Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Prospects for 2023

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Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!

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1. Miguel Vargas, 1B / 3B / LF

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
6550/6050/405045/5070

Background: There was a lot of talk – especially coming from me – on the impressive bloodlines in a lot of the top prospects in the MLB Draft last summer. The sons of Matt Holliday, Andruw Jones, Carl Crawford, and Lou Collier played prominent roles throughout the opening day of the draft. But there were lesser-known family ties to the game as well, like Brooks Lee, whose father happens to captain the ship at Cal Poly, or Jace Jung and Daniel Susac, both of whom have notable big league brothers. Miguel Vargas’s ties to the game fall somewhere in between. Vargas’ father, Lazaro, led the Cuban Serie Nacional in hits during the 1983-84 season and was eventually named the league’s Most Valuable Player. The elder Vargas also spent some time on Cuba’s Olympic squads as well, including the Gold Medal-winning 1996 team. The younger Vargas is already proving to be the superior ballplayer. Signed for only $300,000 after defecting from his home country, the 6-foot-3, 205-pound corner infielder / outfielder immediately started impacting the club’s prospect rankings. He mashed .330/.404/.465 with 15 doubles, three triples, and a pair of homeruns in 53 low level games during his debut in 2018. A year later he was bashing his way through Low-A and High-A to the tune of .308/.380/.440. And he continued battering the competition in 2021 as he split time between Great Lakes and Tulsa, slugging .319/.380/.526. Last season Vargas appeared in 113 games with the Oklahoma City Dodgers, compiling an impressive .304/.404/.511 slash line with 32 doubles, four triples, 17 homeruns, and 16 stolen bases (in 21 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 29%. Vargas also made 18 appearances with the big league club, going 8-for-47 with a double, a long ball, and a stolen base. He slashed .170/.200/.255 during that time.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only three 22-year-old hitters posted a 125 to 135 wRC+ with a double-digit walk rate and a 12% to 16% strikeout rate in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): Jesse Winker, Chris Young, and – of course – Miguel Vargas. For those counting at home: Winker owns a 126 wRC+ career mark through 549 games and Young finished his career with a 95 wRC+.

Possessing one of the best hit tools in the minor leagues, Vargas has yet to fully tap into his plus power potential – but it’s coming, especially in the Dodgers’ hitting school. Tall and lanky with plenty of room to fill out. Vargas has the potential to win multiple batting titles in his big league career. He consistently barrels up the ball. Plus bat speed. And he improved his pitch selection in 2022, which was already impressive. Defensively, he plays third base and left field like a first baseman. He’s going to be a .315/.380/.500 hitter.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022

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2. Diego Cartaya, C

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
506030605560

Background: The Dodgers’ history book is littered with the achievements of two of the greatest catchers in history. Roy Campanella was the preeminent catcher during the peak of his career as he captured three MVP awards and was named to eight straight All-Star games before his career was tragically cut short. He was so good that Ty Cobb once remarked, “Campanella will be remembered longer than any catcher in baseball history.” Four decades later the club’s farm system churned out a former 62nd round pick that would eventually go on to become the game’s best power-hitting backstop in history. Mike Piazza captured the National League Rookie of the Year in 1993, the second of five consecutive Dodgers to earn the award, and was named to 12 All-Star teams. Dodgers’ catching greatness isn’t just limited to the pair of Hall of Famers either, though. Mike Scioscia was a two-time All-Star and earned more than 26 wins above replacement in his 13-year career, all of which were spent in a Dodgers uniform. Lefty-swinging John Roseboro was a five-time All-Star and captured two Gold Glove awards- though he’s largely remembered for something else. Steve Yeager, Paul Lo Duca, Russell Martin (who quietly assembled a borderline Hall of Fame career), and current Dodger Will Smith all have been stout performers as well. Diego Cartaya is poised to become the next notable Dodgers backstop, maybe even more. Signed off the international scene during the 2018 signing period, the front office brass handed the power-hitting backstop a massive $2.5 million deal. And almost immediately Cartaya proved to be worth every single penny. A native of Maracay, Venezuela, the 6-foot-3, 219-pound catcher slugged .281/.343/.432 during his debut in 2019 – most of the time coming in the Arizona Summer League. Once minor league action returned from its pandemic-induced absence, Cartaya mashed his way through an injury-shortened campaign in Rancho Cucamonga, slugging .298/.409/.614 with six doubles and 10 homeruns in only 31 games. Last season, the promising youngster appeared in a career-best 95 games (two third of them coming in High-A) while setting personal highs in doubles (22) and homeruns (22) en route to slugging .254/.389/.503. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production surpassed the league average threshold by an impressive 39%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any High-A league (min. 275 PA): 133 to 143 wRC+ with a 24% to 28% strikeout rate. Those three hitters: Ryan McMahon, Khalil Lee, and – of course – Diego Cartaya.

Cartaya’s never going to be confused with Johnny Bench or Yadier Molina behind the dish, but he’s solid enough where he’s likely to remain at the spot, though his bat – clearly – plays at any power-hitting position. As much raw power as any hitter in the Dodgers’ system. Little unnecessary movement during his setup at the plate, Cartaya does a tremendous job keeping his hands inside the ball. He looks like a young Juan Gonzalez throughout his swing. Plus bat speed, plus in-game power with plus-plus raw power. He’s going to be a .280/.350/.500 big league hitter – assuming he can stay healthy.  

Ceiling: 5.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024

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3. Bobby Miller, RHP

FBCBSLCHCommandOverall
605560555560

Background: The club opened up their COVID-limited 2020 draft class with three straight college hurlers, nabbing University of Louisville ace Bobby Miller with the 29th overall pick, East Tennessee righty Landon Knack with the 60th selection, and then grabbing Texas Tech flame-thrower Clayton Beeter six picks later. Miller was magnificent during his limited junior campaign for Head Coach Dan McDonnell, posting an impressive 34-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 23.1 innings

. The hard-throwing right-hander would make his affiliated debut in 2021, making 14 appearances with Great Lakes and three starts with Tulsa. He finished the season with 70 punch outs and 13 free passes in 56.1 innings during his injury-interrupted campaign. Last season, Miller made 24 appearances, 23 of which were starts, between Tulsa and Oklahoma City, averaging 11.6 punch outs and just 3.0 walks per nine innings. He finished his sophomore professional season with a 4.25 ERA and a 3.68 FIP.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only three 23-year-old hurlers met the following criteria in any Double-A league (min. 75 IP): 29% to 32% strikeout percentage with a 7% to 9% walk percentage. Those three hurlers: Taylor Widener, Alexander Guillen, and – of course – Bobby Miller.

An intense, intimidating mound presence with the arsenal to front a big league rotation. The formerly erratic collegiate hurler landed in an ideal spot due to the Dodgers’ pitching development success. At his best, the 6-foot-5, broad-shouldered right-hander will show two borderline plus-plus offerings (fastball and slider), an above-average changeup, and a sneaky – albeit rare – curveball. Miller’s command had a tendency to waver at points during his amateur days, but he’s been locked in on not only throwing strikes, but quality strikes since joining the organization – which isn’t a coincidence. There’s a lot of similarities between the former Louisville ace and Walker Buehler. Fast, efficient worker. Miller just needs to take that final step towards ace-dom.  

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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4. Dalton Rushing, C

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
45/505520505055

Background: An unknown – at least to the casual fan – heading into the 2022 season. Of course, locked into a backup role behind the eventual top pick in the 2021 draft will have that effect. But Rushing, a lefty-swinging backstop, patiently waited for his opportunity for a full time starting gig. And he capitalized on it. After seeing limited time as Henry Davis’s backup during his freshman and sophomore seasons, Rushing got his first taste of regular action as a member of the Bourne Braves during the summer of 2021. He responded by slugging .314/.401/.542 with nine doubles and six homeruns in 34 games. And he carried that momentum into his breakout junior campaign. In 64 games for the Cardinals, the 6-foot-1, 220-pound catcher mashed .310/.470/.686 with 16 doubles, 23 homeruns, and four stolen bases. He finished the year with an impeccable 58-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio as well. The Dodgers selected Rushing in the second round, 40th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1,956,890. Then he promptly shredded the Low-A pitching to the tune of .424/.539/.778 with 11 doubles and eight homeruns in only 28 games.

Scouting Report: My pre-draft write-up:

“Consider the following:

  • Since 2011, only four Division I hitters met the following criteria in a season (min. 275 PA): bat at least .300/.450/.675 with a walk rate north of 15% and a strikeout rate between 18% and 22%. Those four hitters: Jonathan India, the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year and fifth overall pick in 2018; Brent Rooker, the 35th overall pick in 2017; Austin Listi (met the criteria as a 23-year-old); and Dalton Rushing.

Rushing continues to play the shadow to other backstops. This time, though, it’s catchers in the 2022 draft class. Above-average patience at the plate, solid contact skills, and above-average thump. He also controls the opposition’s running game incredibly well. Starts from a wide, open stance. Good bat speed. He’s going to face shifts (for as long as they’re legal). There’s more projection left for someone his age, thanks to his lack of playing time the first few years in college.”   

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2025

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5. Gavin Stone, RHP

FBSLCHCommandOverall
5550605550

Background: The club used their final selection in the COVID-capped five-round 2020 draft on Gavin Stone. The 6-foot-1, 175-pound right-hander was nearly unhittable during his final two seasons at the University of Central Arkansas as he tallied an impeccable 1.44 ERA over 75 innings, recording an 89-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the Southland Conference squad. Stone opened up the 2021 season with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, but after a dominant 18-game tenure, the front office bumped him up to Great Lakes for five final starts. The former Bear struck out 138 and walked just 25 across 91.0 innings. Last season, Stone’s performance harkened back to his collegiate days as he tallied a shimmering 1.48 ERA across 25 starts and one relief appearance with Great Lakes, Tulsa, and Oklahoma City. He averaged 12.4 strikeouts and just 3.3 walk per nine innings. For his career, Stone is averaging 12.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 212.2 innings of work.

Scouting Report: The former University of Central Arkansas ace paced the minor leagues in ERA last season – by a wide margin, by nearly half-of-a-run. Stone takes a simplistic approach to pitching: change speeds, fill up the strike zone with quality offerings, and own a spectacular changeup. The slight-framed right-hander’s fastball operates in the 91- to 94 mph range. His average-ish slider hovers around 86- to 87-mph. And, of course, there’s his mid-80s change as well. Stone fits it that Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, Ross Stripling mold that the organization seems to utilize / develop exceptionally well.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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6. Michael Busch, 2B

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
456035605055

Background: The Dodgers’ 2019 draft class may eventually end up proving to be a miss by a traditionally exceptionally savvy team. Their first pick, Kody Hoese, has been an utter disaster at the plate throughout the duration of his career. Jimmy Lewis, the behemoth right-hander out of Lake Travis High School who was taken in the second round, just posted an 8.28 ERA in 25.0 innings last season. Brandon Lewis, their fourth rounder, just batted .209/.271/.438 in his first stint in Double-A. So the success of the club’s entire class hangs on the shoulders of Jimmy Lewis, who lacks a reliable third offering, and Michael Busch. Taken six selections after Kody Hoese, Busch was a man without a position during his collegiate days but was a consistent force at the dish during his sophomore and junior campaigns. After a brief jaunt through the rookie league and Low-A during his debut, the front office aggressively challenged the former first rounder and sent him directly to the fires of Double-A. And he came out relatively unscathed as he mashed .267/.386/.484 with 27 doubles, one triple, and 20 homeruns in 107 games. Last season, the front office brass sent the lefty-swinging second baseman / left fielder back to Double-A for some more seasoning, but after mashing for six weeks he was eventually bumped up to Triple-A for the remainder of the year.  Busch batted an aggregated .274/.365/.516 with 38 doubles and 32 homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 18%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only three 24-year-old hitters posted a 97 to 107 wRC+ with a 25% to 27% strikeout rate and a 9% to 11% walk rate in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): Josh Bell, the former Orioles prospect and not the current Guardians first baseman, Eric Wood, and Michael Busch.

The good news is that Busch put his horrific showing against lefties in 2021 (.198/.355/.354) behind him as he batted a respectable .258/.352/.477 against southpaws in 2022. Plus power potential that even Oklahoma City’s homer-suppressing ballpark couldn’t slow him down as he belted out a career best 32 dingers. Nose for first base. 45-grade hit tool that’ll constantly register consistent batting averages in the .240- to .250-range. Big league ceiling: .245/.340/.460. He seems primed to be the big league club’s next version of Max Muncy.

Ceiling: 3.0 to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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7. Ryan Pepiot, RHP

FBSLCHCommandOverall
5550704550

Background: Perceived as the – underrated – darling of the club’s always bountiful farm system since entering the organization as a third round pick in 2019. The former Butler University ace with sometimes problematic command continued to miss bats – and the strike zone – during his brief debut that summer as well, posting a 31-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 23.1 innings between the old Arizona Summer and Midwest Leagues. After minor league action returned from the lost 2020 COVID season, Los Angeles sent the promising – still erratic – right-hander straight in the fires of Double-A. And he was a revelation – or at least close to one. Pepiot struck out 81 and walked 26 in 59.2 innings of work with Tulsa. But his command was like a fleeting dream during a second half promotion up to Oklahoma City as he walked 21 (with 46 punch outs) in only 41.2 innings of work. Pepiot spent the entirety of last season yo-yoing between Oklahoma City and big leagues as he was promoted and demoted six separate times. He finished the minor league season with 91.1 innings of work, averaging 11.2 strikeouts and just 3.5 walks per nine innings. And while his 3.47 ERA with the Dodgers appeared swell, he managed to walk 27 in only 36.1 innings.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only three 24-year-old hurlers posted a 28% to 32% strikeout percentage with a 9% to 11% walk percentage in any Triple-A league (min. 75 IP): Kolby Allard, Brock Burke, and Ryan Pepiot.

Nothing’s really changed since 2021. Pepiot’s fastball sits in the low- to mid-90s with above-average spin (2400 RPM) that helps it up in the zone. And his change is – arguably – the finest in professional baseball. It’s up there right alongside Lucas Giolito, it’s that good. His slider hovers in the 50-grade range. His command continues to waver at points, sometimes pitch-to-pitch. Pepiot has Tony Gonsolin-type production potential, but he needs to learn how to consistently throw quality strikes. 

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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8. Andy Pages, RF

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
35/406035555550

Background: In terms of the baseball card market, there wasn’t a showing that turned more heads in 2021 than Pages’ breakout campaign with the Great Lakes Loons. And while some of his cards still command a premium, the market on Pages is – clearly – cooling. Signed out of La Habana, Cuba for $300,000 in 2017, Pages turned in a batting average-deficient debut showing the following summer as he hit .229/.392/.464 with nine doubles and ten homeruns in 52 games between the foreign and stateside rookie leagues. The 6-foot-1, 212-pound rightfielder, however, came roaring back in 2019 as he feasted off the Pioneer League pitching to the tune of .298/.398/.651 with 43 extra-base knocks in only 63 games with Ogden. The club bounced him up to High-A at the start of 2021. And he flourished. Appearing in 120 games with the Loons of Great Lakes, the Cuban outfielder batted .265/.394/.539 with 25 doubles and 31 dingers. Last season, though, Pages’ hit tool vanished as he squared off against the toughest minor league level – Double-A. He batted .236/.336/.468 with 29 doubles, three triples, 26 homeruns, and six stolen bases. His overall production topped the league average mark by 2%, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus. His offense rebounded during his 22-game stint in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .296/.398/.506 with Glendale.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, three 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): 97 to 107 wRC+, a 9% to 12% walk rate and a 23% to 26% strikeout rate. Those three hitters: Jonathan Villar, Yorman Rodriguez, and Andy Pages.

The year started off on the right foot for Pages as he slugged an impressive .316/.435/.509 over the first couple of weeks. But after that, though, he hit .222/.318/.455 over his remaining 119 games. Pages owns some of the best power in the minor leagues, but it’s going to come down to whether the hit tool performs. And it didn’t last year in Double-A and it didn’t in either rookie ball league either. Offspeed stuff gives him fits, like Jarred Kelenic. And he can’t get on top of high, hard offerings either. He’s very pitchable. But he can bang middle-middle stuff. 

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2023/2024

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9. Yunior Garcia, 1B / RF

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
50/5545/5035505050

Background: An under-the-radar signing during the summer of 2017. The front office quietly handed the promising first baseman / outfielder a $300,000 deal, the max the organization was allowed to spend due to their big expenditures a few years prior. Garcia looked completely overwhelmed during his first two years in pro ball, hitting .226/.319/.411 as a 16-year-old in the Dominican Summer League and .236/.253/.403 in the Arizona Summer League a year later. The front office brass decided to keep the then-19-year-old in the Complex League in 2021 and – finally – his bat showed some promising signs of life: he slugged .300/.371/.473 with five doubles, one triple, and four homeruns in 31 games. And Garcia, who measures in at 6-feet and 198 pounds, continued that momentum towards his breakout with Rancho Cucamonga in 2022. Appearing in 98 games with the Quakes, the Bani, Dominican Republic native mashed .305/.383/.512 with 28 doubles, one triple, 13 homeruns, and – just for good measure – a pair of stolen bases. As measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production surpassed the league average mark by 30%. Garcia appeared in 10 games with the Loons to cap off his wildly successful campaign.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Betting big on Garcia means betting on his plus bat speed. The young Dominican first baseman (and part-time right-fielder) is still beginning to tap into his offensive ceiling, including above-average thump. There’s some Josh Bell level of offensive potential with Garcia. The Dodgers are going to send him back to High-A at the start of the year, but an extended stint in Double-A isn’t out of the question either. Breakout candidate. There’s a .280/.340/.440 type ceiling, but it’s risky at this point. It’s a long shot, but he could be a Top 100 prospect within a year.   

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2024/2025

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10. Maddux Bruns, LHP

FBCBSLCHCommandOverall
6060605035/4060

Background: For the first time since Clayton Kershaw’s selection in the opening round in 2006, the Dodgers of Los Angeles opted for a teenage southpaw in the first round of the draft. Less than two years later after his joining the organization, Kershaw was starring for the Dodgers on what would become the first steps of a historic, Hall of Fame career. Maddux John Bruns, who was named after Greg Maddux and John Smoltz, isn’t embarking on the same meteoric rise through the minor leagues. Taken with the 29th overall pick two years ago – and the only selection the organization owned among the Top 100 picks – Bruns dominated the competition at Alabama-based UMS-Wright Prep. But the club’s $2.4 million investment hardly resembled the same hurler since donning a professional uniform. Bruns showed some yips during his abbreviated debut in the Complex League, posting a 5-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five innings of work. And what was hoped to be a minor speed bump in loss of command, proved to a Grand Canyon-esque roadblock. Last season, in 21 starts with Rancho Cucamonga, Bruns averaged 13.6 strikeouts and a historically poor 9.1 walks per nine innings.

Scouting Report: You could make the argument – and a rather strong argument – that Bruns owns the best repertoire in the entire Dodgers’ farm system. And that’s saying something given some of the high octane arms the club’s stashed away in the minor leagues. Explosive, late-lifed fastball that’s difficult to get on top of, even if a hitter is sitting on it. A wickedly unfair snap-dragon of curveball, like it was betrothed to him from Clayton Kershaw, who was handed down the secret from Sandy Koufax. His slider adds a third plus offering. And his changeup may eventually creep into above-average territory. But the elephant in the room is whether Bruns can hit the broadside of a barn, let along throw strikes consistently. If Bobby Miller’s baseball ceiling is the equivalent to a million dollar mansion, then Bruns’ house is in the same neighborhood – it just needs a little TLC. And strikes. Lots of strikes.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Extreme

MLB ETA: 2025/2026

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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.

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