Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Prospects for 2022

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Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!

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1. Aaron Ashby, LHP

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Background: One of the more underrated arms in the entire minor leagues since entering the professional ranks as a fourth rounder in 2018. The nephew of big league veteran Andy Ashby, Aaron turned in a fantastic debut showing as he split time between Helena and Wisconsin that year, averaging 10.3 strikeouts and just 2.7 walks per nine innings. He followed that up with another solid showing as he opened the 2019 season back in Low-A before a mid-year promotion up Carolina: 126.0 IP, 135 strikeouts, 60 walks, and a 3.50 ERA. After minor league ball returned action in 2021, Milwaukee had the hard-throwing southpaw bypass Double-A and start the season with the Nashville Sounds in Triple-A East. And he was dominant. In 21 appearances, 12 of which were starts, the 6-foot-2, 181-pound hurler struck out 100 and walked 32 in 63.1 innings of work. Ashby made appeared in three separate stints with the Brewers throughout the year as well, averaging 11.1 strikeouts and just 3.4 walks per nine innings to go along with a 4.55 ERA.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Along with looking physically stronger / bulking in the lower half, Ashby’s fastball gained a few ticks on the radar gun, touching – on several occasions – as high as 95 mph. It’s a borderline plus pitch that may eventually move into 60-grade territory in the next year or two as he continues to get stronger. His curveball looked sharper with that same late tilt and bite. And his changeup remained in the above-average / 55-grade territory. The lanky lefty also added a fourth pitch: a low-80s slider with a lot of horizontal movement. There’s some #4-type potential, maybe more if the command ticks up.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only three 23-year-old pitchers met the following criteria in a Triple-A season with one organization (min. 50 IP): post a strikeout percentage of at least 35%. Those three pitchers: Max Scherzer, Tyler Glasnow, and – of course – Mr. Aaron Ashby.
  • For those counting at home, that’s (A) one surefire future Hall of Famer, (B) one of the best young arms in the game, and (C) Andy’s kid nephew, a former fourth round, the 125th overall player chosen in 2018.

Ashby’s heater has gained considerable velocity since entering professional ball, going from 91-mph all the way up to 98 mph last season. His curveball’s wicked sharp. His changeup, still an above-average offering, is in the same velocity range that his fastball was just four years ago. And his slider, a new offering in 2019, has morphed into a knee-buckling, fall-off-the-table swing-and-miss pitch. If the command can get to an average level Ashby will ascend to a bonafide #2-type arm. And I really think there’s some left-handed Corbin Burnes potential here. I really do.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021

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2. Garrett Mitchell, CF

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Background: Fun Fact: Mitchell became the highest drafted outfielder from UCLA since the Padres selected Shane Mack with the 11th overall selection all the way back in 1984. (On a bit of a side note: Mack put together a very underrated career, batting .299/.364/.456 across nine big league seasons; he also spent two successful seasons with the Yomiuri Giants in the Japan Central League.) Mitchell, a toolsy 6-foot-3, 215-pound outfielder, was originally drafted by the Athletics in the 14th round coming out of Orange Lutheran High School in 2017. He bypassed the late round offer and headed to the land of the Bruins. And he immediately established himself as one of the better bats in college baseball. The California native batted a respectable .280/.337/.331 with four doubles and a pair of triples during his freshman season. He returned to the Pac12 school with a vengeance the following year: in 62 games he slugged a scorching .349/.418/.566 with 14 doubles, 12 triples, six homeruns, and 18 stolen bases. And like so many other promising seasons, Mitchell’s fantastic junior campaign (.355/.425/.484) was interrupted because of COVID. The Brewers drafted him in the opening round, 20th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $3,242,900. The lefty-swinging outfielder made his professional debut in 2021. And it was a tale of two seasons. After just three games with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers the former Bruin hit the injury list, courtesy of a strained popliteus muscle in his leg. He missed nearly a month of action. He would eventually rip through the High-A competition to the tune of .359/.508/.620 in 29 games before earning a promotion to the minors’ most challenging levels, Double-A. Then his season tanked. In 35 games with Biloxi he hit .186/.291/.264.

Scouting Report: So, will the real Garrett Mitchell please stand up? Was he the Ruthian middle-of-the-lineup dreamboat that was on display during his scorching stint in High-A? Or was he simply the guy swinging a wet noodle at Double-A pitching? Truth be told – he’s probably somewhere in between. Mitchell’s never shown a tremendous amount of over-the-fence thump at any point since entering college, but he was on pace to swat 20 dingers in a full 162-game season last year. Is that real? No. His groundball rate at both levels was over 60%, an absurdly high mark. He also showed some swing-and-miss issues as well (26.5%) and some susceptibility to left-handers (.214/.329/.321). Now the good news: plus speed, above-average glove, and a willingness to spray the ball around the diamond. The swing-and-miss issues will likely prove to be an aberration and the hit tool has a chance to be an above-average weapon. He’s not going to be a star, but he could be a solid contributing player on a championship caliber squad. In terms of big league ceiling: think Trent Grisham, something along the lines of .250/.330/.430.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022/2023

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3. Sal Frelick, CF

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Background: Frelick’s high school resume reads like a novella: He was a two-time captain for the baseball, football, and hockey teams; the Boston Globe named him the Athlete of the Year after his senior season; he was named the Gatorade State Player of the Year for Massachusetts after his final high school season in which he tossed 30 touchdowns; and he’s a two-time league MVP on the gridiron and captured the award once on the diamond. A three-sport star during his prep career, Frelick received scholarship offers to play both baseball and football at Boston College – though eventually choosing to stay on the diamond to focus on a potential future career. Frelick ripped through the competition during his freshman season for the Eagles, slugging a healthy .367/.447/.513 with eight doubles, one triple, and four homeruns to go along with 18 stolen bases. That production earned him a spot on the All-ACC Second Team and ACC All-Freshman Team. D1Baseball, Collegiate Baseball News, and Perfect each named him as a Freshman All-American. His production tumbled during the abbreviated 2020 season; he hit .241/.380/.414 in 71 plate appearances. But after tearing through the Futures Collegiate Baseball League during the ensuing summer, Frelick’s offensive firepower came roaring back in 2021. In 48 games the 5-foot-9, 175-pound center fielder slugged .359/.443/.559 with career high in doubles (17), triples (2), and homeruns (six). He’s also swiped 13 bags in 18 attempts. Milwaukee selected him with the 15th overall pick last July, signing him to a deal worth $4,000,000. Frelick split time between three separate leagues during his professional debut, hitting an aggregate .329/.414/.466 with eight doubles, three triples, and two homeruns. He also swiped 12 bags in 14 total attempts.

Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Frelick prior to the draft last year:

“Consider the following:

  • Between 2011 and 2020, there just 13 instances in which an ACC hitter posted a .350/.440/.500 slash line with a double digit walk rate and a sub-14% strikeout rate in a season (min. 175 PA). Frelick’s 2021 season is the second time he’s accomplished the feat.

Very simple, low maintenance swing that shoots balls to the gap. The 5-foot-9, 175-pound center fielder doesn’t project to hit more than six to eight homeruns [in a season] in the professional ranks. But he consistently barrels the ball up. He’s another low ceiling, high floor prospect that has the ceiling of a .280/.340/.400-type hitter with solid defense.”

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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4. Freddy Zamora, SS

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Background: Flashing some complete package tools from the moment Zamora stepped onto the University of Miami’s campus. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound infielder batted .303/.388/.412 with 17 extra-base knocks as a true freshman. The Nicaragua-born shortstop followed that up with a slightly better showing during his sophomore campaign for the Hurricanes: appearing in 50 games for the ACC  squad, Zamora slugged .296/.393/.447 with 12 doubles and six homeruns to go along with 13 stolen bases (against just being thrown out only three times). Zamora was poised to be an early first round selection heading into his junior campaign, but a suspension and knee injury forced him out the entire year. The Brewers took a second round flier on Zamora, signing him to a deal worth $1.15 million. Fast forward a year and…BAM…Zamora looked every bit of a potential big league shortstop. In 92 games between Carolina and Wisconsin, the now-22-year-old batted .300/.404/.421 with 22 doubles, one triple, and six homeruns. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by an impressive 31%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Between 2006 and 2021, only three 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Low-A season with one organization (min. 300 PA): 120 and 130 wRC+ total, a walk rate north of 12%, and a strikeout rate between 17% and 20%. Those three hitters: Allan Dykstra, Jon Karcich, and Freddy Zamora.

After a slow start to the year, Zamora, who batted .213/.337/.267 over his first 20 games, flipped the switch and slugged .324/.423/.463 over his remaining 72 games. There’s a chance for three above-average or better tools: bat, speed, and glove. Zamora doesn’t project for much power, but may reach 10 or so homeruns in a season. There’s legitimate starting potential here. And it’s another example of the Brewers’ savvy drafting / developing. I’m a really big fan. A strong showing in AA in 2022 may put him in position for a late-season call up.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022/2023

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5. Joey Wiemer, OF

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Background: The University of Cincinnati’s produced three notable big leaguers in the school’s history: Kevin Youkilis, Josh Harrison, and Ian Happ, the ninth overall pick in the 2015 draft. As for Wiemer, Milwaukee selected the 6-foot-5, 215-pound outfielder in the fourth round two years ago, making him the fourth highest drafted player in Cincinnati’s history. Wiemer made his professional debut last season – and it was one to remember. After a 75-game tenure with the Carolina Mudcats in which he batted a healthy .276/.391/.478 with 11 doubles, two triples, and 13 homeruns, he continued his assault on low level minor league pitching with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. In 34 games with the club’s High-A affiliate, Wiemer batted .336/.428/.719. When the dust finally settled, he finished the year with an aggregate .295/.403/.556 slash line, belting out 18 doubles, two triples, 27 homeruns, and 30 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 55%. The former Bobcat ripped through the Arizona Fall League as well, sporting a .467/.568/.667 mark through nine games.  

Scouting Report: What. The. Actual. Hell? Wiemer went from slugging just 12 homeruns in 122 college games to belting out 27 in 109 minor league games. Clearly the Brewers’ scouting / analytic department saw something no one else did. With respect to Wiemer’s showing in Low-A last season, consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only three 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Low-A season with one organization (min. 300 PA): 130 to 140 wRC+, a walk rate north of 12%, and a strikeout rate between 20% and 23%. Those three hitters:  Ryan Costello, Jermaine Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer.

It’s still a touch too early to go all-in on Wiemer as a potential big league bat – after all, he was 22-years-old doing a good portion of his damage in Low-A. And he was playing half of his time in hitter-friendly confines (Carolina and Wisconsin,  by the way). But there is a lot to like. A lot. Above-average power. Above-Average speed. Good patience / willingness to work the count. Solid contact rates. Oh, yeah, his batted ball data was absurd. Per FanGraphs, his average exit velocity was 94 mph, tied for the tenth best in the minor leagues, with a peak velocity of 109 mph. With another strong showing in High-A / Double-A and Wiemer, the former Cincinnati nobody, could easily find himself on the brink of Top 100 prospect. stardom.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2023

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6. Brice Turang, SS

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Background: It’s difficult to believe, especially coming off of the 2021 draft class which was littered with high profile prep shortstops, but the Brewers made Turang just the third overall shortstop taken in the 2018 draft, second prep player at the position. The 21st overall selection that year, Turang was viewed as a rare low risk, high floor/low ceiling high school player. And, for the most part, he’s lived up to that billing. The lefty-swinging middle infielder split time between Biloxi and Nashville last season, hitting an aggregate .258/.347/.362 with 21 doubles, three triples, six homeruns, and 20 stolen bases (in 29 total attempts). His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was one percent below the league average threshold.  

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Turang began elevating the ball more frequently last year, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him belt out 12 or 15-homeruns during his peak. He’s a gamer and a potential All-Star.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only five 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Double-A season with one organization (min. 300 PA): 95 to 105 wRC+, 8% to 10% walk rate, and a sub-20% strikeout rate. Those five hitters: Eugenio Suarez, Tim Beckham, Mike Carp, Hak-Ju Lee, and Brice Turang.

A grinder at the plate that sniffs out first base via a walk with a high frequency. Turang continued his trend of improved flyball rates, posting a career-low 38.5% groundball rate during his extended stint in Double-A. He’s speedy, owns an above-average glove, and generally does things well without a lot of flare. There’s definite big league value here. Big ceiling: something along the lines of .270/.340/.380.  

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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7. Ethan Small, LHP

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Background: One of the most prolific strikeout artists in college baseball history. Small, a herky-jerky southpaw, averaged an impressive 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings during his three-year tenure at Mississippi State University. After a spectacular junior campaign in which he posted a 1.93 ERA while averaging nearly 15 K/9, the Brewers snatched Small with the 28th overall pick in 2019. After a  wildly successful debut in the lower levels of the minor leagues, Milwaukee aggressively shoved the long-limbered hurler up to Double-A and eventually to Triple-A during his first full season in professional ball. In total, Small tossed 77.1 innings of work, striking out 92 and walking 42 to go along with a 1.98 ERA and a 3.44 FIP. He missed some action for several weeks as he was dealing with a ligament issue in his left hand.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Small looks like a solid #3/#4-type arm at maturity. One final thought: Love to the bulldog mentality on the mound.

Scouting Report: It really was a tale of two seasons for the big left-hander: he was incredibly dominant during his eight-start cameo in Double-A, averaging 14.6 K/9, but his swing-and-miss rate declined all the way down to a disappointing 6.2 K/9 during his nine starts in Triple-A. The fastball’s going from average-ish to better-than-average; it was sitting in the 92- to 93-mph range during a start in AAA. His changeup is an elite offering, generating tons of weak contact and swings-and-misses. It’s the type of pitch that’s tough to hit, even if the opposition is sitting on it. It looks like he’s scrapped his curveball for a more tradition slider, showing pretty solid horizontal movement. Small has consistently posted lower-than-expected, even miniscule, ERAs. He looks like a potential backend starting option.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2021

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8. Jeferson Quero, C

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Background: Recognized by MLB.com as one of the better catching prospects on the international scene a couple years ago. The Brewers handed the 5-foot-10, 165-pound teenage backstop a relatively small pittance of just $200,000 – a sum that looks like quite the bargain three years later. Making his official debut last season with the organization’s Arizona Complex League, Quero slugged a hearty .309/.434/.500 with five doubles, one triple, and a pair of homeruns. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by a whopping 48%. His season ended a bit prematurely, courtesy of a surgical procedure to repair a separated shoulder on his non-throwing arm.

Scouting Report: There’s not a lot of information lack here: (A) Quero appeared in just 23 Complex League games last season, garnering only 83 plate appearances and (B) there’s no game tape, as far as I can tell, of Quero. With that being said, he did show an interesting bat-first approach at the plate during his debut last season, shooting the ball from gap-to-gap without much bias. He also walked more times (12) then he whiffed (10). Defensively, he looked to be an above-average defender in limited action while throwing out roughly one-third of would-be base thieves.  

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2025

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9. Tyler Black, 2B

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Background: A tough as nails competitor – as evidenced by his hockey and football background – Black was one of college baseball’s most lethal, as well as underrated, bats since 2019. Appearing in 47 games at the keystone and another five at shortstop as a true freshman for Wright State, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound Black battered the competition to the tune of .353/.469/.600 with 11 doubles, five triples, seven homeruns, and eight stolen bases. He finished the year with an impeccable 18-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Black’s production stumbled a bit during his 13-game COVID-shortened 2020 campaign; he hit .239/.340/.370. But it came roaring back during his dominant 2021 follow up. In 48 games for the raiders, Black slugged a hearty .383/.496/.683 with career highs in doubles (14), homeruns (13), and stolen bases (11). He finished the year with 39 walks and 25 punch outs. Milwaukee selected the Canadian-born infielder in the opening round last July, 33rd overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.2 million. Black appeared in 26 games during his debut, 23 of them with Carolina in Low-A, hitting a lowly .241/.426/.322 with four doubles and a dinger.   

Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote prior to the draft last year:

“Consider the following:

Black, of course, fits into the aforementioned group. Above-average, perhaps even peaking with a plus-hit tool. Solid-average power. Can run a little bit. Tremendous bat-to-ball skills. Great eye. Add it all up and Black is one of the more underrated prospects in the draft class. He feels like A Tampa Bay or Oakland-type prospect.”

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024

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10. Hedbert Perez, CF

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Background: Fun Fact Part I: Perez’s old man, Robert, spent parts of six seasons at the big league level, four of them coming north of the border with the Blue Jays. Fun Fact Part II: during the 1996 season, his longest extended look at the big leagues, Robert slugged a scorching .327/.354/.406 with 10 doubles and a pair of homeruns in 86 games. Fun Fact Part III: despite the impressive slash line that years, the elder Perez’s OPS+ was still below average (93). Milwaukee signed the younger Perez for a sizeable $700,000 bonus three years ago. Hedbert made his professional debut in the Complex League last summer, swinging a hot stick to the tune of .333/.394/.575 with 11 doubles and six homeruns in just 32 contests. The front office bounced him to up Low-A at the end of August for a couple – mostly disappointing – weeks to cap off his first year of action. Perez finished the year with an aggregate .276/.330/.459.

Scouting Report: There were 140 players to receive at least 100 plate appearances in the Arizona Complex League last season, Perez’s overall production, 148 wRC+, was tied for the 11th best. Quick bat. Short, compact swing. Perez showed surprising power during his debut in the Complex League, but there was a semi-concerning amount of swing-and-miss to his approach as well, which was only further exploited after his promotion up to Low-A. He’s a hacker, so he’s not going to walk a whole lot. Loves the high pitch.  

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2025

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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com

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