Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects for 2023

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Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!

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1. Elly De La Cruz, 3B / SS

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
45/5560605050/5570

Background: Every season there’s typically one player, usually a hitter, who separates himself from the rest of the pack, both in terms of production and excitement. Last season that hitter was Elly De La Cruz, a heralded signing off the international market during the summer of 2018. De La Cruz joined the organization for a paltry $65,000 – essentially the sum of a fully loaded family minivan. The 6-foot-5, 200-pound infielder turned in a decent, yet unremarkable debut showing in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, batting .285/.351/.382. But something happened during the lost COVID-season of 2020, something remarkable. De La Cruz emerged from the pandemic like Clark Kent from a phone booth. The Dominican dandy shredded the Complex League competition and flashed some intriguing tools during his 50-game stint with Daytona. He finished the year with a .296/.336/.539 slash line with 18 doubles, nine triples, eight homeruns, and 10 stolen bases. And while the production was impressive, it paled in comparison to what was waiting in 2022. The front office sent the toolsy infielder up to High-A at the start of the year, but after mashing .305/.360/.609, the franchise released him upon the competition awaiting in Double-A, the minor’s toughest challenge. And Superman came out victorious. De La Cruz, who grew several inches and put on 40 pounds of good weight over the past couple of seasons, mashed an aggregate .304/.359/.586 with 31 doubles, nine triples, 28 homeruns, and 47 stolen bases (in 53 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, De La Cruz’s overall production topped the league average mark by a massive 50%, the tenth best showing among all minor league hitters with more than 450 plate appearances.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

For those counting at home:

  • Yelich is a 2x batting champ, Gold Glove winner, 2x All-Star, and MVP.
  • Seager is a former Rookie of the Year winner, 3x All-Star, and 2x Silver Slugger.
  • Hosmer is a former Silver Slugger award winner and owns one All-Star appearance on his resume.
  • Ramirez has quietly put together a solid .281/.320/.405 slash line in his big league career.

And now the bad news…

  • De La Cruz’s strikeout rate last season in High-A, 30.7%, was – by far – the worst mark among the group. In fact, it was 50% higher than the runner-up (Corey Seager).

De La Cruz fell just short of a seemingly unreachable plateau: 30 homeruns and 50 stolen bases. The offensive dynamo was just two homeruns and three stolen bases shy of the mark. Just for a reference point: only two big leaguers achieved the feat – Eric Davis, in 1987, and Barry Bonds, who accomplished it just three years later. Arguably the most exciting player not in the big leagues, De La Cruz is just scratching what seems like limitless potential. Long and lanky with plenty of quick-twitchy movements. Explosive bat speed. Plus power. Plus speed. The potential for him to develop into a borderline Gold Glove winner at the infield’s most important position is present. He’s the type of player that can become the face of the game in an instant. But his whiff rates continue to be concerning. It’s likely going to improve as the maturation process plays out and the game slows down. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .290/.350/.550.

Ceiling: 7.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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2. Cam Collier, 3B

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
556050605070

Background: Lou Collier beat the odds. The Astros took a 56th round flier on the former utility infielder / outfielder coming out of Vocational High School in 1991. Instead of joining the organization the 5-foot-10, 170-pound teenager headed to Kishwaukee College for a year before the Pirates took another late round flier on the Chicago-born prospect, nabbing him in the 31st round (875th overall). But here’s the thing: Collier hit as soon as he stepped foot onto a professional diamond. And he’d hit at every stop along the minor league ladder, slashing .304/.356/.368 as a 19-year-old in the New York-Penn League all the way up to a .330/.393/.441 showing as a 23-year-old in Triple-A. In total, Collier would spend eight mostly non-descript years in the big leagues as a replacement level player. But he wasn’t supposed to make it out of the lower minors. Not as a 31st round pick. Collier’s kid, Cam, dwarfed his old man’s draft status by 857 picks in the 2022 draft. And he did so as one of the class’s youngest players. Originally slated for the 2023 draft, Collier reclassified after his stellar sophomore high school season at Mount Paran Christian School (he batted .434 with 13 homeruns and 19 stolen bases) and spent the 2022 season at JuCo Chipola College. The baby-faced 17-year-old, who remarkably was named on the preseason Golden Spikes Watch List, more than held his own: .333/.419/.537 with 12 doubles, eight homeruns, and five stolen bases. He also made 10 relief appearances for the squad as well, posting a 16-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11.1 innings of work. Prior to joining Chipola he had committed to the University of Louisville. Cincinnati selected him with the 18th overall pick, signing him to a deal worth $5 million, well above the recommended $3.69 million slot. He hit the ground running, slugging .370/.514/.630 in nine Complex League games.

Scouting Report: My pre-draft scouting report:

“Confident. And a lot of fun to watch during each at bat. Collier shows an advanced approach at the plate with patience that belies his age – especially considering his level of competition as a 17-year-old. He shows an incredible willingness to let pitcher’s pitches pass and wait for mistakes. Short bat to the zone. Plus power potential with the possibility the hit tool climbs into a perennial .280 threat. The lefty-swinging Collier also shows the ability to hang in against tough left-handed pitching. He made a lot of mechanical adjustments from mid-2021 to last year, holding his hands lower, tighter to his body and a more pronounced crouch. Soft hands on defense. And his long term position is likely going to be third base as he continues to add bulk to his lean frame. Collier’s one of my favorite prep prospects in the class – enough so, that I might make him the top pick – especially if he takes a discount.”

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2025

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3. Edwin Arroyo, SS

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
5550/5555505060

Background: Viewed as the second best prospect the ball club received from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo swap last summer. Arroyo is confidently making a strong argument as the club’s top return piece. Originally taken by the Mariners in the second round of the 2021 draft, Arroyo looked abysmal during his abbreviated debut in the Complex League that summer, hitting a lowly .211/.337/.324 with just a pair of doubles and dingers in 21 games. Undeterred by his lackadaisical initial showing, the front office sent the former early round pick up to Low-A at the start of last season. And he blossomed. Appearing in 87 games with the Modesto Nuts, the 6-foot, 175-pound shortstop batted .316/.385/.514 with 19 doubles, seven triples, 13 homeruns, and 21 stolen bases. His numbers took a noticeable step backwards during his brief tenure with the Daytona Tortugas as he batted a lowly .227/.303/.381. He finished the year with an aggregate .293/.366/.480 with 25 doubles, 10 triples, 14 homeruns, and 27 stolen bases (in 33 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 20%.

Scouting Report: One of the more uniquely talented ballplayers in the minor leagues, Arroyo is an ambidextrous thrower and was quite the amateur southpaw – despite playing shortstop as a right-handed thrower. Very quietly Arroyo had one of the better breakout seasons in 2022, though it was clouded by his struggles in the Reds’ farm system. It’s likely just the result of a young prospect, barely into pro ball, changing organizations and looking to make a good first impression. So let’s take a look at his extended stint in Modesto, a heavily slanted pitcher-friendly ballpark. Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only two 18-year-old hitters posted a 125 to 135 wRC+ mark in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): Jake Bauers, the failed former consensus top prospect, and Edwin Arroyo.

Arroyo has quietly become one of the better shortstop prospects in the minor leagues and most haven’t realized it yet. Better than expected power from one of the youngest players in the 2021 draft class. He showed a solid feel on both sides of the batter’s box. The left-handed swing looks better, more powerful than his debut. Low, squat stance. A big breakout is coming in 2023. He’s the second best shortstop prospect in the Reds’ system, which is saying something nowadays.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024/2025

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4. Noelvi Marte, SS

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
50/5550/5560555055

Background: While the Reds’ impressive farm system would stand near the top of baseball just based on their homegrown talent, not all of the club’s bounty has been drafted or signed off the international free agent market. Like Noelvi Marte. Part of the massive talent package the front office received from the Mariners for ace right-hander Luis Castillo. Marte, who was acquired along with Edwin Arroyo, Andrew Moore, and Levi Stoudt, originally signed with Seattle during the summer of 2018 for a massive $1.55 million. The 6-foot-1, 181-pound shortstop manhandled the Dominican Summer League in 2019. And he continued to impress in Low-A two years later, batting .271/.368/.463 with the Modesto Nuts. Last season, between both organizations’ High-A affiliates, Marte mashed .279/.371/.458 with 23 doubles, 19 homeruns, and 23 stolen bases (in 32 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the league average mark by 31%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only two 20-year-old hitters posted a 125 to 135 wRC+ with a 19.5% to 21.5% strikeout percentage with a 9.5% to 11.5% walk percentage in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): Jeter Downs and Noelvi Marte.

Not nearly the type of impact player that Elly De La Cruz is – or will be at the Major League level – Marte, nonetheless, owns a high upside ceiling. Loose, quick swing with plus bat speed and the chance to grow into an above-average hit tool. Strong contact and walk rates. Above-average power potential – even though he spent a lot of 2022 in Everett’s homer-inducing ballpark. He’s never going to be confused with Ozzie Smith, but he has the chops to stay at the position. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .280/.350/.440.   

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023/2024

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Chase Petty, RHP

FBCBSLCHCommandOverall
60555550/5545/5055

Background: Owner of one of the best fastballs in the entire 2021 draft class. Petty, who once touched as high as 102 mph with his heater, was snagged by the Twins near the backend of the first round two years ago. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound righty signed for a hefty $2.5 million as the 26th overall pick that summer. Petty would make just a pair of appearances with Minnesota’s Complex League affiliate, throwing 5.0 innings with six punch outs and a free pass. And that was entirety of Chase Petty’s career with the Twinkies. The franchise would ship their most recent first rounder off to the Reds for veteran right-hander Sonny Gray and minor league reliever Francis Peguero. For all intents and purposes, Petty’s real professionaldebut happened in Cincinnati’s system last summer. He would make 25 appearances, 20 of which were starts, between Daytona and Dayton, throwing 98.1 innings with 96 strikeouts and 31 free passes. He finished the season with an aggregate 3.48 ERA and a 3.73 FIP.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

After touching as high as 102 mph during his amateur career, Petty’s fastball has nestled in at the 94-to- 95-mph range in the professional ranks. But he’s far more polished than the typical flame-throwing high schooler. He was very poised during his first full season in the minor leagues, showing a solid aptitude to pitching as he consistently changed speeds and moved the ball around. Petty shows a lot of trust / faith in his above-average, mid-80s slider, which flashes plus on occasion. He has no qualms about starting a batter off with one, or multiple, breaking balls. His changeup, though, is what surprised me the most. There’s not a whole lot of velocity separation, just seven or so miles-per-hour, but there’s a lot of arm-side fade through heavy pronation and it will flash plus as well. A year after prognosticating that the former first rounder would be a mid-rotation, he’s still tracking as such. Ironically, there’s some Sonny Gray upside for Petty.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2024/2025

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6. Michael Siani, CF

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
404060557050

Background: The Reds must have liked what they saw heading into the 2018 Draft because they handed Siani $2 million as the 109th overall player taken that summer. That fourth round bonus has only been surpassed just once since then – the Rangers signed projected first rounder Brock Porter to a hefty $3.7 million deal last summer. Ironically, enough, Porter was also taken with the 109th overall pick. A gifted defender in centerfield, Siani put an abysmal showing in High-A in 2021 firmly in the rearview mirror last season. Appearing in 121 games with the Lookouts of Chattanooga, the 6-foot-1, 188-pound former Bonus Baby batted a respectable .252/.351/.404 with 19 doubles, seven triples, 12 homeruns, and 49 stolen bases (in 61 total attempts). Siani’s overall production with the club’s Double-A affiliate topped the league average mark by 2%, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus. He also made a quick eight-game through Triple-A and he spent another nine games with the Reds as well.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Double-A season (min. 350 PA: 97 to 107 wRC+, 16% to 18% strikeout rate, and a double-digit walk rate. Those four hitters: Tyler Saladino, David Cooper, Maikel Garcia, and – of course – Mike Siani, the former fourth rounder.

Always a contender for the best defensive player in the minor leagues, the 2022 season further cemented Siani’s ability to take hits and runs away from the opposition. Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics had him as a +21 defender; Baseball Prospectus had him at 2.8 Fielding Runs Above Average, as well. The question entering last season was whether or not he would hit enough to elicit any type of starting gig because his offense was beyond atrocious in High-A. Below-average hit tool and power. Plus speed that he utilizes incredibly well on the base paths and the outfield (obviously). There’s always been starting potential and now that his bat has a bit of pulse he’s one step closer. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .250/.310/.390.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022

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7. Sal Stewart, 3B

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
5065305045/5050

Background: Westminster Christian High School went nearly 30 years in between first round selections. Alex Rodriguez, of course, was famously selected atop the 1993 draft and would go on to slug nearly 700 homeruns and tally 117.6 wins above replacement during his 22-year big league career. Twenty-nine years later the Cincinnati Reds cast their net into the school’s baseball pond and fished out another infield prospect: Sal Stewart. A hulking 6-foot-3, 215-pound third baseman, Stewart was a dynamic force in the Warriors’ lineup throughout his four-year career, earning a spot on USA Today’s HSSA Baseball Team. Stewart batted a scorching .514/.670/1.081 during the 2022 season, belting out 13 doubles, one triple, and nine homeruns. According to the Miami Herald, he finished his career as a .488/.621/1.621 hitter with 31 doubles, three triples, and 30 homeruns to go along with 95 runs batted in. Stewart, the 32nd overall pick last July, was committed to SEC powerhouse Vanderbilt University. Cincinnati signed the slugging infielder to a deal worth $2.1 million. He batted .292/.393/.458 in eight Complex League games.

Scouting Report: At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, Stewart’s already pushing the size for a typical third baseman. And he hasn’t even begun to fill out. Above-average arm strength. A bit robotic in the field. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him slide across the diamond to first base. Big, big time power potential – arguably the best raw thump in the entire draft class. When Stewart connects it’s like an explosion. Really, really good looking swing – especially considering that power is Stewart’s main asset. Impressive speed and explosion throughout his rotation. It wouldn’t be overly shocking to see Stewart consistently post better-than-average contact rates. There’s definitely some Triston Casas-type potential here. Very, very savvy pick by the Cincinnati Reds front office.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2025/2026

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8. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B / 3B

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
505035505550

Background: After watching years and years and years of minor league baseball, one of my favorite quips involves former prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia. His nickname, at least according to his bio on Baseball Reference, is Salty. But he was also known as “Pits”, because his 14-letter last name extended from arm pit to arm around the back of his jersey. But that’s nothing compared to Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who’s surname extends a total of 18 characters. Does that now make him “Super Pits”? Taken out of Oklahoma State University in the fourth round two years ago, Encarnacion-Strand was a force at the plate during his lone season with the Cowboys as he mashed .361/.442/.661 with 17 doubles, three triples, and 15 homeruns. And the former JuCo-turned-Division-I star continued to batter the competition during his 22-game debut with Minnesota’s Low-A affiliate as well: he hit .391/.424/.598. Last season was much the same for the corner infielder: he shredded High-A and looked almost Ruthian during his first two weeks in Double-A. Cincinnati acquired Encarnacion-Strand, along with Spencer Steer and Steve Hajjar in early August for veteran right-hander Tyler Mahle. The former fourth rounder spent the rest of the year doing what he seemingly always does: hit. He would finish the year with an aggregate .304/.368/.587 with 31 doubles, five triples, 32 homeruns, and eight stolen bases (in ten attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by a mindboggling 52%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only two 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any High-A league (min. 300 PA): at least a 159 wRC+ and a strikeout rate between 24% and 28%. Those two hitters: former minor league saber-slanted darling Kala Ka’aihue and, of course, Christian Encarnacion-Strand.

When watching Encarnacion-Strand play with such dominance, one name immediately jumps to mind. Consider the following:

SeasonNameLevelAgeLevelPAAVGOBPSLGBB%K%
2010Paul GoldschmidtA+22A+5990.3140.3840.6069.50%26.90%
2022Christian Encarnacion-StrandA+22A+3300.2960.3700.5999.09%25.76%

Impressive power to all fields, Encarnacion-Strand has been a dynamic slugger during his brief career, combining his plus-power with a remarkably solid hit tool. Is he the second coming of Paul Goldschmidt? No. But could he be 75% of the future Hall of Famer? It certainly looks like it. Defensively, he’s fringy at the hot corner but could put it off if he reaches his offensive ceiling to help compensate. Otherwise, he’ll move across the diamond. The lone knock of hyphenated hulk: he struggled against lefties (.206/.263/.411 vs. .344/.409/.659). Obvious platoon risk here, but there’s definite big league value to be extracted from thumping bat.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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9. Connor Phillips, RHP

FBCBSLCHCommandOverall
605050/555040/4555

Background: A few weeks before last season officially kicked off the Reds and Mariners got together on a rather large trade. The specifics: Cincinnati dealt away former All-Star Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker in exchange for Brandon Williamson, Justin Dunn, Jake Fraley, and a Player To Be Named Later. A little more than two weeks later the Redlegs’ front office decided that final piece of the deal would be right-hander Connor Phillips. A 2020 second round pick out of McLennan Community College, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound hurler turned in a rollercoaster debut in the Mariners’ organization two years ago. Spending the majority of the year with the club’s Low-A affiliate, Phillips tossed 76.0 innings of work, recording a whopper of a strike total (111) while dealing with some problematic control issues (46 free passes). Last season, his first in Cincy’s organization, the former early round pick split time between Dayton and Chattanooga, averaging 12.3 strikeouts and 5.4 walks per nine innings across 24 starts. He finished the year with an aggregate 3.78 ERA across a career best 109.2 innings.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

  • Since 2006, only two 21-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage between 34% to 36% with a walk percentage between 10% and 12% in any High-A league (min. 60 IP): Matt Moore, who would go on to develop into a consensus Top 2 prospect in baseball, and – of course – Connor Phillips, the former Player To Be Named Later.

Phillips has the floor of a backend reliever just built off of his fastball / slider combo, which he is heavily reliant on. He’ll run his heater upwards of 97 mph, though it sits more in the 95-mph range the majority of the time. The slider is definitely better than what I saw in 2021, generating all kinds of awkward swings during his stint in High-A. The curveball shows some serious depth and fantastic shape, it’s arguably as good as the slider, though he tends to keep it in his back pocket. He flashed an average changeup two years ago, though he was reluctant to throw it during the games I saw. You could make the argument – and a rather convincing one – that he’s one of the better starting pitching prospects most people haven’t quite discovered. Just like former Red Tyler Mahle, who I wrote extensively about over the years.  Obvious reliever risk due to command issues. But he’s already logged nearly half of a season in Double-A before his age-22 season. Maybe 85% of a healthy Tyler Glasnow.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

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10. Carlos Jorge, 2B / SS

HitPowerSBPatienceGloveOverall
35/456055505555

Background: Another part of the club’s bounty off the international market in January of 2021. A few months later, the Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic native morphed into one of the most explosive bats in the foreign rookie leagues.  He mashed .346/.436/.579 with eight doubles, 10 triples, three homeruns, and 27 stolen bases (in 32 total attempts). Last season the front office pushed the 5-foot-10, 160-pound dynamo up to the Complex League. And he continued to surpass expectations. Appearing in 42 games in the stateside rookie league, the lefty-swinging middle infielder slugged .261/.405/.529 with seven doubles, two triples, seven homeruns, and swiped another 27 stolen bases (in only 31 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production passed the league average threshold by a massive 51%. For his career, Jorge is sporting .309/.422/.558 with 15 doubles, 12 triples, 10 homeruns, and 54 stolen bases.

Scouting Report: Jorge packs an incredible punch at the plate with the type of natural power that shouldn’t be found in a 5-foot-10, 160-pound frame. The Dominican youngster has always shown a knack for pop, even when it looked like he could barely get the bat around in time as an amateur. There’s obvious risk here given his propensity to swing-and-miss and the hit tool is a bit unrefined. But there’s a chance to have plus power on the right-side of the keystone and that doesn’t happen too often. There’s some potential stardom developing here. He’s one to remember over the next couple of years. He could pop in a very big way.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2025

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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.

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