Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Francisco Alvarez, C
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/60 | 55 | 35 | 55 | 50 | 70 |
Background: The Mets – perhaps unsurprisingly – have a lengthy list of strong backstops through the club’s history: Mike Piazza’s Hall of Fame plaque is adorned with New York’s hat; Gary Carter, the Kid, spent four All-Star seasons with the organization beginning in the 80s; Todd Hundley’s two midsummer classic appearances happened in 1996-97; Jerry Grote was a two-time All-Star and a key member of the Miracle Mets in ’69 and John Stearns was a four-time All-Star between 1977 and 1982. That doesn’t include solid seasons by Paul LoDuca, Mackey Sasser, and Ron Hodges either. And Francisco Alvarez, a wunderkind at the plate, is poised to become the next great Metropolitan backstop. Signed by the club for a hefty $2.7 million in early July, 2018, Alvarez ripped through both stateside rookie leagues during his debut the following year, slugging an aggregate .312/.407/.510 with 10 doubles and seven homeruns in only 42 games. Last season, despite the lost 2020 campaign, Alvarez continued to impressive in Low-A for 15 games before earning a promotion up to Brooklyn. In total, the 5-foot-11, 233-pound backstop batted .272/.388/.554 with 18 doubles, one triple, 24 homeruns, and eight stolen bases. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a staggering 48%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: It remains to be seen if Alvarez’s stocky frame will eventually push him from behind the plate, but the bat looks like it’ll play at any position on the diamond.
Scouting Report: Consider the following little tidbits:
- Since 2006, only four 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a season for one organization (min. 300 PA): 127 to 137 wRC+ and a walk rate of at least 9%. Those four hitters: Cody Bellinger, Addison Russell, Domingo Santana, and – of course – Francisco Alvarez.
- Last year there were 84 minor league catchers that received at least 300 plate appearances. Alvarez’s offensive explosion, as measured by wRC+, was the second best in the group, trailing only Kansas City’s M.J. Melendez.
- Since 2006, Alvarez’s 132 wRC+ ranks as 137th out 1,250 backstops with at least 300 plate appearances at any level, at any age.
- Alvarez’s 132 wRC+ in High-A is the best offensive showing for a teenage backstop at the level since 2006.
Above-average thump that could creep into plus territory in a couple years. Solid contact skills. Above-average patience at the plate. Not a terrible runner. Elite production against significantly older competition. And a solid enough glove so that he can stay behind the dish. After starting slowly in High-A last season – he batted .218/.342/.452 over his first 39 games – Alvarez slugged .271/.359/.606 over his remaining 45 contests. Elite catching prospect that closed the gap on Adley Rutschman’s status as the best in baseball.
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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2. Brett Baty, 3B/LF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 50/60 | 35 | 55 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Fun Fact Part I: Lake Travis High School in Austin, Texas, has been home to just five professional ballplayers – Brett Baty, Jim Lewis, Cohl Walla, Brad Dydalewicz, Denny McDaniel, and Doug Rummel. Fun Fact Part II: Baty and Lewis went in the first two rounds of the 2019 draft, both signing seven-figure deals. Baty, part of the loaded 2019 first round, was the 12th overall selection. The Mets bounced the sweet lefty-swinging third baseman through three separate levels during his debut that year, hitting an aggregate .234/.368/.452 with 16 doubles, two triples, and seven homeruns. Last season Baty upped his offensive game to elite levels. Splitting time between High-A and the minors’ toughest challenge, AA, the 6-foot-3, 210-pound prospect slugged an impressive .292/.382/.473 with 22 doubles, one triple, 12 homeruns, and six stolen bases. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 32%.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The bat speed is off-the-charts with impressive opposite-field power. And he showed a tremendously patient approach as well, walking in more than 15% of the plate appearances. He could very well wind up as a Three True Outcomes hitter if the bat doesn’t progress.
Scouting Report: Baty showed some potentially concerning swing-and-miss issues during his debut, fanning in nearly 29% of his plate appearances, so the fact that he was pushed into High-A and spent considerable amount of time in Double-A while improving his K-rate is incredibly encouraging. Baty still hasn’t tapped into his plus-raw power. And unlike a lot of power-hitting, lefty-swinging prospects, Baty doesn’t show any platoon concerns. He has to potential to elevate his production to the superstar stratus.
Ceiling: 5.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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3. Ronny Mauricio, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50/55 | 40 | 40 | 50 | 55 |
Background: It seemed that there were two constants with the Mets since Jose Reyes’ initial departure nearly a decade ago: #1. The shortstop position with the big league club was a seemingly endless revolving door and #2 The farm system always had a constant “heir apparent” at the position that never came to fruition. Francisco Lindor’s arrival last offseason squelched the big league issue and also quieted the need for Mauricio, the last prospect standing, to fill the role. Handed a hefty $2.1 million deal off the international free agent market, Mauricio continued to open eyes during his debut in a couple rookie leagues in 2018, hitting an aggregate .273/.304/.410. He followed that up with an intriguing showing as an 18-year-old in Low-A in 2019, batting .268/.307/.357 in 116 games with Columbia. Last season, Mauricio spent the lion’s share of the season with the Brooklyn Cyclones, hitting a disappointing .242/.290/.449 in 100 games. He also spent eight games with Binghamton as well.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The defense was a bit too spotty at times last season – and it remains to be seen as to whether he can stick as shortstop – but the bat should be no worse than league average. Smooth, easy swing. Plenty of bat speed, so there’s a chance the power ticks up into the 20-homer territory. There’s a noticeable ease at which he does everything on the field.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 20-year-old bats met the following criteria in a season with one organization (min. 400 PA): 90 to 100 wRC+, sub-6.0% walk rate, and a strikeout rate of at least 21%.Those four hitters: Mickey Moniak, Cesar Puello, Sean Coyle, and – of course – Ronny Mauricio.
It’s a pretty uninspiring collection of prospects: Moniak is a failed top prospect, Puello never panned out for the Mets, and Coyle flamed out for the Red Sox. But there is a bit of a silver lining for Mauricio: after starting the year out by hitting a lowly .216/.254/.412 over his first 50 contests, the 6-foot-3, 166-pound shortstop slugged a healthy .277/.332/.482 over his remaining 58 games (including his time in AA). Mauricio’s lack of patience at the plate severely limits his offensive ceiling. And it ultimately cost him a place among the Top 100 prospects this year.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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4. Mark Vientos, 3B/LF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 60 | 35 | 45 | 50 | 55 |
Background: There must be something in the water the Mets are handing out to their top minor league bats because Vientos – like Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, and Khalil Lee – turned in finest professional season to date in 2021. A second rounder out of American Heritage High School in 2017, Vientos spent the majority of last season shredding Double AA pitching before earning a late season promotion up to AAA – where he maintained his killer production. In 82 total games, the 6-foot-4, 185-pound third baseman / left fielder slugged .281/.352/.581 with 18 doubles and a career-high 25 dingers. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 46%, tied for the 42nd best among all minor leaguers with at least 300 plate appearances.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: At his peak, Vientos looks like a starting caliber third baseman on a non-contending team.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, there have been 132 qualified hitters to post a wRC+ total between 140 and 150 in Double AA in a season with one organization. Only seven of those have been by players during their age-21 season: Logan Morrison, Triston Casas, Miguel Vargas, Kyle Blanks, Justin Williams, Josh Stephen, and Mark Vientos.
And now the bad news: only two of those hitters struck out in more than 27% of their plate appearances – Stephen and Vientos. Average eye and glove. Vientos’ power really started to shine last season as he was on pace for 49 homeruns in a full 162-game season. According to FanGraphs, his average exit velocity was fairly impressive at 91 mph. The question is going to come down to his ability – or inability – to make consistent contact. It’s hard to believe, but he’s only entering his age-22 season, so there’s time to improve upon his K-rate. Boom-bust potential and there likely isn’t a level in between. If it does click, he could be an Austin Riley-type contributor.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2022
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5. Matt Allan, RHP
| FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 55 |
Background: Regarded as a near lock as an early first round talent heading into the 2019 draft, Allen, according to a variety of reports, was seeking a hefty bonus equivalent to Top 10 money. Scared off by the demands, as well as his commitment to the Florida Gators, Allan fell to the Mets in the third round and signed his name on the dotted line for a sizeable $2.5 million deal – which was roughly the money picks 23-25 signed for. The 6-foot-3, 225-pound right-hander tossed 10.1 low level innings during his debut and hasn’t been heard of since. The 2020 season was lost to COVID-19, and he underwent the knife to repair a partial tear in his UCL in early May last year. Always take the big money when it’s on the table, kids.
Scouting Report: With nothing new to report on his 2019, here’s my analysis prior to the draft:
“The owner of two plus- to plus-plus pitches. Allen attacks hitters with a lethal fastball/curveball combination that was – simply – too overpowering for his current peers. The fastball sits in the mid-90s, touching 96 mph on several occasions, and his knee-buckling curveball hovers in the 79- to 81-mph range. Allen generates the premium velocity without much effort and – generally – commands the zone well. His third offering, an upper-80s changeup, profiles no worse than average. Allen has the build and arsenal to suggest a #2-type ceiling.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2022
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6. Khalil Lee, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45 | 50 | 45 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
Background: For all intents and purposes, it was a big trade involving three clubs and seven players roughly a week before pitchers and catchers were supposed to start. The Mets acquired toolsy outfielder Khalil Lee, the Red Sox received Franchy Cordero, Josh Winckowski, Luis De La Rosa, Grant Gambrell, and Freddy Valdez; and the Royals got a fading former top prospect in Andrew Benintendi, who had a nice little bounce-back year in 2021. Lee, a third round pick out of Flint High School in 2016, has always flirted with a quasi-top prospect status. And he seemingly put it all together in New York’s system last season: appearing in 102 games with the Syracuse Mets, the 5-foot-10, 170-pound outfielder slugged .274/.451/.500 with 20 doubles, two triples, and 14 homeruns. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 62%. Lee also appeared in 10 games with the big league club as well, hitting .056/.056/.111.
Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: In terms of offensive upside think Shin-Soo Choo circa 2019 when he batted .265/.371/.455.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only five 23-year-old AAA hitters posted at least a 155 wRC+ in a season with one organization (min. 350 PA): Brandon Nimmo, Adam Eaton, Daniel Vogelbach, Jose Miranda, and – of course – Khalil Lee.
- To put that into perspective: Eaton owns a career 95 wRC+ and had a string of six consecutive seasons of well above-average offensive production; Nimmo, of course, has been a consistently underrated outfielder for the Mets and owns a 126 wRC+; Vogelbach has been a better-than-average big league bat since 2019; and Miranda continues to bide his time in the Twins’ system.
Now to be completely fair, Lee’s peripherals stick out like a sore thumb among the group. Elite eye? Check? However, his K-rate exploded in 2021 to a career worst 29.6% with Syracuse, though that came with the added pop in the bat. Above-average runner who didn’t steal nearly as much as he did with the Royals. Lee once looked like a potential Lorenzo Cain prototype due to his power-speed combo, but his defense is far from elite and he swings-and-misses way too much.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021
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7. J.T. Ginn, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Ginn was originally taken in between a couple of high profile prospects in the latter part of the first round four years ago, Bo Naylor and Shane McClanahan, both of whom signed with their respective clubs for over $2 million. The 30th overall pick by the Dodgers that year, Ginn opted to take the collegiate route and signed his letter of intent with Mississippi State University. And was an immediate success for the SEC powerhouse. In 17 starts as a true freshman, the 6-foot-2, 200-pound right-hander averaged nearly 11 strikeouts and just two walks per nine innings of work. Then his baseball world came crashing down. After just one start and three innings into what would eventually be a COVID-shortened campaign, the former first round pick succumbed to elbow woes and underwent the knife for Tommy John surgery. The Mets selected him with the 52 overall selection and signed him to a deal worth $2.9 million. Fully recovered last season, the Mississippi native made 18 starts between St. Lucie and Brooklyn, averaging a pedestrian 7.9 strikeouts and just 2.2 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with an aggregate 3.03 ERA.
Scouting Report: A bit disappointed. At least based on the reports on how he looked prior to undergoing the knife. Ginn, reportedly, was touching as 97 mph with his heater. But last season he was sitting 92, 93 mph and took some noticeable effort to get up to 94. His best complimentary offering is a biting, plus slider. He added a curveball, which is just a slower, lesser effective version of slider. And he’ll mix in an average changeup. And while he limited his walks, per the usual, his actual command was average at best – which is to be expected in a return from TJ. Backend starter unless the command and/or the heat upticks.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2022
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8. Calvin Ziegler, RHP
| FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 60 | 55 | 45/50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: TNXL Academyin AltamonteSprings, Florida, has become a bit of hotbed for baseball talent in recent years. The school is home to seven draft picks since 2017, three of them signing deals in excess of $300,000. Ziegler, a commit to Auburn University, was the Mets’ first pick last June, 46th overall, and signed with the NL East organization for slightly under a million dollars. He did not play appear in a minor league game last year.
Scouting Report: Easy plus velocity, which is surprising given his 6-foot frame. Ziegler also shows a surprising feel for the strike zone, particularly with his fastball. He’ll complement the offering, which will peak at 97 mph, with an above-average mid-80s slider, and a 90 mph changeup. Ziegler is maxed out from a physical standpoint, but he’s a high upside arm with the potential to be a #4-type starting pitcher. The changeup will need to be fine tuned.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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9. Dominic Hamel, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 45 |
Background: The 2020 season was short – for obvious reasons – but Hamel made the most of it. The 6-foot-2, 206-pound right-hander from Dallas Baptist was named Collegiate Baseball’s National Pitcher of the Week and Missouri Valley Conference Pitcher of the Week during mid-February. Last season the then-22-year-old hurler made 18 appearances for the Patriots, 16 of which were starts, throwing 91.2 innings with 136 strikeouts and just 34 free passes. He finished the year with a 4.22 ERA. The Mets drafted Hamel in the third round last July, 81st overall, signing him to a deal worth a smidgeon over $750,000. He made two brief appearances in the Florida Complex League, posting a 7-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in three innings of work.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Between 2011 and 2020, here’s the list of pitchers from the Missouri Valley Conference to average at least 13 strikeouts per nine innings in a season (min. 75 IP): Dominic Hamel.
Let’s continue:
- Between 2011 and 2020, here’s the list of Division I pitchers to average at least 13 strikeouts per nine innings with a walk rate between 3.00 BB/9 and 3.99 BB/9: Zac Lowther, Joey Murray, Zach Thompson, and Drey Jameson.
A standard four-pitch mix that’s highlighted by a fastball / slider combo that grades out as above-average. Hamel will show a slower curveball and a decent changeup. Hamel’s the type of pitcher that would excel in Cleveland’s farm system, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Mets develop the third round pick. There’s some sneaky mid-rotation upside.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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10. Alex Ramirez, CF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 40/45 | 40/55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Ranked as the 26th best prospect on the International Market by MLB.com two years ago. Ramirez, a toolsy 6-foot-3, 170-pound center fielder, signed with the Mets for $2.1 million. Hailing from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Ramirez made his professional debut last season as the club aggressively pushed him straight into full season action at the ripe ol’ age of 18. And he held his own against the older competition. In 76 games with the St. Lucie Mets, Ramirez batted a respectable .258/.326/.384 with 15 doubles, four triples, five homeruns, and 16 stolen bases (in 23 attempts). According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 4% below the league average mark.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- There’s a pretty impressive list of 18-year-old hitters that posted a wRC+ between 90 to 100 in Low-A in a season with one organization (min. 300 PA): Cristian Pache, Franmil Reyes, Ronny Mauricio, Leody Taveras, Rougned Odor, Cole Tucker, Tommy Joseph, Anthony Gose, Alex Liddi, Francisco Pena, Jay Austin, Jack Suwinski, and Alex Ramirez.
And now the bad news:
- Here’s the list of those players that fanned in at least 25% of their plate appearances: Alex Liddi, Jack Suwinski, and – unfortunately – Alex Ramirez.
Ramirez’s month of July basically did him in as he posted monthly OPS totals of .777, .566, .789, and .716. But, unfortunately, the strikeout rate remained pretty steady during his debut season. Ronny Mauricio has long been lauded as the best bat speed in the system – until Ramirez came along. The swing is long, but it’s ferocious and there’s a little Gary Sheffield bat waggle in there too. And he does not get cheated. Despite some natural loft he still put the ball on the ground too frequently last year. The K-rate is going to have to improve as he matures, but there’s a lot of potential with his premium athleticism.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com
