Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Shane Baz, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 65 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 60 |
Background: How does that old saying go? The only certainties in life are death, taxes, and the Rays fleecing the rest of Major League Baseball in trades. It was a deal that was destined to fall into one of two categories: #1 Tampa Bay winning or #2 Pittsburgh losing. Instead, though, it somehow hit both checkboxes – the Rays won in astounding fashion and it forced the Pirates back into their rebuild several seasons prematurely. At the trade deadline four seasons ago the two clubs got together for a mega-swap as Tampa Bay agreed to send Chris Archer and his team-friendly deal to the Buccos for a trio of prospects: Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and former first rounder Shane Baz. All three of those aforementioned minor leaguers the Rays would receive would eventually become consensus Top 10 prospects in baseball. Only adding insult to injury, Tampa Bay signed their former ace to a deal just 2.5 years later. As for Baz, Pittsburgh selected the hard-throwing prep right-hander in the opening round, 12th overall, in 2017. The Concordia Lutheran High School product was mostly underwhelming during his abbreviated debut as he posted a 19-to-14 strikeouts-to-walk ratio in 23.2 innings in the Gulf Coast League. The following season Baz spent time with both organizations’ Appalachian League affiliates, averaging 10.1 strikeouts and 5.0 walks per nine innings. Things continued to trend in the right direction in 2019 as he showed improved control (4.1 BB/9) and missed plenty of bats (9.6 K/9) as he posted a 2.99 ERA as a 20-year-old in the Midwest League. Last season, though, Baz transformed from promising arm to bonafide burgeoning ace. In 17 starts between the top two levels of the minors’, the Texas-born hurler posted an absurd 113-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 78.2 innings of work. He finished the MiLB season with a 2.06 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. Baz also won a Silver Medal during the middle of the summer with Team USA. And he continued to dominate big league hitters during his three-start cameo with the Rays as well, fanning 18 and walking just three to go along with a 2.03 ERA.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Unharnessed lightning. Or straight filth. Whichever you prefer, though both perfectly describe Baz’s high octane repertoire. There’s some Mike Clevenger-type potential here, but the control/command may force him towards the #3/#4-type potential. He’s not far from being – widely – regarded as a Top 100 prospect. He’s poised to spend half of 2020 in Class AA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage north of 35% in Triple-A with one organization (min. 45 IP): Craig Kimbrel, Matt Moore, Tommy Hanson, and Shane Baz.
Upper-90s heat. Plus slider that he throws with complete confidence and trust, at any point in a plate appearance. Average low-80s curveball. And a rare, upper-80s average change-of-pace. Baz always had the potential to become an elite pitching prospect. Last season, though, his control improved by leaps and bounds, allowing him to become one of the best in the game. The fastball / slider combo ranks as one of the best in the minor leagues. His curveball or changeup will need further development as Major League hitters will come accustomed to the two-pitch repertoire. There’s legitimate #1 potential, but he needs a more reliable third weapon.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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2. Cole Wilcox, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 60 | 55/60 | 55/60 | 60 |
Background: The big righty took an atypical path from the SEC to Tampa Bay. Or, maybe, it’s a typical move by the Rays. Either way, though, he’s one of the better arms in the minor leagues. Drafted by the Padres in the third round two years ago, the Friars signed Wilcox to a massive $3.3 million deal – a record for a third round selection, by the way. Roughly six months later San Diego shipped the former Georgia ace to Tampa Bay, along with former top prospect Francisco Mejia, consensus top prospect Luis Patino, and Blake Hunt, in exchange for 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Wilcox, a former swing-man for the Bulldogs during his first season, looked otherworldly during his 2020 campaign as he posted a 32-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 23.0 innings of work. Last season, he got off to similar start with the Charleston RiverDogs in Low-A East, averaging 10.6 strikeouts and just 1.0 walk per nine innings through 10 starts. Then he hit the disabled list and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-September.
Scouting Report: incredibly talented and the potential to have three plus pitches and plus command. After watching Wilcox shred through the Low-A competition, it’s abundantly clear why the Padres handed out the massive bonus two years ago, as well as why the Rays went after the burgeoning ace in the trade. Mid-90s fastball with fantastic, heavy natural arm-side run. Plus slider. And a disappearing, heavy sinking changeup. Assuming there isn’t any ill effects from the TJ surgery, Wilcox could be a legitimate, genuine, bonafide ace. LOVE him.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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3. Josh Lowe, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 55 | 65 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
Background: Part one of the more disappointing first rounds in recent draft years. Tampa Bay selected the prep outfielder with the 13th overall pick, sandwiched between Jay Groome and Will Benson, in 2016. Lowe split time between Tampa Bay’s Gulf Coast and Appalachian League affiliates during his debut, batting a saber-friendly .249/.374/.405 in 54 games. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound prospect struggled through the next two seasons as he moved through the Midwest and Florida State Leagues. But the front office continued to challenge their former first rounder and sent him to the minors’ toughest level, Double-A, in 2019. And he more than held his own. In 121 games with the Montgomery Biscuits, Lowe slugged .252/.341/.442 with 23 doubles, four triples, 18 homeruns, and 30 stolen bases. Last season, as minor league ball returned to action, the Pope High School product put together their finest showing to date: in 111 games with the Durham Bulls, he hit .291/.381/.535 with career highs in doubles (28) and homeruns (22). He also went a perfect 26-for-26 in the stolen base department. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 42%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Lowe helped alleviate my biggest concern: his strikeout rate held firm, despite moving up into the make-it-or-break-it level. There’s plenty of more power in the bat as he’s just scratching the surface, something along the lines of 25- to 30-homer thump. Solid patience. Above-average glove work. Plus-speed that he utilizes efficiently on the base paths.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria in Triple-A with one organization (min. 350 PA): 137 to 147 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and a strikeout rate north of 23%. Those three hitters: Brett Phillips, Brandon Wood, and Josh Lowe.
Lowe always showed the potential of a saber-tilted hitter with a below-average hit tool. And despite the .291 average last season, the former first rounder isn’t expected to reach that level in the big leagues. 45-grade bat. 50-power that may eventually creep into above-average territory. Plus speed that he continues to employ on the base paths with impressive efficiency. Above-average glove, but it’s better in a corner outfield spot. Steven Souza offensive potential with a better glove.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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4. Curtis Mead, 1B/3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 50 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: In a very Rays-like move, the ultra savvy front office sent erratic southpaw Cristopher Sanchez to the Phillies for Australian infielder Curtis Mead in mid-November two years ago. A member of Philadelphia’s organization after signing in 2018, Mead first popped up on teams’ radars as a spry, smooth swinging 16-year-old torching the Australian Baseball League to the tune of .373/.411/.471. Prior to joining Tampa Bay’s organization Mead batted a rock solid .285/.351/.462 in 44 games in the Gulf Coast League. Last season, the 6-foot-2, 171-pound infielder slugged .321/.378/.533 with 38 doubles, two triple, 15 homeruns, and 11 stolen bases (in 15 total attempts) across stops in Low-A, High-A, and Triple-A. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by a whopping 41%. He continued to perform during his extended look in the Arizona Fall League as well, slugging .313/.360/.530 in 20 games.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in High-A with one organization (min. 225 PA): 112 to 122 wRC+, a 7% to 10% walk rate, and a strikeout rate between 15.5% and 17.5%. Those four hitters: Blake DeWitt, Tyler Wade, Alen Hanson, and Curtis Mead.
Despite spending half of his time in two pitcher-friendly ballparks, Mead put together his finest season to date. There’s a chance for a plus-hit tool, 20-homerun power, and phenomenal contact rates. Throw in an overall solid approach at the plate and a good glove at the hot corner, and Mead has the makings of a quality, sometimes borderline All-Star big leaguer. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .300/.360/.470.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022/2023
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5. Taj Bradley, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Stone Mountain, Georgia, based Redan High School has produced several notable players throughout its history, including: Brandon Phillips, a second round pick by the Expos in 1999; Chris Nelson, the ninth overall pick by the Rockies in 2004; former consensus Top 10 prospect Dominic Brown, a 20th round pick by the Phillies in 2006; and, of course, Taj Bradley, a fifth round pick by the Rays in 2018. Handed a hefty $747,500 over-slot bonus as the 150th overall player chosen that year, Bradley showed some promise during his abbreviated debut in the Gulf Coast League as he averaged 9.4 strikeouts and 4.7 walks per nine innings as a 17-year-old. The front office took the cautious approach and bumped the hard-throwing teenager up to the rookie advanced league the following season. And it proved to be the correct approach. He posted a 57-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 51.0 innings with the Princeton Rays. Last season, though, the organization began to place their foot on the gas pedal as Bradley split time between Charleston and Bowling Green – both stops being equally dominant. He made a total of 23 appearances, only one of which came in relief, between the Low-A and High-A affiliates, striking out 123 and walking just 31 in 103.1 innings of work. He finished the year with a sparkling 1.83 ERA and a 3.57 FIP.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Unharnessed lightning. Or straight filth. Whichever you prefer, though both perfectly describe Baz’s high octane repertoire. There’s some Mike Clevenger-type potential here, but the control/command may force him towards the #3/#4-type potential. He’s not far from being – widely – regarded as a Top 100 prospect. He’s poised to spend half of 2020 in Class AA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following comparison between two 20-year-old hurlers in Low-A:
| Season | Name | Team | Level | Age | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | K% | BB% |
| 2008 | Neftali Feliz | TEX | A | 20 | 82.0 | 11.63 | 3.07 | 32.72% | 8.64% |
| 2021 | Taj Bradley | TBR | A | 20 | 66.2 | 10.94 | 2.70 | 32.53% | 8.03% |
Bradley attacks hitters with a lively, plus mid-90s fastball, a biting low- to mid-80s slider, and a solid changeup that shows some arm side sink/fade. The former University of South Carolina commit showed significant progress in his ability to command the strike zone in 2021. Solid mid-rotation caliber arm with the floor of a high leverage, fastball / slider combo reliever.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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6. Vidal Brujan, IF/OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 40 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: I’ve been touting the Rays’ farm system since I’ve been writing about prospects – which, believe it or not, has been nearly a decade at this point. It’s (A) the best run organization, (B) evaluates talent better than any organization, and (C) their player development program is among the best as well. Case in point: Vidal Brujan. A light-hitting middle infielder out of San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, Tampa Bay deftly signed Brujan to a paltry – even by their standards – $15,000 deal in 2014. After two solid showings in the foreign and domestic rookie leagues, Brujan exploded as he moved into full season action in 2018 as he slugged .320/.403/.459 with 41 extra-base hits in 122 games with Bowling Green and Charlotte. Brujan’s production took a step back the following season as he returned to High-A and eventually moved up to Double-A. Last season the 5-foot-10, 180-pound switch-hitter appeared in 103 games with the Durham Bulls of Triple-A, batting .262/.346/.440 with career highs in doubles (31) and homeruns (12) to go along with 44 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 11%. He also appeared in 10 big leagues games as well.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: One the big “helium” guys in the minor leagues this offseason, Brujan’s shooting up a ton of prospect lists – which is surprising because (A) his production line regressed noticeably from his breakout campaign in 2018 and (B) a lot of the underlying skills weren’t as sharp; his walk rate decline, his power shrank a bit.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, three 23-year-old hitters posted the following criteria in Triple-A with one organization (min. 350 PA): 105 to 115 wRC+, a 14% to 16% strikeout rate, and a 10% to 12% walk rate. Those three hitters: Desmond Jennings, Gregor Blanco, and Vidal Brujan.
- For those counting at home: Jennings finished his career with a 103 wRC+ total, and Blanco tallied a 93 wRC+.
He’s not going to be an impact bat, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be valuable big league player. Brujan once looked destine to develop a plus hit tool but it’s tracking more like a 50, maybe 50-plus, offering. He showed more power last season than at any point in his career, but Triple-A tended to inflate a lot of power output in 2021. But there’s a glaring red flag that has been overlooked the past couple of seasons, though: his inability to hit southpaws. In terms of big league ceiling think: .260/.340/.390. There’s more risk here than most people what to admit.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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7. Seth Johnson, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 50 | 55 | 45/50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Armed with a trio of first round picks in 2019, Tampa Bay spread the wealth around as they selected college shortstop Greg Jones with the 22nd overall pick, prep right-hander J.J. Goss 14 picks later, and closed out their opening round with college hurler Seth Johnson. The highest player drafted out of Campbell University, Johnson, who signed a deal worth $1.7 million, turned in an impressive debut showing as he spent time in the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues, posting a 16-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17.0 innings of work. Last year, with the return of minor league action, Johnson spent the entirety of his first full professional campaign with the Charleston RiverDogs in Low-A East, averaging 11.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. He compiled a 2.88 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and a 3.71 xFIP.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Impressive athleticism that readily apparent in controlled mechanics. Because of his limited experience on the mound, as well as his youth, Johnson has significantly more projection as compared to the typical three-year collegiate arm.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five 22-year-old hurlers met the following criteria in High-A with one organization (min. 75 IP): 28% to 30% strikeout percentage and a 7.5% to 9.5% walk percentage. Those five hurlers: Steven Matz, Alex Meyer, Matt Bower, Adrian Florencio, and – of course – former Campbell ace Seth Johnson.
As noted in the 2020 Handbook, Johnson’s fastball not only bumped up several ticks, but it firmly sits in 65-grade territory. He was sitting – comfortably – at 98 mph during one of his final starts of 2021. Average 12-6 curveball. Above-average tightly wound slider. And a firm – almost too firm – changeup that still projects to get to average. It’s a bit surprising the club didn’t bump the former first rounder up to High-A, particularly as he dominated the competition over his last 43.0 innings (he posted a 0.84 ERA with a 59-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio). He’s rawer than expected for a former college arm, though he made a late transition to pitching. There’s solid backend starting caliber potential. Expect the Rays to start to shove Johnson through the minors in 2022.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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8. Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 40 |
| FB | CB | CU | CH | Command | Overall |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 55 |
Background: There’s only one certainty when it comes to prospects (and prospecting): nothing is certain when it comes to prospects. Can’t miss prospects miss all the time. Generational talent – as well as production – flame out every year without reaching the full level of their potential. McKay was supposed to be what Shohei Ohtani was in 2021: a dynamic middle-of-the-lineup force and a bonafide upper-rotation-caliber starting pitcher when the Rays selected the former Louisville Cardinal star with the fourth overall pick in 2017. Except McKay hasn’t really hit across parts of four minor league seasons. And he missed all of 2020 and 2021 with serious shoulder woes. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound southpaw / first baseman underwent shoulder surgery two years ago, spending the majority of last season rehabbing from the injury. Then he went under the knife for thoracic outlet syndrome decompression surgery in late November – though he’s expected to be able to resume throwing around the start of Spring Training.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook (Pitcher): McKay commands the strike zone as well as any prospect in the minor leagues, showing the consistent ability to throw his entire repertoire for quality strikes. The problem for the big left-hander, though, is the arsenal seemed to regress a bit from the previous year. McKay was throwing – easily – in the mid-90s with a sharp, late-tilting curveball. Last season, though, he was 91- to 93-mph during the minor leagues (though he averaged 93 mph in the big leagues) with a slightly inconsistent curveball. The cutter remains a borderline plus-offering and has become a real equalizer. Despite the small dip in velocity, McKay still has the makings of a very good #3-type arm.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook (Hitter): The in-game power has – and will always be – a plus weapon. And he continues to show an incredibly patient approach at the plate. But the swing-and-miss issues that first popped up in High Class A two years ago continued their upward trend in 2019. He fanned in slightly more than 30% of his minor league plate appearances. Hitting a baseball at the professional level is the single most difficult skill to master in all of professional sports. And that’s not taking into account the fact that McKay’s developmental time is split between pitching and hitting. I don’t think the K-rates will be an issue long term, but I do wonder how long the Rays – with a loaded lineup – will allow McKay to work on both sides of the ball.
Scouting Report: The success rate for thoracic outlet syndrome surgery is far less successful than, say, Tommy John surgery. McKay was already staring down the path of a starting pitcher due to his lack of success with the bat, but even that future is murkier given the health woes. He showed a bevy of solid secondary offerings, so even if he loses a few ticks on the heater he should be able to survive as a backend starter.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019
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9. Xavier Edwards, IF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55/60 | 30 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: In one of the few trades that may not bounce the Rays’ way. Tampa Bay sent infielder Jake Cronenworth, the eventual runner-up to the Rookie of the Year award, and fading outfielder Tommy Pham to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe, minor league vagabond Esteban Quiroz, and former first rounder Xavier Edwards. The 38th overall pick in 2018, sandwiched between Cadyn Grenier and Jake McCarthy, Edwards has quickly and efficiently moved through the minor leagues during his first few seasons in pro ball. As a spry 18-year-old, the switch-hitting infielder spent the majority of his debut in the Northwest League. He appeared in nearly 50 games in High-A the following year. And he spent the entirety of last season handling the tough competition of Double-A. In 79 games with the Montgomery Biscuits, the 5-foot-10, 175-pound prospect batted .302/.377/.368 with 13 doubles, three triples, and 19 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 13%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Tremendous bat-to-ball skills, solid patience. But the power is almost non-existent at this point; he’s slugged just one homerun in his young career. Mallex Smith’s 2018 season with the Rays seems like a reasonable ceiling; he batted .296/.367/.406.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, three 21-year-old hitters posted the following criteria in Double-A with one organization (min. 300 PA): 108 to 118wRC+, a 10% to 14% strikeout rate, and a 8% to 11% walk rate. Those three hitters: Hank Conger, Henry Alejandro Rodriguez, and Xavier Edwards.
A unicorn of sorts, at least in today’s game. Edwards takes a slashing, high contact approach at the plate with above-average speed and a strong glove up the middle. The red flag, though, remains unchanged: he’s slugged just one dinger in 247 career minor league games. And his near 50% groundball rate doesn’t offer up much in terms of future power projection.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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10. Carson Williams, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The highest drafted player to come out of Torrey Pines High School since the Braves drafted – though failed to sign – hard-throwing right-hander Chad Hutchinson with the 26th overall selection all the way back in 1995. A two-way star for the California-based prep school, Williams was scouted as both a pitcher with a blazing fastball, as well as a frontline shortstop prospect. The 6-foot-2, 180-pound athlete’s heater reportedly kisses the upper 90s. And he compiled a .495 batting average during his senior season, belting out 10 doubles and 11 homeruns while swiping a whopping 34 bases. On the mound he struck out 28 and walked just three without surrendering a run in 15 innings of work. Tampa Bay drafted the prep star in the opening round, 28th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.3475 million, slightly below the recommended slot of $2.4939 million. Williams appeared in 11 games with the Rays’ Florida Complex League affiliate, hitting a solid .282/.404/.436 with four doubles, one triple, and a pair of stolen bases.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my draft write-up on the talented shortstop:
“Fundamentally solid on the defensive side of the ball with plenty of arm strength – of course – to make all the difficult throws. Williams may not be an elite shortstop, but he should have no issues sticking at the position. Offensively speaking, he’s used to swinging a wood bat and looks to take regular BP with one as well as used it during the 2020 summer/fall. Nice easy swing with above-average, not elite, bat speed. He needs to get stronger to take advantage of the natural loft in his swing. He won’t be a blue-chip prospect but has the chance to be a solid overall ballplayer.”
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
