School: University of Florida; Class: Redshirt Junior
Position: CF; B/T: R/L
Height: 6-1; Weight: 195
Previously Drafted: Boston Red Sox, 2nd round, 2021
High School: Trinity Catholic High School
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The book on Jud Fabian is a well-known tome at this point: He starred at Trinity Catholic High School and enrolled early at the University of Florida to begin – what many thought – would be a dominant collegiate career. Fabian started the entire year as a true freshman with the Gators, despite: being just 18-years-old, playing for one of the top programs in the country, and cobbling together a mediocre .232/.353/.411. But things began to click for the budding teenage phenom during his summer in the Cape Cod League with the Bourne Braves: he hit a rock solid – borderline impressive – .290/.350/.500 with eight doubles and six homeruns in 35 games.
The best part? He was able to carry that momentum into breakout – albeit COVID-shortened – 2020 campaign in which he hit .294/.407/.603. And that’s where the story turns for the worse.
Beginning in 2021, Fabian began to sell out for more thump at the price of consistent contact. He would hit a lowly .249/.364/.560 with a punch out rate of nearly 30%. Still, though, the Red Sox took a second round gamble on the enigmatic, toolsy outfielder, but the sides failed to come to an agreement, so Fabian headed back to the land of the Gators for his redshirt junior campaign.
And the results were mostly unchanged.
Fabian batted .239/.414/.598 with 10 doubles, one triple, 24 homeruns, and nine stolen bases in a career best 66 games.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2011, only 17 SEC hitters posted an OPS north of 1.000 in a season (min. 300 PA).
- Of those 17, two walked at least 20% of the time: Jonathan India and, of course, Jud Fabian.
- Looking at the same set of 17 hitters, only to struck out at least 20% of the time: Stephen Scott and, of course, Jud Fabian.
Arguably the most polarizing hitter in this year’s draft class. Depending upon the day Fabian looks like a surefire lock as a potential early first round pick. Other days he looks like an undrafted free agent. And batting average is certainly far from a reliable indicator, but a collegiate prospect that hits an aggregate .244 in his last 459 at bats has to mean something.
The good news is that Fabian chewed down his bloated strikeout rate, going from 30% to 20%. He also maintained his phenomenal walk rates. The question is always going to come down to the hit tool. And I just don’t see him making enough strides at this junction in his career to have a viable shot at the big leagues. Gambling on potential, though, is something some organization will do – just like when the Dodgers selected former Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall in the opening round in 2017.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: High
Grade: Third Round
