Washington Nationals Top 10 Prospects for 2022

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Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!

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1. Keibert Ruiz, C

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Background: It was – quite simply – the biggest trade in Washington Nationals history: the club agreed to send future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer and his expiring contract, as well as infielder Trea Turner, perhaps a long shot future HoF’er – all the way across the country to the Dodgers for a quartet of prospects: Josiah Gray, Gerardo Carrillo, Donovan Casey, and – of course – Keibert Ruiz. A long time member of the Top 100 Club, Ruiz first began opening eyes as a baby-faced 16-year-old dominating the Dominican Summer League when he batted .300/.340/.387. After reaching – and succeeding in – Double-A just three seasons later, the stocky backstop’s status dulled a bit as he struggled in a return to the Texas League in 2019. Last season, his seventh in professional baseball, Ruiz rediscovered his sweet-swinging stroke, hitting a combined .310/.377/.616 between both organizations’ Triple-A squads. He also batted a collective .273/.333/.409 in 29 games in the big leagues.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s an artificially concerning trend in Ruiz’s production line: his production line has declined in each of the past of three seasons.

Scouting Report: The good news:

  • Since 2006, only three 22-year-old hitters have posted at least a 140 wRC+ with a sub-15% strikeout rate in Triple-A in a season (min. 250 PA): Elijah Dukes, the troubled former Top 100 prospect, and silky smooth first baseman James Loney. Dukes and Loney, by the way, finished their respective big league careers with wRC+ totals of 103 and 105.
  • Taking this one step further, here’s the list of big league catchers to post a wRC+ between 100 and 109 during the 2020 season (min. 300 PA): Willson Contreras, J.T. Realmuto, Max Stassi, Carson Kelly, Luis Torrens, and Eric Haase.

Catchers with average or better offensive prowess are worth their weight in gold – especially one that consistently makes contact. Ruiz’s long projected power finally took a step forward last season. Perhaps what’s even more encouraging: it actually looks like a sustainable, repeatable skill as he’s now elevating the ball at the highest clip in his career. Now the bad news: Ruiz has gained some noticeable girth over the past couple of seasons. In The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook Ruiz’s weight was listed as 200 pounds. This year he’s tipping the scales at 225. Just something to keep an eye in the coming years. 

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019

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2. Cade Cavalli, RHP

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Background: A talented, albeit enigmatic, hurler during his first two seasons at the University of Oklahoma, Cavalli, who saw some serious time as a two-way player, put it all together during his COVID-shortened 2020 season: in just four starts, the big bodied right-hander ripped off 37 punch outs against just five free passes in only 23.2 innings of work. Washington snagged the hard-throwing Sooner with the 22nd pick and set him loose on the minor leagues a year later. Cavalli donned the Wilmington Blue Rocks’ jersey for his first seven starts of the season, seemingly twirling gem after gem while averaging nearly 16 strikeouts and barely over 2.5 free passes per nine innings. The front office bumped up the 6-foot-4, 230-pound right-hander up to Double-A. And while he continued to miss a ton of bats at the game’s biggest minor league challenge – he averaged 12.4 K/9 – his control/command faltered to the tune of 5.4 BB/9. Cavalli capped off his mercurial top prospect with a six-game cap in Triple-A with the Rochester Red Wings. He finished the year with 123.1 innings, a minor league leading 175 strikeouts, 60 walks, and a 3.36 ERA.   

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only four 22-year-old pitchers have struck out at least 32% and walked more than 12% of the hitters they faced in Double-A (min. 50 IP): Cristian Javier, Josh Staumont, Dan Smith, and – of course – Cade Cavalli.

A projectable right-hander without a ton of wear-and-tear on his right wing – he was limited to just over 100 innings during his collegiate career – Cavalli’s command is likely to improve as he matures. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound former Big12 star will uncork an effortless mid- to upper-90s heater that’s tough to get around on, a pair of plus breaking balls, and a quietly solid changeup that hovers in the 90 mph range. His curveball, the preferred offspeed weapon of choice, is a big 12-6 hammer with tight downward tilt. And he’ll mix in a tightly-spun, firm cutter-like slider. Loose arm. Fluid mechanics. If the command upticks to average Cavalli has a chance to reach a Dylan Cease-type level. One final note: It’s likely not a coincidence that Cavalli, who battled health issues in high school and in college, remained healthy as he moved away from a two-way gig.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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3. Brady House, SS

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Background: Lumped into the quartet of premium prep shortstops, House, along with Marcel Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, and Kahlil Watson, were all drafted within the top 16 picks of the 2021 draft. It’s something that’s been projected for the House for more than half-of-a-decade. The youngster cracked the U-12 National Team after batting .536 and starring on the mound for his middle school team. Four years later the University of Tennessee got a verbal commitment from House, who was recognized as the country’s #1 recruit from the 2021 class. The 6-foot-3, 210-pound prospect slugged .445 with five homeruns and 21 RBIs as a sophomore for Winder-Barrow High School; he followed that up with a scorching .653 batting average through 15 games before the COVID-19 shutdown. Last season House dropped eight dingers, tied for seventh in the state of Georgia to go along with a state-leading 50 runs scored, and his .571 batting average is tied for fifth. Washington snagged House in the first round, 11th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $5,000,000 – nearly $500,000 above the recommender slot bonus.

Scouting Report: Pre-draft analysis:  

“Bigger than his notable prep counterparts, House looks larger than his listed 6-foot-3 and 210-pounds and should continue to fill out as he matures – which, unfortunately, likely means a move away from shortstop. Big time bat speed, perhaps tops in the draft class, with plenty of natural loft that could result in 25 or so homeruns down the line. House has enough forearm and wrist strength to shoot bad balls to the gaps. There are some concerns about his inability to lay off of and/or fight off offspeed pitches low in the zone – though he’s shown a propensity to fight them off in high school. There’s some Carlos Correa-type potential. On the mound, his fastball routinely reaches the mid-90s.”

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2025

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4. Cole Henry, RHP

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Background: The lanky right-hander sparkled during his abbreviated tenure at Louisiana State University: he tallied a 3.03 ERA while averaging 11.1 strikeouts and just 2.8 walks per nine innings – though his career with the Tigers was limited to just 77.1 innings of work. Washington snapped up the then-20-year-old youngster in the second round two years ago, signing him to a deal worth $2 million. Henry, like his fellow high round 2020 draft counterpart, Cade Cavalli, made his professional debut in 2021. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound hurler started the campaign off on a bit of a disappointing note: he was coughed up a quartet of runs in a five-inning appearance against the Aberdeen IronBirds. But the former Tiger looked brilliant over his next four starts before hitting the DL for an extended stint with a wonky elbow. After a couple tune-up games in the rookie league, Henry made another quartet of dominant starts in High-A. He finished the year with a dazzling 1.88 ERA across 43.0 innings of action in Advanced A, averaging 13.2 punch outs and just 2.3 walks per nine innings.

Scouting Report: Like Cavalli, Henry’s battled some health issues throughout his career: a wonky elbow forced him out of action for a couple months in 2021; he also battled COVID and then dealt with a stress reaction in his upper arm, as well as another elbow issue as a freshman with LSU. But when he’s healthy he’s…damn near brilliant. The big righty attacks hitters with a mid-90s fastball that sits comfortably in the 94- to 95-mph range and touched as high as 98 mph in a start late in the season. He complements the plus pitch with an equally devastating 12-6 hammer-of-a-curveball. He’ll also mix in a surprisingly solid changeup, which shows nice arm side run and promising arm speed. Henry has some #3/#4-type potential, though he needs to stay healthy.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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5. Jackson Rutledge, RHP

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Background: It’s been a wild couple of years for the former first round selection. Rutledge, the 17th overall pick in 2019, began his collegiate career donning an Arkansas Razorbacks uniform, but after riding the pine for the entire month of May that season the 6-foot-8, 245-pound behemoth announced his transfer to JuCo school San Jacinto. And, of course, he was absurdly dominant: he whiffed a whopping 134 in only 82.2 innings of action. Rutledge’s pro debut was limited to just over 37 innings of work across the three lowest stateside levels. And – unfortunately – the big righty failed to surpass that meager total after not playing during the COVID season. Once again splitting time in three levels, Rutledge fanned 41 and walked 20 to go along with a car crash-esque 7.68 ERA. The Rockwood Summit High School alumni dealt with a cranky shoulder for several months and hit the disabled list briefly later in the season as well.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: If the command ticks up toward a 50-grade he becomes a potential #2-type arm. If not, he has the floor as a hard-throwing, sometimes erratic #4.

Scouting Report: If you catch him on a good game you’d swear he’d be nearly as unhittable as Bob Gibson; the gigantic Nationals prospect pumps seeds consistently in the upper 90s and snaps off wickedly evil sliders in the mid- to upper-80s. But those good days didn’t come nearly as frequently as the club – or Rutledge, for that matter – would’ve liked in 2021. The former Razorback-turned-JuCo-star rounds out his arsenal with an average curveball and blasé changeup. He commanded the zone well during the latter part of his campaign. But he, like Cole Henry, needs to prove he can take the ball every fifth day. It goes without saying that there’s some reliever, two-pitch wipe out risk in play.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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6. Armando Cruz, SS

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Background: Never shyaboutspending big money on the international market, the club inked the talented teenage shortstop to a franchise-tying $3.9 million deal. The pact ties equals amount the club handed to Yasel Antuna.

Scouting Report: Like a peacock sporting its feathers during mating season; Cruz is a flashy, silky smooth defender with the potential to earn a couple Gold Gloves in his career. Fluid movements with a strong arm and soft hands, there’s no concern about his ability to handle the position as his 5-foot-10, 160-pound frame fills out. He has that certain pizzazz on the defensive side of the ball that can’t be taught. It borderlines on cockiness – which I like. The swing, as expected, needs some work. He shows average bat speed and willingness to shoot the ball the other way, but he’s robotic and stiff.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2026

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7. Daylen Lile, OF

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Background: A product of Trinity High School in Louisville, Kentucky, Lile was one of the most prolific prep bats during the 2021 season. According to reports, the 6-foot, 195-pound outfielder batted .550 with 12 doubles, 12 triples, 18 homeruns, and 11 stolen bases. He scored a whopping 70 runs and knocked in another 61. The University of Louisville commit was taken by Washington in the second round, 47th overall, and signed him to an above-slot bonus worth $1.75 million. Lile turned in a disappointing, albeit brief, debut in the Florida Complex League, batting .219/.363/.250 with a pair of doubles and stolen bases.  

Scouting Report: Short, quick stroke and a natural loft that allows him to shoot balls to the gap and – perhaps – will develop into average power as his wiry frame fills out. He has trouble getting on top of pitches at the top of the zone. Very compact at the plate. And he’s likely going to be slapped with the “professional hitter” label at some point in his career. There’s a chance he develops into a corner outfielder with a 55- grade hit tool, solid walk rates, and slightly below average power. Average arm, nothing to write home about. Poor man’s Carl Crawford.  

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2026

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8. Mitchell Parker, LHP

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Background: Washingtonwent fishing into the pitching pond frequently during the COVID-shortened, five-round 2020 draft: the organization snagged arms with their first, second, fourth, and sixth picks. Parker, the last of the club’s picks that season, was originally taken by the Cubs in the 28th round coming out of Manzano High School in 2018. After a year at JuCo San Jacinto, the Rays selected the big lefty one round sooner. And, of course, Parker headed back to the Houston area school for another crack at improving his command, as well as his draft stock. In six starts, the 6-foot-4, 225-pound southpaw struck out 64 and walked 18 in only 30.1 innings of work. Parker made his professional debut last season, splitting time between Fredericksburg and Wilmington. He tossed a combined 101.2 innings of work, averaging 12.7 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings to go along with a 4.87 ERA. 

Scouting Report: Typical lefty with a little bit of funk or twang in his delivery and some long arm action. Parker doesn’t overpower hitters, nor is he up there chucking meatballs. He features a better than average fastball with a bit of life on the offering when he humps up at times. His curveball’s a nice lil’ yacker with some late movement. And the changeup is workable. The command isn’t overly sharp, but it’s steadily improved over the past couple of seasons. He’s a backend rotation filler unless the fastball ticks up or he continues to sharpen the command.  

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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9. Andy Lara, RHP

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Background: Considered by some to be one the top pitching prospects on the international scene during the 2019 signing period. Washington, never shy about doling out big money, handed the man-child a hefty $1.25 million bonus. And like a lot of the club’s more recognizable pitching prospects, Lara didn’t make his professional debut until last season. Beginning the year by squaring off against the Florida Complex League competition, the then-18-year-old hurler tallied an impressive 47-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39.2 innings of work. The Venezuelan-born hurler capped off his debut with a two-game stint in A-ball. Lara finished the year with 52 strikeouts and 21 walks per nine innings to go along with a 4.66 ERA.  

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: It’s not difficult to imagine that if Lara was entering the 2021 draft that he wouldn’t be an early- to mid-first round selection. 

Scouting Report: Unimpressive. At least during the A-Ball game I watched at the end of the year. Lara’s fastball was sitting 90-91 but he could ramp it up to 94 mph when he felt like it. His above-average curveball would sit in the low 80s with promising shape and depth. And his changeup – at least the few that I saw – was, well, disappointing. It was straight, showed enough velo separation, but generally underwhelming. Lara likely wouldn’t have cracked the first round had he been in the 2021 draft, probably settling a round or three later.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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10. Gerardo Carrillo, RHP

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Background: Hidden behind a couple of more well-known prospects, Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray, Carrillo was the third of four prospects the organization received in the Max Scherzer-Trea Turner mega-swap with the Dodgers near the trade deadline. A wiry right-hander built in the Pedro Martinez-mold: Carrillo stands a less than imposing 5-foot-10 and 170-pounds. The Mexican-born hurler split time between both organizations’ Double-A affiliates, throwing a career high 96.1 innings, recording 108 punch outs and 50 free passes. He also plunked a Rick Vaughn-esque 23 hitters – or roughly an average of one HBP every four innings. He tallied a 4.76 ERA and a 3-7 win-loss record.

Scouting Report: Carrillo features a heavy, riding plus fastball that shows some cut or sink at times. The slinging right-hander will mix in a interesting slider. At first glance it doesn’t look overly dominant but it generates a ton of awkward swings and/or some knee-buckling takes. Carrillo will also show a decent little changeup that may eventual spill over into above-average territory. The five-year minor league vet shows a lot of confidence in his secondary weapons. With regard to his work last season, consider the following:

Carrillo’s not long for the rotation, but he has the makings – potentially – of a very useful, sometimes high leverage setup arm.

Ceiling: 1.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com

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