Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Marcelo Mayer, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/60 | 40/50 | 60 | 55 | 50/55 | 70 |
Background: The Red Sox have had a strong run of top notch play from their shortstops over the past couple of decades. John Valentin manned the most important position on the infield from 1992-96. He then gave way to a young Nomar Garciaparra, who captured the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 1997 and carried the team’s offense for the better part of a decade. The offseason following Garciaparra’s trade to the Cubs, the franchise signed Edgar Renteria, who handled the position for a year. Then the club tried all kinds of stopgaps for the next seven years, plugging the hole with the likes of Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Marco Scutaro, and Mike Aviles. Then – finally – the farm system churned out their next franchise cornerstone at the position – four-time All-Star Xander Bogaerts. But after an incredible 10-year run that saw Bogaerts win two World Series titles and five Silver Slugger awards, the historic franchise – in a penny pinching move – failed to re-sign the still-in-his-prime infielder, who departed for San Diego. For now it looks like the team will install their big dollar expenditure, Trevor Story, back to his normal position. That is until Marcelo Mayer is ready. Armed with the second highest pick in franchise history, the Red Sox were waiting with open arms as Mayer, the top prep hitter, fell into their laps at the fourth overall pick two years. (Note: the last time the club owned the fourth overall pick they chose Ken Brett in 1966.) Mayer, a product of Eastlake High School, turned in a solid debut in the Complex League that summer, hitting .275/.377/.440 with eight extra-base knocks in 26 games. Last season the lefty-swinging infielder quickly moved through Low-A in just 66 games before settling in nicely against the significantly older competition in High-A – despite dealing with a wrist injury that knocked him out of commission for a month, as well as a midseason back issue. Overall, the 6-foot-3, 188-pound Mayer slugged an aggregate .280/.399/.489 with 30 doubles, two triples, 13 homeruns, and 17 stolen bases (without getting caught). His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a stellar 43%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hitters tallied a wRC+ of at least 145 with a 23% to 27% strikeout rate and a double-digit walk rate in any Low-A league (min. 300 PA): Miguel Sano, Orelvis Martinez, and – of course – Marcelo Mayer.
Mayer added noticeable bulk to his wiry frame over the past couple of years. Picture perfect swing with above-average bat speed. He’s just beginning to tap into his 20-homerun power potential and should be a doubles machine for years to come. Above-average speed. Good patience at the plate. There’s a little more-and-miss to his game than expected, but it shouldn’t be a problem in the long term. Defensively, he should have no problems sticking at the position and may even sneak into a couple Gold Glove conversations. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .310/.390/.450.
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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2. Ceddanne Rafaela, SS/CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 60 | 40 | 60 | 55 |
Background: Tremendous job done by the ball club’s scouting and development program. The organization unearthed the pint-sized dynamo from Willemstad, Curacao, and signed him for a paltry $10,000 as part of their 2017 international free agency class. Rafaela, who stands just 5-foot-8 and 152 pounds, made his professional debut with the club’s foreign rookie league affiliate the following summer, hitting .271/.326/.379 in 54 contests. The part-time shortstop / centerfielder moved stateside in 2019, batting .244/.319/.409 in 41 games in the Gulf Coast League and another three in the New-York Penn League. After minor league action returned from its COVID hiatus in 2021, Rafaela moved into Low-A and continued to put up good, but not great production lines, cobbling together a .251/.305/.424 slash line with 20 doubles, nine triples, 10 homeruns, and 23 stolen bases in 102 games with Salem. Last season, though, Rafaela – finally – took that big step forward as he moved into High-A. He slugged a scorching .330/.368/.594 in 45 games with Greenville. And he continued to perform as he moved in the minors’ most challenging level, Double-A, mashing .278/.324/.500. He slugged an aggregate .299/.342/.539 with career bests in doubles (32), triples (10), homeruns (21), and stolen bases (28). His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the average by 34%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Double-A league (min. 300 PA): 115 to 125 wRC+, a sub-7% walk rate, and an 18% to 22% strikeout rate. Those three hitters: Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Mountcastle, and – of course – the pint-sized dynamo Ceddanne Rafaela. Gonzalez finished his lengthy big league career with a 111 wRC+ mark. And Mountcastle owns a 112 wRC+ through his first 324 big league games.
One of the best athletes in a farm loaded with tools. Boston has been bouncing the Curacao native between centerfield and the middle infielder the past couple of seasons. But wherever he plays, Rafaela has provided above-average defensive value. At the plate, he packs a surprising punch given his small frame size. Above-average speed, 25-homer thump. The lone knock thus far has been his walk abhorrence as he’s found first base via the walk in fewer than 6% of his plate appearances since the start of 2021. Meaning: his offensive value is only going to go as far as his batting averages take him. Rafaela is projecting as a .270/.325/.450 hitter.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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3. Triston Casas, 1B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/55 | 55/60 | 45/30 | 60 | 45 | 60 |
Background: There’s an ongoing theme that seems to surround the club’s 2018 first round pick – loss of development time. Casas, the 26th overall pick that summer, appeared in just a pair of Gulf Coast League games during his debut before undergoing the knife to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb, forcing him to miss the remainder of the year. He made it back for the start of the 2019 season and showed no ill side effects from the procedure as he mashed .256/.350/.480 with 26 doubles, five triples, and 20 homeruns in 120 games. COVID pushed minor league ball to the sidelines in 2020. Casas, like every other professional ballplayer, was impacted by the lockout two years ago, limiting him to just 86 games – though he managed to slug .279/.394/.484. Last season the hulking first baseman appeared in 72 games with Worcester, batting a Casas-like .273/.382/.481 with 20 doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns. He also earned 95 plate appearances with Boston, hitting .197/.358/.408. He suffered a knee injury – of unknown severity – and was knocked out of winter ball.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, just four 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Triple-A season (min. 300 PA): 122 to 132 wRC+ total and a strikeout rate between 19% and 24%. Those four hitters: Clint Frazier, Arismendy Alcantara, Jarred Kelenic, and – of course – Triston Casas.
The lefty-swinging Casas continued the disturbing trend of struggling against fellow southpaws last season. His .216/.367/.250 slash line against them in 2022 comes on the heels of his disappointing showing in 2021 (.219/.289/.301) which – of course – followed his mediocre display in 2019 (.214/.317/.416). Oh, by the way, his MLB platoon splits – .193/.343/.474 (vs. RHP) and .211/.400/.211 (LHP) – only highlights his inability to drive the ball consistently against southpaws as well. Casas still hasn’t fully tapped into his plus power potential, but there’s 30-homer thump lurking in his bat. Elite walk rates. But his defense may ultimately relegate him to a Designated Hitter-only role, as well. Casas continues to be one of the more touted power hitters in the minors, but there are several large red flags that need to be addressed. At worst, he’s going to do a lot of damage against right-handers. But his ultimate ceiling is limited due to his defense capabilities (and LHP platoon splits).
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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4. Nick Yorke, 2B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55/65 | 50/55 | 50 | 55 | 50/55 | 60 |
Background: There werevery few, if any, hitters that were as consistently dominant – or impressive – over the course of the 2021 season than Nick Yorke. A product of Archbishop Mitty High School, Boston selected the prep-shortstop-turned-professional-second-baseman in the first round three years ago, 17th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.7 million. Pegged as a sweet-swinging middle infielder, Yorke easily surpassed all expectations during his phenomenal debut showing a year later. The 6-foot, 200-pound second baseman shredded the Low-A competition to the tune of .323/.413/.500 across 76 games and continued to mash in his 21-game cameo in High-A as well. He ultimately finished his debut campaign with a .325/.412/.516 slash line with 20 doubles, five triples, 14 homeruns, and 13 stolen bases. And, frankly, Yorke looked primed to continue his rapid ascension through the system’s minor league chain entering 2022. But a variety of injuries dampened that momentum – and his production line. Appearing in just 80 games with the Greenville Drive, Yorke hit a disappointing .232/.303/.365 with 10 doubles, one triple, 11 homeruns, and eight stolen bases. Finally healthy at the end of the year, the California native regained his stroke in the Arizona Fall League, slugging .342/.424/.526 with eight doubles and pair of homeruns in just 19 games with the Scottsdale Scorpions.
Scouting Report: Despite the significant downturn in production, Yorke seems primed for (A) significant playing time in the most challenging minor league level, Double-A, and (B) a tremendous bounce back campaign in 2023. Surprising power for a second baseman, Yorke and Marcelo Mayer could man the middle infielder for Boston for at least a decade. Plus hit tool, 20-homerun thump, a nose for first base, and positive defensive value. I’m still as high as ever on Yorke’s potential. He could be a perennial .300/.370/.475-type hitter at the big league level.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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5. Miguel Bleis, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50/60 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 |
Background: The historic franchise handed Bleis a hefty $1.5 million early in 2021. A native of San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, Bleis would debut with the club’s foreign rookie league affiliate a months later. He would bat a respectable .252/.331/.420 with six doubles, one triple, four homeruns, and seven stolen bases (in 11 attempts) in 36 games. Last season the club took the cautious approach and sent the young centerfielder stateside to the Complex Leagues. And the 6-foot-3, 170-pound teenager passed with flying colors. Bleis slugged .301/.353/.543 with 14 doubles, four triples, five homeruns, and 18 stolen bases (in 21 total attempts). His production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league mark by 41%.
Scouting Report: As quick of a bat as you’ll see on any 18-year-old in the game nowadays. The bat speed combined with the natural loft in his swing should allow Bleis to slug 30 homeruns at full maturity. Above-average speed and the glove to match in centerfield. The lone pockmark on his otherwise phenomenal showing in 2022 was the bloated strikeout rate. Bleis may be one of the bigger prospects that pop in 2023.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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6. Matthew Lugo, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 45/50 | 55 |
Background: The nephew of future Hall of Famer Carlos Beltrán, so it’s not shocking that the young shortstop graduated from his uncle’s Baseball Academy in 2019. Boston drafted Lugo in the second round, 69th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1.1 million. The young Puerto Rican turned in a solid, yet unremarkable debut in the Gulf Coast League that summer, hitting .257/.342/.331 with seven extra-base hits in 39 contests. Lugo moved into full season action with the Salem Red Sox in 2021, putting together another quietly solid campaign at the plate as he hit .270/.338/.364 with 21 doubles, three triples, four homeruns, and 15 stolen bases. Last season the young infielder continued his steady progress as he moved up the minor league ladder. Appearing in 114 games with the Greenville Drive, the former second rounder slugged .288/.344/.500 with career bests in doubles (25), triples (10), homeruns (18), and stolen bases (20). His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 26%. He earned 12 plate appearances in Double-A too.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a High-A season (min. 350 PA): 120 to 130 wRC+, 17% to 22% strikeout rate, and a 6% to 8% walk rate. Those five hitters: Dylan Cozens, Blake Rutherford, Brandon Snyder, Jose Osuna, and – of course – Matthew Lugo, who’s forever stuck in Marcelo Mayer’s looming shadow.
Lugo continues to range from underappreciated to overlooked, but it’s not difficult to do when one of the game’s top shortstop prospects is in the same system. Lugo’s hit tool has improved throughout his professional career to the point now that it projects to be an above-average skill at full maturity. The power continues to develop as well, going from below-average to average. And it should be noted that despite spending half of his time in Greenville’s homer-friendly park, Lugo actually slugged more dingers on the road (8 to 10). The problem so far has been his lack of glove-work at shortstop, which has been surprising. He was abysmal at the position in 2022. Lugo is tracking like a bat-first starting shortstop, who may have to move away from the position anyway thanks to Mayer. Lugo remains one of the most underrated prospects in the game. He’s the type that quietly carves out a very solid 10-year career. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .280/.340/.420.
Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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7. Bryan Mata, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 55 | 40/45 | 55 |
Background: It wasn’t too long ago that the young Venezuelan seemed poised to be a contributor for the Red Sox. He was 20-years-old, coming off of his finest professional season in which he dominated High-A for 10 starts and held his own for 11 more games in the minors’ toughest level – Double-A. But in the baseball world, four years might as well be an eternity – especially when it comes to Mata. The burly 6-foot-3, 238-pound right-hander jumped from the Dominican Summer League straight into the old South Atlantic League without missing a beat in 2017. Boston sent the then-19-year-old youngster up to High-A the next season. And despite losing all feel for the strike zone – he averaged more than seven walks per nine innings – Mata somehow escaped the year with a respectable 3.50 ERA. Then his big breakout came in 2019. He returned to High-A, throwing more strikes, like he had early in his career, and breezed through 10 starts with a 1.76 ERA. And he continued throwing strikes (at least enough strikes) as well as missing bats in 11 starts in Double-A as a 20-year-old. COVID knocked out the 2020 campaign and his wonky elbow forced him under the knife at the start of the 2021 season. The Venezuelan right-hander finally made it back to the bump last season as he climbed his back from Low-A then onto High-A then onto Double-A before finally settling in for five final starts with Worcester. He finished the year with a 105-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 2.49 ERA across 83.0 innings.
Scouting Report: Mata faced two big questions while he was on the comeback trail last season:
- Would the velocity / repertoire return to its pre-injury level?
- What type of command / control would he have? Would it be the 50-grade feel for the zone that he showed in 2017 and 2019? Or would it be the disastrous, can’t-hit-the-broadside-of-a-barn command that reared its ugly face in 2018?
The repertoire was spectacular – despite the long layoff in between starts. Mata’s fastball was sitting comfortably in the 94-to 96-mph range and, according to reports, touched 101 mph during an extended spring training appearance. His 88- to 89-mph slider adds a second plus, swing-and-miss offering. And his upper 80s changeup is a third viable weapon in his arsenal. The command – as with many returning hurlers from Tommy John surgery – was a bit touch-and-go last season. Mata had stretches where he sparkled and others where he struggled. There’s at least mid-rotation caliber potential, something along the lines of a #3 / #4 hurler – even if the command is a 45, which is where it’ll likely land.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2023
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8. Mikey Romero, 2B / SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 40/45 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: California-basedOrange Lutheran High School’s been home to several notable big leaguers throughout its history, including: Gerrit Cole, who was originally taken by the Yankees at the backend of the first round in 2008 but headed to UCLA after failing to come to terms; Cole Winn, the 15th overall pick in 2018; Garrett Mitchell, like Gerrit Cole was later drafted after an impressive college career; Jason Martin, and Brandon Mauerer. Hoping to add his name to the list of former Lancers to crack a big league lineup is shortstop Mikey Romero. Well known since his days on the U-12 Baseball World Cup in 2016, Romero, who would also play on the U-15 squad three years later, turned in a dominant senior showing last season. In 30 games for the prep school, the lefty-swinging middle infielder batted a scorching .372 (with a .419 OBP) while knocking in 26 and scoring 24 runs. Prior to the 2022 draft, Romero had changed his college commitment from the University of Arizona to SEC powerhouse Louisiana State University. The 6-foot-1, 175-pound shortstop made the decision when Wildcat head coach Jay Johnson left to take a job with the Tigers. Boston drafted Romero in the opening round, 24th overall, and signed a deal worth $2.3 million. He split his abbreviated debut between the Complex League and Salem, slugging an aggregate .304/.368/.506 with seven doubles, three triples, one homeruns, and a pair of stolen bases.
Scouting Report: Romero has the defensive chops to stick at shortstop, but the 6-foot-1, 175-pound infielder lacks the arm strength to make deep throws. A move to second base seems likely – and that’s before considering that the club’s top prospect – Marcelo Mayer – isn’t moving away from the infield’s most important position. Good bat but lacks current power, Romero projects to add 12- to 15 homeruns at his peak with plenty of doubles in the gaps.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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9. Blaze Jordan, 1B / 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50/60 | 35/30 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
Background: One of the most ballyhooed third round prospects in recent memory or, perhaps, in history – at least in terms of baseball card collectors. Jordan’s hype reached a fever pitch that rivaled that of Gregg Jefferies back in the 1980s. And, for the most part, he has quietly lived up to it – or at least a little bit, anyways. A product of DeSoto Central High School, Boston snagged the power-hitting corner infielder in the third round, 89th overall, and handed him a massive $1.75 million bonus. Jordan would make his debut the following season, hitting .324/.368/.591 in 28 games between the Complex League and Salem. The former Bonus Baby opened up last season back in Low-A, but after a successful 95-game stint he spent the remaining few weeks with Greenville. Jordan finished first full season in the Red Sox’s organization with a stellar .289/.363/.445 slash line with 30 doubles, three triples, 12 homeruns, and five stolen bases (in six attempts). According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league mark by 24%.
Scouting Report: Well known for his prodigious power and mammoth homeruns. Jordan’s production line last season lacked the type of homerun total that was expected. But – surprisingly – the hit tool and contact rates have been better than advertised. Average walk rates. Jordan’s offensive profile plays well at either corner infield position, though he plays defense like a designated hitter. With regard to his work in Low-A last season, consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Low-A season (min. 350 PA): 117 to 127 wRC+, a 14% to 18% strikeout rate, and a 8% to 10% walk rate. Those four hitters: Kyle Tucker, Brett Lawrie, Forrest Wall, and – of course – Blaze Jordan.
Each time he digs in at the dish he has bad intentions. He’s Bobby Dalbec with a better hit tool.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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10. Luis Perales, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 50/55 | 40/45 | 50 |
Background: Let me know if you’ve heard – or read – this before: the Red Sox quietly signed the promising youngster on a sub-$100,000 deal midsummer four years ago. A native of Guacara, Venezuela, his debut came to an abrupt end the following year as he dealt with an undisclosed injury. The official stat line: 2.0 innings pitched, one earned run, one walk, and three punch outs. So all things considered, last season proved to be the hard-throwing righty’s “official” debut. Perales made nine appearances with the club’s Complex League affiliate and another four brief outings in Low-A. He tossed a total of 35.2 innings, recording an impressive 50 punch outs against 20 free passes to go along with a sparkling 1.77 ERA and a 3.24 FIP.
Scouting Report: If it weren’t for the facial hair, you’d assume that Perales was working for your local U15 traveling team. Then you watch unfurl one of the most explosive 95-mph heaters in the minor leagues and question everything you thought about the generously listed 6-foot-1 right-hander. Perales will mix in an above-average 12-6 curveball and a better than advertised changeup with the latter showing solid velocity separation and tumble. The young hurler, who will play the 2023 season as a 20-year-old, shows more poise and pitchability than most his age. There’s some mid-rotation caliber potential. He’s definitely a name to watch in 2023.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
