.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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6. Brailyn Marquez, LHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 55 |
Background: Poised for big things in the 2021. Marquez, a big left-hander out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, was spectacular in 2019, the year before the lost COVID season. Making 22 starts between South Bend and Myrtle Beach, the then-21-year-old struck out 128 and walked 50 to go along with a 3.13 ERA in 103.2 innings of work. Chicago placed Marquez on the Taxi Squad two years ago and he eventually made his – brief – big league debut. Marquez made a late September relief appearance against the cross town rival White Sox, throwing just two-thirds of an inning while allowing five runs. Last season, with a ton of momentum moving towards a potentially large role with the big league squad, Marquez missed the entire year with a problematic shoulder. According to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, the big lefty was working through a throwing program in November.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The potential is there to be one of the game’s premier southpaws, but more work has to be done. As Major League Baseball and their organizations continue to buy into the pitch design / pitch development by Driveline Baseball and the like, the odds of Marquez taking that elite step forward increase dramatically.
Scouting Report: There’s nothing new to report on. Marquez’s arsenal was impressive during his abbreviated stint with the Cubs in 2020: his fastball averaged nearly 98 mph; his slider was in the mid 80s, and his changeup was in the 90 mph range. There’s the potential to be a mid-rotation caliber starter, perhaps even higher – though that depends on two big ifs: #1: If he’s healthy and #2: If he can throw enough strikes. If he comes back healthy, he’s an easy lock for a Top 50 prospect in the game, the risk knocks him down significantly though.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2020
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7. Reginald Preciado, 3B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45/50 | 50/45 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Almost lost in a system that’s quickly becoming one of the better ones in baseball. The Cubs acquired veteran hurler Zach Davies and a quartet of prospects from the Padres for ace righty Yu Darvish and backstop / infielder Victor Caratini in December 2020. As noted by an article on MLB.com, San Diego handed the 6-foot-4, 185-pound infielder a hefty $1.3 million bonus a couple years, a Panamanian-record. Preciado, whose father played professionally in the Yankees organization once upon a time, made his debut in 2021. Spending the entirety of the year with the club’s Arizona Complex League affiliate, the young shortstop / third baseman batted a scorching .333/.383/.511 with 10 doubles, three triples, and three homeruns. He also swiped sevens bags in eight attempts as well. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Preciado’s overall production topped the league average mark by 32%.
Scouting Report: Last season there were 53 hitters to receive at least 150 plate appearances in the Arizona Complex League. Of those 53, Preciado’s overall production, 132 wRC+, ranked as the eighth best and only three 18-year-olds (Wilfred Veras, Alexander Ramirez, and Yerlin Confidan) were better overall hitters. The young switch-hitter has a wide base at the plate with limited movement. Line drive swing that may not allow him to generate ton of homeruns, though he looks like a doubles machine. Defensively, he was incredible last season, per Clay Davenport’s metrics (he was +7 at third base and +3 at shortstop). If Preciado makes the transition into full season action without too many speed bumps he’s a contender to be a mid-season Top 100 prospect.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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8. Owen Caissie, LF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 50/60 | 35 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Prior to 2020, Notre Dame High School, located in Burlington, Ontario, has produced two MLB draft picks: Craig Hawkins, a 35th round pick by the Twins in 1997, and Jamie Lehman, a 29th round pick by the Expos in 2003. Caissie, a projectable 6-foot-4, 190-pound left fielder, crushed those previous draft status when the Padres selected him in the second round, 45th overall, two years ago. The Ontatio-native signed for a $1,200,004 bonus. Chicago acquired him in the Yu Darvish deal. Last season Caissie split time between Chicago’s Arizona Complex League and Low-A affiliates, hitting an aggregate .302/.434/.489 with 11 doubles, one triple, and seven homeruns. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a hefty 48%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Last season there 140 hitters that received at least 100 plate appearances in the Arizona Complex League. Caissie’s overall production at the level, 179 wRC+, topped them all.
Physically he reminds of a young Joey Gallo or Jason Botts. Big. Strong. Muscular. Caissie, like those counterparts, doesn’t get cheated at the plate, never taking anything less than a massive hack. There’s the potential to develop plus power, as well as turn into a Three True Outcomes-type hitter. He’s the type of left-hander hitter that may show some platoon splits and eventually push him into platoon role. He’s entering his age-19 season, with already some Low-A experience on his resume.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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9. Miguel Amaya, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40 | 50/55 | 30 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Before The Great Sell Off the Cubs’ farm system looked an awful lot like Old Mother Hubbard’s Cupboard. It was largely built around a small group of prospects: Brennen Davis, Brailyn Marquez, Ed Howard, and Miguel Amaya with little to spare. Quietly developing into one of the more saber-friendly backstops in the minor leagues, Amaya continued to sniff out first base with nearly unparalleled frequency. Through 23 games, the 6-foot-2, 230-pound catcher hit .215/.406/.304 with four doubles and a homerun before succumbing to an elbow injury that eventually forced him under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Amaya’s overall production topped the league average mark by 17%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: He may not be a star, but he has the potential to be an above-average starter.
Scouting Report: Prior to their reemergence as a perennial powerhouse in baseball, the Astros’ farm system sported a young middle infielder by the name of Nolan Fontana. Possessing one of the elite eyes at the plate, the former second round pick would routinely put together walk rates north of 15% and sometimes cresting over in the 20% territory. The problem, of course, is that he couldn’t hit all that well or for much power. While Amaya isn’t exactly the type of player Fontana was, he’s definitely cut from the same cloth. He’ll walk well above the average amount, last season he walked 19.8% of the time, and he doesn’t profile to hit for much of an average. But he’ll flash 20-homer pop, though. There’s such a dearth of catching at the big league level that Amaya should have no problem developing into a league average or better player – depending how the BABIP bounces.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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10. D.J. Herz, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 40/45 | 50 |
Background: Terry Sanford High School’s produced a total of three draft picks, all of which happened since 2018. The Orioles and Diamondbacks burned a couple late round selections on Andrew Jayne, who signed with Baltimore for $125,000, and Christian Jayne, who’s at UNC Pembroke currently. A year later Chicago unearthed their big lefty in the eighth round, signing him to a $500,000 deal. Last year, Herz made a total of 20 starts – 17 with Myrtle Beach and three with South Bend. He threw 81.2 innings, averaging a whopping 14.4 strikeouts and 4.8 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with a 3.31 ERA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only six 20-year-old hurlers posted a 33% strikeout percentage in Low-A with one organization (min. 60 IP): Matt Moore, Trevor May, Seth Corry, Max Lazar, Pedro Avila, and DJ Herz. Here’s the list of 20-year-old Low-A pitchers to post a strikeout percentage of at least 35% (min. 60 IP): DJ Herz, who posted a 40% strikeout percentage.
Mechanically speaking, he’s a hybrid between Chris Sale / MacKenzie Gore / Josh Hader. Herz owns an explosive plus fastball, a plus curveball, a solid tightly-wound slider, and a very good changeup. The young lefty trusts his change-of-pace as much as any young arm I can recall. He’s a crossfire thrower and that needs to be cleaned up. There’s some promising mid-rotation upside here.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
