School: Louisiana State University; Class: Junior
Position: RHP; B/T: R/R
Height: 6-6; Weight: 235
Previously Drafted: N/A
High School: El Toro High School
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 80 | 70 | 60 | 60 | 70 |
Background: Who’s the best college pitching prospect in history? Certainly Stephen Strasburg belongs on the list, as does Mark Prior, Ben McDonald, David Price, Gerrit Cole, Kris Benson, Andy Benes, and Tim Belcher too. When Strasburg mania hit it was unlike anything seen before. His college games became an attraction. University of South California ace Mark Prior was deemed the greatest pitching prospect in history with nearly perfect mechanics during his time. McDonald, Price, Cole, Benson, Benes, and Belcher were all going to lead an MLB franchise to the promise land.
Louisiana State University ace Paul Skenes – thanks in large part to social media – has likely surpassed everyone on his way to the best pitching prospect. Or at least an argument could be made he’s the best collegiate pitching prospect in history.
A product of El Toro High School, home to Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman, and Austin Romine, Skenes began his began his collegiate career for the Air Force Falcons. Used as the club’s closer, the burly, broad-shouldered right-hander saved 11 games with a 30-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26.2 innings of work.
Skenes split the ensuing summer with the Wareham Gatemen in the vaunted Cape Cod League (8.0 IP, 11 strikeouts, 5 BB) and with Team USA (5IP, 4K, 4BB).
The 6-foot-6, 235-pound righty moved into the Falcons’ rotation in 2022. And he blossomed.
Making 15 starts, Skenes tossed 85.2 innings with 96 punch outs and 30 free passes to go along with a 10-3 win-loss record and a 2.73 ERA. And, once again, he appeared in a handful of games for Team USA, recording a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in four innings of work.
Oh, yeah, he batted .410/.486/.697 with 21 doubles and 11 homeruns as a freshman and followed that up with a .314/.412/.634 showing during his final season at Air Force.
Midsummer two years ago he announced that he would be transferring to LSU. The rest, as they say, is history.
Skenes owns a 1.77 ERA while averaging an impossible 15.8 strikeouts to just 1.5 walks per nine innings across 17 starts and 107.0 innings of work.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2011, there have been 165 instances in which a SEC pitcher eclipsed the 90-inning threshold. Only three hurlers averaged 14 or more strikeouts per nine innings: Jack Leiter, Ethan Small, and – of course – Paul Skenes. Only one of those pitchers posted a sub-2.0 BB/9 rate: Paul Skenes.
- Skenes, the former Air Force transfer, owns the highest strikeout total in the SEC in 2023.
Even in a high octane, jet fuel throwing era where fastball velocity is exploding, Skenes’ heater is a grade above, both in terms of velocity and spin rate. His fastball will sit in the mid- to upper-90s and reach well above 100 mph on occasion – including touching 101 on the 124th pitch of the game in early June. But that’s only a part of story. The big righty features – arguably – the best slider in the draft class and a plus, power changeup. The genuine ace material brewing here. Skenes possesses the size, repertoire, and command to front a big league rotation. He’s far superior to recent top college pitching prospects like Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, Max Meyer, and Nick Lodolo. He’s going to be star – as long as he can stay healthy.
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
Grade: First Round
