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1. Adley Rutschman, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 55/60 | 30 | 60 | 65 | 70 |
Background: Fun Fact Part I: The Baltimore Orioles have owned the top pick in the amateur draft twice in team history – in 1989 when the front office selected LSU ace right-hander Ben McDonald and – of course – three years ago when they nabbed Oregon State University backstop Adley Rutschman. Fun Fact Part II: Baltimore’s selected collegiate backstops just twice in the opening round in their storied history – Matt Wieters, the #5 overall pick in 2007, and Rutschman. Fun Fact Part III: The franchise has selected two players from Oregon State University in the first round – Cadyn Grenier (2018) and Rutschman. Originally taken in the 40th round by the Seattle Mariners coming out of Sherwood High School in 2016, Rutschman – obviously – bypassed the late round opportunity and headed to Pac12 powerhouse OSU. But it wasn’t all roses for the eventual top pick. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound switch-hitter looked overwhelmed at the plate during his freshman season with the Beavers, hitting a paltry .234/.322/.306 in 61 games. And he fared even worse during his trot through the Cape Cod that summer as well: in 20 games with the Falmouth Commodores – a roster, by the way, that featured Grenier, Nick Madrigal, and Trevor Larnach – he batted .164/.282/.179. Like a radioactive spider biting Peter Parker, Rutschman morphed into a superhero by the time his sophomore season rolled around. In a career best 67 games for legendary coach Pat Casey, the young catcher slugged a Ted Williams-esque .408/.505/.628 with 22 doubles, three triples, and nine homeruns. Unbelievably so, he was actually more lethal during his final campaign against the mere mortals of college baseball: he battered the competition to the tune of .411/.575/.751 with 10 doubles, one triple, and 17 homeruns. After Baltimore selected him atop the 2019 draft, they handed him a massive $8.1 million bonus – the largest given out to a draft pick in team history. Rutschman appeared at three separate levels during his debut (Gulf Coast, New York-Penn and South Atlantic Leagues), batting an aggregate .254/.351/.423. Last season, after minor league ball returned to action after the COVID-imposed shutdown, the former Beaver was sent straight up to Double-A , the largest test for a prospect, and he passed with flying colors. He spent the last third of the year in AAA, passing that level with relative ease as well. In total, Rutschman slugged .285/.397/.502 with 25 doubles, two triples, and 23 homeruns. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by a whopping 44%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Rutschman shows a smooth, easy swing without much effort that generates above-average bat speed. There’s no such thing as a lock for superstardom when it comes to prospects, but Rutschman looks like a strong possibility to get there.
Scouting Report: If there was a perfect catching prospect, it might look like Adley Rutschman. And it doesn’t look like him, it’d be an awfully close facsimile. Switch-hitter. Plus power. Elite bat-to-ball skills. Above-average bat. Elite eye at the plate. Elite defensive ability. During his brief minor league tenure he’s basically been the offensive equivalent of Rickey Henderson without the speed. It’s all impressive, but the most impressive aspect of Rutschman’s first full season in professional baseball: he made the leapt up to the upper minors (A) with just 12 games in Low-A and (B) he finished his tenure in Double-A, the make-it-or-break-it level, with a 57-to-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .290/.370/.500. One more final thought: there’s no way Baltimore promotes him before the Super-2 deadline passes.
Ceiling: 7.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 60 | 70 | 55 | 60 | 70 |
Background: As much as some would like to dismiss it, there’s a lot of luck involved in the summer amateur draft. Not only do organizations spend countless hours and seemingly limitless amounts of money scouting players, hoping they can correctly predict human behavior, but they have to project where players will go. Will a player be available at pick 10? What about pick 50? Did an organization catch a player during a good stretch or was he mired in an unusual slump? In a lot of ways, though, it’s often better to be lucky than good – like the Los Angeles Angels selecting Mike Trout, the greatest player of his generation, who was inexplicably bypassed until the 25th pick in the 2009 draft. There may be a point in the future – perhaps as soon as 2022 or maybe even in 10 years – when we look back and question how Grayson Rodriguez wasn’t the first pitcher chosen in the 2018 draft class, let alone why he wasn’t the first player chosen overall. Standing an imposing 6-foot-5 and 220-pounds, Rodriguez was seemingly born to front the rotation of a big league club. And he made that abundantly clear as soon as he toed a professional rubber. The hard-throwing right-hander ripped through the Gulf Coast League during his debut and didn’t stop as he moved into the South Atlantic League a year later. He would make 20 starts with the Delmarva Shorebirds that season, averaging 12.4 strikeouts and only 3.4 walks per nine innings. That dominance was just a harbinger of things to come. Rodriguez opened the 2021 season up with Aberdeen, but after toasting the mere mortals of High-A, he moved onto the proving grounds of Double-A. Again, the competition proved to be no match for Rodriguez and his elite four-pitch mix. In total, Rodriguez made 23 starts between the two affiliates, throwing 103 innings with a whopping 161 starts with 27 walks. He finished the year with an aggregate 2.36 ERA and a 2.67 FIP.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s no question about it: he’s an ace-in-the-making and there are few – if any – minor league pitchers I would taken over Rodriguez.
Scouting Report: Just how good was Grayson Rodriguez, not even a top 10 pick in the 2018 draft, last season? Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 21-year-old pitchers posted a strikeout percentage of at least 36% in Double-A with one organization (min. 50 IP): Reid Detmers, the top prospect in the Angels system, former big league reliever Carter Capps, and Grayson Rodriguez – who threw at least 25 innings more than the former duo.
In the conversation for the best overall arsenal in the minor leagues – personally, I think it’s between Miami’s Edward Cabrera and Grayson Rodriguez – Baltimore’s budding ace owns four above-average or better offerings. His fastball sits in the mid- to upper-90s with as much life as a meteor screaming towards earth. His hellacious curveball, merely a plus pitch, isn’t even his best breaking ball. His plus-plus slider is, simply put, death to hitters – especially right-handed hitters. He’ll also mix in a deceptively good, plus changeup. Throw in plus command and there’s a recipe for an elite, premium ceiling. Four legitimate swing-and-miss, sit down on the bench offerings.
Ceiling: 7.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Colton Cowser, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 30/40 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Hailing from the same alma mater, Cypress Ranch High School, as Diamondbacks prospect Corbin Martin, Cowser batted .411 while driving in 38 runs and swiping 30 stolen bases en route to earning all-state honors during his senior prep campaign. A toolsy Texas-born outfielder, Cowser turned in one of the more dynamic freshman showings for Sam Houston State three years ago: appearing in 56 games for Manager Jay Sirianni, he belted out 17 doubles, seven triples, and seven homeruns while swiping nine bases to go along with a .361/.450/.602 triple-slash line. The 6-foot-3, 195-pound lefty-swinging center fielder spent the following summer playing alongside the likes of Spencer Torkelson, future Orioles prospect Heston Kjerstad, and Austin Martin for Team USA. Cowser finished his time for the national team with a .273/.390/.303 slash line. His production stumbled a bit during the COVID-shortened 2020 season: in 14 games he hit .255/.379/.364. But his numbers came roaring back in his third season for the Bearkats, slugging .374/.490/.680 with career highs in doubles (10), homeruns (16), and stolen bases (17). Baltimore snagged him fifth overall last July, signing him to a deal worth $4.9 million. After ripping through the Complex League competition, Cowser made quick work of the Low-A competition as well, slugging .347/.476/.429 with five doubles and one homeruns in 25 games.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2020, only three Southland Conference hitters have batted at least .350/.475/.650 in a season (min. 225 PA): Hunter Dozier, Jameson Fisher, and Luis Trevino.
While it’s a less than stellar collection of players – with only Dozier making an impact at the big league level – it’s important to point out that Cowser, unlike his counterparts, played against premium collegiate-aged talent (Team USA) and had some level of success. And he did it as a true freshman. Simple swing from a complete upright stance, he’s short and quick to the zone. Cowser doesn’t project to hit from more than 10 or so homeruns during a full professional season. But he owns an above-average hit tool, enough speed to swipe 15 bags, and play a passable defense. He’s low ceiling / high floor prospect and should be selected between picks 15 and 20.”
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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4. D.L. Hall, LHP
| FB | CB | SB | CH | Command | Overall |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 60 |
Background: It lasted just ten days, but it was beautiful, glorious ten days, nonetheless. For a brief fleeting moment last season the Bowie Baysox not only rostered two of the best pitching prospects in baseball, the lineup sported the best hitting prospect in the game as well. It provided the type of hope the Orioles’ fans thirsted for. Grayson Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, D.L. Hall. Just seven starts into the 2021 season, his fifth in Baltimore’s organization, D.L. Hall hit the disabled list with a wonky left elbow – essentially breaking up the perfect triumvirate. The specific cause: per The Baltimore Sun, Hall suffered a “stress reaction in the bone in his left elbow.” Those seven starts before he hit the disabled list, though, were mostly of the dominant variety: he tossed 31.2 innings, recording a staggering 56 punch outs versus 16 free passes to go along with a 3.13 ERA, a 3.33 FIP, and a 2.33 xFIP. For his brief career, the young left-hander sported a 2.99 ERA while averaging 11.8 strikeouts and 5.1 walks per nine innings. It marked the second season in a row (2019 and 2021) that Hall spent considerable time on the injured list.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: He has the potential to develop into a Blake Snell-type lefty; he just has to throw more strikes. Snell, by the way, battled severe control issues early in his career too.
Scouting Report: Prior to the injury, Hall’s arsenal was dominating and he was throwing strikes more frequently that he did in years past. During an early May outing the 6-foot-2, 195-pound left-hander’s heater was sitting 93- to 94-mph and touched 98- and 99-mph on numerous occasions. It’s explosive with riding life and a lot natural cutting action. He complemented the plus offering with a trio of above-average offspeed pitches: an upper 70s curveball, a quality slider, and a sneaky good changeup. Hall’s a lot of arms and legs, which adds some deception to his delivery. Barring any setbacks from the stress reaction in his elbow, Hall could ascend to a mid-rotation arm – maybe even higher if the command ticks up closer to average.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2023
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5. Coby Mayo, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50/60 | 40/30 | 55 | 45/50 | 60 |
Background: Parkland, Florida-based Stoneman-Douglas High School has had several notable ballplayers walked through their halls, including Anthony Rizzo and Jesus Luzardo, but neither were the highest drafted prospect, though. That distinction belongs to former White Sox shortstop Mike Caruso, the 42nd pick in the draft all the way back in 1996. The recipient of the largest bonus in the prep school’s history, though, is Coby Mayo. Taken in the fourth round, 103rd overall, two years ago, Baltimore signed the massive 6-foot-5, 215-pound teenager to an over-slot deal worth $1.75 million. Mayo made his debut last season, ripping through the Complex League competition to the tune of .329/.440/.566. And he barely slowed in a 27-game cameo in Low-A East, slugging .311/.416/.547 with eight doubles, one triple, five homeruns, and five stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his total production topped the league average mark by a whopping 62%.
Scouting Report: A University of Florida commit prior to joining Baltimore’s organization, the player development program quieted Mayo’s busy set position that he showed as a high schooler. The big third baseman would take an extreme weight transfer to his back foot as he readied himself. Mayo owns the best power potential of any minor league hitter not named Adley Rutschman in the Orioles’ farm system. Plus bat speed, short stroke. Mayo combines the plus future power with strong contact rates and above-average patience. Defensively, he’s raw, below-average. But he’s incredibly athletic and projects to be an average third baseman. He’ll be a consensus Top 100 pick by the start of 2023. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .270/.340/.500. I like him a lot. The ceiling is incredibly high. One of the most underrated prospects.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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6. Heston Kjerstad, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Background: A dominant middle-of-the-lineup thumper during his three-year tenure at the University of Arkansas. Kjerstad, a hulking 6-foot-3, 205-pound outfielder, was originally drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 36th round coming out of Canyon Randall High School in 2017. The Texas native showed no ill effects jumping from high school competition to the elite Southeastern Conference. Kjerstad put together a tremendous true freshman season for the Razorbacks in 2018, slugging .332/.419/.553 with 30 extra-bases in 69 games. He nearly matched that production the following season as well, batting .327/.400/.573 with 31 extra-base knocks in 65 contests. Kjerstad start the 2020 campaign off like a bat out of hell too, hitting .448/.513/.791 with five doubles and six homeruns in just 16 games before the COVID-imposed shutdown. Baltimore selected him in the opening round, second overall, and signed him to a below-slot deal worth $5.2 million. Unfortunately for the former Arkansas star, he hasn’t appeared in an affiliated game because of myocarditis (heart inflammation).
Scouting Report: Kjerstad remains a complete unknown at this point. During his collegiate days he owned plus power and made enough contact to alleviate any concerns about massive swing-and-miss issues as a potential professional hitter. He whiffed in 18.7% of his career plate appearances with Arkansas. Beyond baseball, here’s hoping Kjerstad makes it back to the ball field so he can start to move towards his dream of making it the big leagues. Unfortunately for all parties involved, he remains a complete unknown at this time.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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7. Gunnar Henderson, 3B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 50/55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Armed with three selections in the top two rounds of the 2019 draft, first time General Manager Mike Elias took the easy choice with the club’s first pick, nabbing generational catching prospect Adley Rutschman #1, but dipped into the prep ranks for their second selection: John T. Morgan High School product Gunnar Henderson. Signed to a hefty $2.3 million deal, the lefty-swinging infielder cobbled together a mediocre .259/.331/.370 slash line during his debut in the Gulf Coast League that summer. Last season, though, the then-20-year-old Henderson opened the year up on a tear with Delmarva: in 35 games he slugged a hearty .312/.369/.574 with 20 extra-base knocks. The front office bounced the former high school star up to High-A near the end of June. After an abysmal start with Aberdeen, Henderson got his footing under him and convinced the organization he was ready for the minors’ toughest challenge: Double-A. He spent the remaining week-and-a-half with Bowie, going 3-for-15. Overall, Henderson batted an aggregate .258/.350/.476 with 28 doubles, four triples, and 17 homeruns. He also swiped 16 bags in 18 attempts. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his aggregate production topped the league average threshold by a solid 20%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The toolsy shortstop didn’t show any meaningful red flags during his debut: he handled left- and right-handers equally well; showed a solid approach at the plate; flashed some average-ish power; and played a competent shortstop. He’s likely ticketed for a spot on the Top 100 list in 2021. One more thought: very short, quick, compact swing.
Scouting Report: With regard to his longest stint at a minor league level last season, consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 20-year-old hitters posted a 105 to 115 wRC+ with a 27% to 32% strikeout rate and a walk rate north of 12% in High-A (min. 275 PA): Samad Taylor and Gunnar Henderson.
It’s a bit interesting that the player development czars decided to shove Henderson through the low levels of the minors as quickly as they did given Henderson’s massive punch out rates. The lefty-swinging infielder whiffed 29.3% of the time in Low-A, 30.1% in High-A, and a whopping 58.8% in 17 plate appearances in Double-A. That’s red flag #1. Now here’s red flag #2: he was hapless against southpaws as well, hitting a paltry .189/.293/.349 in 123 plate appearances. Henderson showed more power than expected, belting out 49 extra-base hits, with half of his games played in pitcher-friendly environments. If he can pull in the punch outs, he’s poised to be a solid MLB contributor. If not, he’s a bench guy.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2023
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8. Drew Rom, LHP
| FB | CB | SF | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: There were a few notable prospects taken in the fourth round of the 2018 draft, including: Milwaukee’s surging left-hander Aaron Ashby, righty Kyle Bradish (who would eventually join Baltimore’s farm system), Stanford ace Tristan Beck, Cincinnati minor leaguer Michael Siani, and – of course – left-hander Drew Rom, the 115th overall pick that year. Standing a solid 6-foot-2 and 170 pounds, the Highlands High School product entered the 2021 season coming off of strong back-to-back showings in the low levels of the minors. Rom struck out 28-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30.2 innings with the Gulf Coast League during his debut. The front office pushed the teenage arm up to the South Atlantic League the following year. And he sparkled. In 21 appearances, 15 of which were starts, Rom averaged 11.5 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings. Last year, as MiLB action returned to the diamond, Rom ripped through High-A East for 67.2 innings and he continued to assert himself as one of the club’s better prospects during his nine-game cameo in Double-A. Rom would go on to throw 107.2 total innings last season, striking 120 against only 26 free passes. He finished 2021 with an aggregate 3.51 ERA and 3.76 xFIP.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Rom looks like a #3/#4-type arm if the fastball can bump a couple ticks, something in the 92- to 93-mph range.
Scouting Report: A crafty lefty, but not in the pejorative sense. It’s clear to see that the young southpaw not only has the chops to pitch at the big league level, but he possesses the guile and smarts to match. As hinted at in The 2020 Prospect Digest, Rom’s heater did see an increase in velocity over the past couple seasons, going all the way up to 94 mph during an early July start in High-A. He’ll complement the newly minted above-average offering with an above-average curveball and a high quality splitter. Rom will vary the movement on the splitter, sometimes allowing it to sweep in a slider-like break, and other times showing more natural tumble. The lefty shows a solid feel for the strike zone and often throws quality pitcher’s pitches. Rom – for whatever reason – remains under-the-radar.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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9. Jordan Westburg, 3B/SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45/50 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The AL East club opened the 2020 draft with four straight collegiate hitters, selecting Heston Kjerstad and Jordan Westburg in the opening round. A solid contributor in Mississippi State’s potent lineup, Westburg signed with the Orioles for a smidgeon over $2.3 million as the 30th overall pick. A part-time starter for the Bulldogs as true freshman, the 6-foot-3, 203-pound infielder batted a mediocre .248/.319/.388 with 11 doubles and a pair of dingers in 139 plate appearances. After ripping through the Perfect Game Collegiate Baseball League that summer, Westburg’s offensive production improved noticeably during his sophomore campaign: he batted .294/.402/.457 with 21 doubles, two triples, and six long balls. The Texas-born prospect continued to hit as he squared off against the Cape Cod League that year as well, slugging .326/.385/.516 in 25 games with the Hyannis Harbor Hawks. Westburg got off to another strong start as the 2020 season opened, batting .317/.432/.517 before the year was prematurely closed due to COVID. Baltimore put their former first round pick on the Gunnar Henderson development path last season as he made his debut, going from Low-A to High-A and finally settling in for 30 games at Double-A. Westburg slugged an aggregate .285/.389/.479 with 27 doubles, five triples, and 15 homeruns.
Scouting Report: With regard to his longest stint at a minor league level last season, High-A, consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in High-A with one organization (min. 275 PA): 128 to 138 wRC+ total, a walk rate north rate of 12%, and a strikeout rate between 24% and 26%. Those four hitters: Eric Jagielo, Kyle Kubitza, Tyler Ramirez, and Jordan Westburg.
Unlike Gunnar Henderson, Westburg’s strikeout rate slowly declined along each stop last season, going from 26.4% down to 24.6% in his final stop in Double-A. There’s not enough thump in the bat to profile as an everyday third baseman. The glove is certainly good enough to stay at shortstop – or even second base – but the club was experimenting with him at the hot corner. Average hit tool, below-average power that projects to 50-grade at maturity, a little bit of speed. He looks like the prototypical low ceiling / high floor collegiate bat.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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10. Kyle Stowers, LF/RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 35 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: The franchise has had quite a bit of luck taking prospects out of Stanford, including Hall of Famer Mike Mussina and veteran outfielder Jeffrey Hammonds. In fact, the last time the club took a Stanford Cardinal as early as Kyle Stowers in the amateur draft was Hammonds, who was the fourth overall pick in 1992. Stowers didn’t go nearly that high, though he earned a bonus just shy of $900,000. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound corner outfielder, who was taken in the third round three years ago, saw spare playing time as a true freshman for the Pac12 conference school. He earned a starting gig the following year, 2018, and batted .286/.383/.510 with 23 homeruns. And he followed that up with an even better showing during his junior campaign, slugging .303/.369/.523with 19 doubles, one triple, and nine homeruns. After an absolutely abysmal showing in the New York-Penn League after joining the organization, Stowers rocketed through the final three stops in the minor leagues during his first full season of action. In 124 games he batted .278/.383/.514 with 23 doubles, one triple, and 27 homeruns.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: He looked completely helpless against fellow left-handers (.143/.231/.200).
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, three 23-year-old hitters posted a 147 to 157 wRC+ with a walk rate between 11% and 13% in Double-A (min. 275 PA): J.D. Martinez, Jordan Brown, and – of course – Kyle Stowers. The differentiating factor between Stowers and the former pair is quite apparent: he whiffed twice frequently as Martinez and Brown.
Stowers hardly resembled the same hitter he appeared to be during his disastrous debut in 2019, showing more power and handling southpaws with aplomb last season. The problem, like a lot of the club’s other top minor league bats not named Adley Rutschman, is Stowers’ punch out rate. He whiffed 171 times in only 530 plate appearances – or 32.3% of the time. One interesting note: his K-rate against southpaws was 26.1% and posted a K-rate of 34.4% against right-handers. Above-average power. 45-grade bat. Average glove. Future fourth outfielder.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
