Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook here!
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1. Gunnar Henderson, 3B / SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50/55 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 70 |
Background: The Baltimore Orioles hired current General Manager Mike Elias in mid-November 2018. Seven months later Elias would captain the most successful draft in recent memory – for any Major League franchise. The O’s selected Oregon State University backstop Adley Rutschman with the first overall pick. Rutschman, of course, would go on to become a consensus Top 5 prospect for three consecutive seasons and quickly established himself as a one of the best young players in Major League Baseball during his debut campaign last season. Forty-one selections after the organization nabbed the former Beaver star, Baltimore circled back around and chose John T. Morgan Academy dynamo Gunnar Henderson – who quickly ascended towards the top of every top prospect list. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound shortstop / third baseman turned in a solid debut in the old Gulf Coast League, hitting .259/.331/.370 with five doubles, two triples, a dinger, and a pair of stolen bases in only 29 games. Two years later, after minor league action returned from its pandemic-induced absence, Henderson annihilated the Low-A competition to the tune of .312/.369/.575, made a brief stop in High-A, and closed out his breakout season with a five-game cameo in Double-A. That blitz through the mid-levels just set the tone for a massive 2022 season. Splitting time between Bowie and Norfolk, the former second rounder mashed .297/.416/.531 with 24 doubles, seven triples, 19 homeruns, and 22 stolen bases (in only 25 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Henderson’s overall production blasted past the league average minimum by a whopping 53%. Baltimore called him up for his big league debut at the end of August. Henderson continued to impress as he batted .259/.348/.440 with 12 extra-base hits in 34 games.
Scouting Report: With regard to his longest stint at a minor league level last season, consider the following:
- Since 2006, only four 21-year-old hitters posted a 132 to 142 wRC+ mark in any Triple-A league (min. 275 PA): Wil Myers, Lastings Milledge, Dilson Herrera, and – of course – Gunnar Henderson.
Now let’s address the two elephants in the room, shall we?
#1. Strikeout Rates – Henderson took massive strides forward last season in terms of contact rates, posting a sub-20% whiff rate at the minors’ toughest level (Double-A), though it did bloat to the 26% range in Triple-A and during his MLB debut.
#2. Left-handers – Henderson batted a putrid .189/.293/.349 (.642 OPS) during his breakout 2021 campaign. Last season, he more or less maintained status quo, batting .208/.316/.354 (.670 OPS) against southpaws.
Henderson has every tool imaginable to be a transcendent superstar – hit tool, power, speed, patience, premium defensive position (either shortstop or the hot corner), but he’s not going to achieve that level with those types of platoon splits.
Ceiling: 7.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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2. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP
| FB | CB | SL | CU | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 70 | 60 | 70 |
Background: Former Orioles GM Dan Duquette did a lot of good during his seven years in the captain’s chair. The ball club placed second in the ultra-competitive AL East Division in his first season, though eventually losing in the ALDS to the hated Yankees. That year started a stretch of five consecutive seasons of playing .500 or better ball. And while the front office wasn’t without its sins during that time period, like signing one-dimensional slugger Chris Davis to a $161 million deal in January 2016, Duquette’s tenure was, by and large, a success. But, perhaps, the best thing Duquette did for the organization could be found in his final draft class, leaving his eventual replacement, Mike Elias, with a head start on the organization’s latest rebuild. That parting gift: Grayson Rodriguez, the 11th overall pick in the 2018 draft. A product of Central Heights High School, the 6-foot-5, 220-pound right-hander – almost immediately – established himself as one of the game’s preeminent prospects. He would twirl 19.1 innings of dominance during his debut in the old Gulf Coast League, fanning 20 and walking seven to go along with a 1.40 ERA. The front office sent the fire-balling teenager up to the South Atlantic League in 2019, and Rodriguez simply overmatched the older competition as he fanned 129 against just 36 free passes in 94.0 innings of work. After minor league ball returned from its COVID-induced hiatus, Rodriguez was unearthly during his five-game cameo with Aberdeen and the franchise deemed the then-21-year-old ready for the toughest level – Double-A. And he put together a historic 18-start cameo with the Baysox of Bowie. He finished his second full season with a sparkling 2.36 ERA, averaging 14.1 strikeouts and just 2.4 walks per nine innings. Last season, in an injury-interrupted campaign, Rodriguez was limited to just 17 starts, 14 of which came in Triple-A, recording another absurd strikeout-to-walk ratio (109-to-28) in only 75.2 innings. A Grade 2 right lat strain knocked him out of action from early June through early September, essentially costing him the chance at his big league debut.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 22-year-old hurlers met the following criteria in any Triple-A league (min. 60 IP): 34% to 37% strikeout percentage with a 6% to 9% walk percentage. Those two hurlers: former Braves top prospect Tommy Hanson and – of course – Grayson Rodriguez.
Rodriguez’s repertoire is on the short, short list for best in the minor leagues – again. But what separates the budding ace from the rest of the pack is his ability to command the strike zone with each of his five offerings. The young right-hander, who likely wins a Cy Young award during his big league career, owns a pair of plus-plus offerings (mid- to upper-90s fastball and a fall-off-the-table changeup with Bugs Bunny action), a plus slider, an above-average cutter (which is a new addition to his attack), and a solid-average curveball. Elite ceiling.
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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3. Jackson Holliday, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 60 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 50/55 | 70 |
Background: Oklahoma-based Stillwater High School hasn’t produced a lot of future professional ballplayers during its history. But when a player does get drafted coming out of the prep school, the odds are pretty good that (A) he’s going to make it to the big leagues and (B) he’s probably going to fall somewhere on the Holliday family tree. Three of the school’s six picks made the big leagues: seven-time All-Star and 2007 batting champ Matt Holliday (Jackson’s old man), Brett Anderson, and Ryan Vilade. Likewise, two of the school’s six picks are Hollidays. Along with Jackson’s dad, the young shortstop’s uncle Josh Holliday was the selected by the Twins coming out of high school – though he spurned the club’s interest as a 14th round pick and opted to attend Oklahoma State University. Four years later the Blue Jays snagged him in the ninth round. But after two mediocre seasons in the low levels, Holliday called it quits. He would spend a couple years on his dad’s coaching staff at Oklahoma State, would leave, and eventually return to take over the head coaching gig in 2012. Baseball runs deep in the Holliday family. And Jackson, a 6-foot-1, 175-pound lefty-swinging shortstop, is the next in line. Committed to Oklahoma State – where else would a Holliday go? – the young infielder was named the state’s Gatorade Player of the Year following a tremendous senior campaign. He slugged .685/.749/1.392 with 17 homeruns and 79 RBIs. He also – quietly – set the National Federation of High Schools single season mark for hits in a season with 89. Baltimore selected Holliday atop the draft last season, signing the #1 overall pick to a deal worth $8,190,000. Jackson batted an impressive .297/.489/.422 between the Complex League and Delmarva.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, my pre-draft write-up:
“Beautiful left-handed swing that’s going to spray line drives from foul line to foul line without too much bais. There’s a chance the hit tool develops into a perennial .300 hitter during his peak in the professional ranks. Holliday isn’t going to hit mammoth homeruns, but he should hit 20 dingers that leave the park in a hurry. Defensively, he has the chops to stay at the position. Smooth, quick, not flashy. He’s a blue-collar shortstop that has a chance to grade out as above-average.”
Ceiling: 6.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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4. Colton Cowser, OF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 45/50 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: An offensive juggernaut during his two-plus seasons at Sam Houston State. Cowser left the Southland Conference-based school with a career .354/.460/.608 slash line. Baltimore drafted the former Bearkat bopper with the fifth overall pick two years ago, signing him to a well-below slot bonus worth $4.9 million, saving the ball club nearly $1.2 in draft monies. The 6-foot-3, 195-pound outfielder made the transition from the small Division I school into the minor leagues look like child’s play as he mashed .375/.490/.492 during his 149-plate appearance debut two years ago. Last summer, Cowser, a native of Houston, Texas, blitzed through three stops along the minor league ladder, going from High-A to Double-A and then eventually settling in at Triple-A for the last month of the season. He finished his first full season in pro ball with an aggregate .278/.406/.469 triple slash line with 36 doubles, two triples, 19 homeruns, and 18 stolen bases (in only 21 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Cowser’s overall production topped the league average threshold by a whopping 42%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 22-year-old hitters posted a 118 to 128 wRC+ with a 26% to 30% strikeout rate and a double-digit walk rate in any High-A league (min. 275 PA): Marc Wik, Korry Howell, and – of course – Colton Cowser.
The sweet-swinging former early first round selection struggled mightily with contact issues throughout the duration of 2022, posting K-rate north of 25% in each of his three stops. Compounding the questions about his hit tool are the dramatic – and concerning – platoon splits that the lefty-swinging Cowser displayed. He batted a scorching .307/.432/.530 against righties but cobbled together a lowly .194/.329/.287 mark against lefties with a K-rate north of 33%. And don’t buy into his power surge either. Cowser slugged more than half of his homeruns in 49 games in Double-A with the Bowie Baysox, who happen to have one of the most homer-friendly environments in the minor leagues. So just let’s recap. In 2022, Cowser:
#1. Struggled with contact issues.
#2. Had significant troubles against southpaws.
#3. Had a major power surge, though a portion of his career high thump #4. Can be attributed to friendly hitting environments.
Defensively speaking, he’s better suited for a corner outfielder gig. There’s some starting material here.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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5. Joey Ortiz, SS
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45 | 40 | 50 | 70 | 55 |
Background: New Mexico State University is far from a traditional hotbed, historically speaking, but the school’s provided a solid pipeline of talent over the past several years. Recent alums include: Nick Gonzales, the seventh overall pick three years ago; Kyle Bradish, Daniel Johnson, and – of course – Joey Ortiz. Taken in the fourth round, 108th overall, in 2019, Ortiz was productive hitter over first two seasons with the Aggies. But the 5-foot-11, 175-pound infielder had an offensive explosion during his junior campaign as he bashed .422/.474/.697 with 25 doubles, 10 triples, eight homeruns, and a dozen stolen bases. The California native looked miserable during his debut in the old New York-Penn League, hitting a scant .241/.345/.267 with just three extra-base knocks in 56 games. After minor league baseball returned from its COVID-induced hiatus, Ortiz’s bat looked refreshed as he shredded the High-A competition. And just as he was settling in with Bowie in Double-A, a shoulder injury prematurely ended his campaign. Finally healthy last season, he made stops with the Baysox of Bowie and the Tides of Norfolk, hitting an aggregate .284/.349/.477 with 35 doubles, six triples, 19 homeruns, and eight stolen bases (in 10 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 22%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): 110 to 120 wRC+, a 15.5% to 17.5% strikeout rate, and a 7.5% to 9.5% walk rate. Those three hitters: Dwight Smith Jr., Chad Tracy, and Joey Ortiz. Smith spent parts of four seasons in the big league, the last two with the Orioles of Baltimore. And Tracy was a promising power-hitting for a couple seasons early in his career before shifting to part-time duty.
A tremendous defender at the infield’s premium position, Ortiz’s leatherwork is good enough to make him a starter – even if he was a Mario Mendoza-type hitter. The offensive potential could push him up as an above-average regular. Plus-plus defender who has the potential to win a Gold Glove or two. Ortiz takes a strong contact-oriented approach at the plate, showing doubles power, a little bit of speed, and an average hit tool. There are a lot of similarities to Arizona’s Nick Ahmed. There’s an offensive ceiling of a .260/.320/.410 hitter.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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6. D.L. Hall, LHP
| FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
| 70 | 60 | 60 | 70 | 30/40 | 60 |
Background: The hopes of the ball club’s 2017 draft class are hinging on the erratic, yet oh-so-talented left arm of D.L. Hall. Taken with the 21st overall pick that summer, Hall blew the doors off the competition during his first full season in the minors in 2018, posting a 100-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 2.10 ERA across 94.1 innings of work. His impressive strikeout ability shined brightly the next year in High-A, but his borderline concerning command issues blossomed into a full blown blunder as he walked 54 hitters in only 80.2 innings. After minor league baseball returned from its COVID-enforced vacation, Hall dealt with a stress reaction in the bone of his precious left elbow in 2021, limiting him to just 31.2 innings. Last season, Hall made a brief start with Aberdeen and another with Bowie before moving on up to Triple-A. He also squeezed in two separate stints in Baltimore as well. Overall, Hall tossed 84.1 minor league innings, striking out an impressive 137 against 50 free passes to go along with a 4.48 ERA and a 3.65 FIP. The well-built southpaw hurled another 13.2 innings in the Bigs as well, fanning 19 and walking six while surrendering nine earned runs.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 23-year-olds posted a strikeout percentage north of 35% in any Triple-A league (min. 75 IP): Rays ace right-hander Tyler Glasnow and D.L. Hall.
Now the bad news:
- Glasnow, who’s dealt with his own command issues, posted a walk percentage of 8.79%. Hall, on the other hand, finished his time in Triple-A with a hefty 14.16% walk percentage.
There aren’t too many hurlers that could put their entire arsenal up against Grayson Rodriguez and come away the winner. But Hall’s name is certainly on the short, short list. One of the best left-handed fastballs in the entire minor leagues; Hall’s heater will operate in the 94- to 97-mph range and it will reach as high as 99 mph on occasion. It’s plus-plus offering with late, riding life and some noticeable hop on the tail end. He backs up the offering with one of the best changeups I saw in 2022, adding another second plus-plus offering. His pair of breaking balls, curveball and slider, are both plus pitches. If Hall possessed 60-grade command, he’d be the best pitcher in Major League Baseball. If he had, above-average command, he’d be a Top 5 hurler. If he had average command, he’d be a lock for the Top 10. His 30-grade command may push him entirely out of a starting gig, though with the parent club completely out of contention he’ll still get an extended look.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2022
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7. Connor Norby, 2B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 50 | 40 | 50 | 45 | 55 |
Background: There’s a sub-theme that’s surrounded each of Mike Elias’s draft classes with the Orioles – college hitters. Beginning with his first class in 2019 through last summer, the franchise has owned a total of 17 selections among the first three rounds. Of those 17 picks, the front office has chosen a college hitter 14 times. The lone outliers: Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, and Nolan McLean. And the franchise started their 2021 draft class with five consecutive collegiate hitters, the second of which was East Carolina University infielder Connor Norby. Limited to just 105 plate appearances over his first two seasons with the Pirates, the 5-foot-10, 187-pound second baseman morphed into the American Athletic Conference’s version of Ted Williams during his junior campaign. Norby posted a whopper of a slash line, .415/.484/.659, with a near one-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with 15 doubles and 15 homeruns. After signing with the franchise for $1.7 million as the 41st overall pick two years ago, Norby was solid during his debut with Delmarva, batting .283/.413/.434 with eight extra-base knocks in only 26 games. Last season the second baseman / moonlighting left fielder struggled during his 48-game stint in High-A, hitting .237/.311/.425 with Aberdeen. His bat caught fire during his 64-game tenure with Bowie and continued to hit in a brief stint in Triple-A. When the dust finally settled Norby had compiled an aggregate .279/.360/.526 with 23 doubles, four triples, 29 homeruns, and 16 stolen bases (in 22 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production surpassed the league average mark by 37%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only two 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Double-A league (min. 275 PA): 152 to 162 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and an 18% to 21% strikeout rate. Those two hitters: M.J. Melendez and, of course, Connor Norby.
Norby’s power has already surpassed my modest expectations. And it’s now a repeatable, rock solid tool. The former ECU bopper got off to a solid start to the year, hitting .268/.344/.549 over his first 19 games with Aberdeen. But after going 3-for-14 over his next five games, the former second rounder hit the disabled list with an eye issue, an injury that knocked him out of action for a couple weeks. It would take him a couple weeks to get going again, but he didn’t slow down for the remainder of the year. Not an overly patient hitter at the plate, Norby, though, is very selective. There’s plus raw power, which he’ll flash every once in a while when he really gets into one. Good looking swing. He doesn’t try to do too much with the ball either. He’s a poor defender at the keystone, but he might be a candidate to bounce between the hot corner and left field. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .285/.345/.445.
Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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8. Jordan Westburg, IF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 45/50 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: SEC power-house Mississippi State University has churned out a tremendous amount of talent over the past four draft classes. Twenty-five Bulldogs have been drafted since 2019, including: five first round selections, two second round picks, and a pair of fourth rounders. One of those aforementioned first round picks is Jordan Westburg, who was taken near the back of the opening round, 30th overall, in the COVID-limit 2020 draft class. The 6-foot-3, 203-pound infielder turned in an impressive debut two years ago, slugging a rock solid .285/.389/.479 as he moved across three separate levels, including a semi-lengthy stint in Double-A. Westburg opened up last season back in Bowie, but after 47 games the front office pushed him up to the final minor league stop. He finished the year with an aggregate .265/.355/.496 slash line with 39 doubles, tied for the sixth most in the minors, three triples, 27 homeruns, and 12 stolen bases (in 15 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by 26%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): 125 to 135 wRC+, 21% to 23% strikeout rate, and a double-digit walk rate. Those three hitters: Jon Singleton, Isan Diaz, and – of course – Jordan Westburg.
Westburg started the season off as cold as an iceberg, hitting a chilly .179/.304/.379 over his first 25 games, but he rebounded to slug .283/.367/.521 over his remaining 113 contests. An above-average defender at the most important position on the infield, as well as at second and third bases, Westburg also showed more thump than expected as well – particularly in Triple-A where Norfolk’s ballpark was a neutral hitting ground. Westburg is tracking like a solid, league-average starter with the ceiling as a .270/.340/.425.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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9. Coby Mayo, 3B
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 50 | 60 | 35 | 50 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Mike Elias’s guidance in combination with the club perennially selecting near the top of the midsummer draft have helped restock the Orioles’ once sagging farm system. Elias’ 2019 class added Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and the recently traded Darell Hernaiz. A year later the club added the likes of Heston Kjerstad, Jordan Westburg, and Coby Mayo. Taken with the 103rd overall pick that year, the front office signed the 6-foot-5, 215-pound third baseman to a hefty $1.75 million deal. Mayo turned in a solid debut showing two years ago, slugging .319/.426/.555 with 14 doubles, one triple, nine homeruns, and 11 stolen bases in only 53 games between the Complex League and Low-A. Last season, the Florida-born infielder continued to impress during his romp through High-A and Double-A as well. He slugged an aggregate .247/.326/.456 with 20 doubles, two triples, 19 homeruns, and five stolen bases. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 10%. Mayo lost the entire month of July due to back spasms last summer.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
- Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a season in High-A (min. 275 PA): 113 to 123 wRC+, 20% to 23% strikeout rate, and an 8% to 11% walk rate. Those three hitters: Leody Taveras, Trey Michalczewski, and – of course – Coby Mayo.
Plus-plus raw power that he’s just starting to pull into games. There isn’t a ballpark in the world that can contain one of his prodigious blasts. Still not in love with the setup at the plate. The hulking 6-foot-5, 215-pound masher starts with a wide base at the plate. There’s a lot of pre-swing movement, including shifting his weight entirely to back leg. But the swing is breathtakingly fast and short. If it weren’t for a plethora of better defenders already in place, Mayo could stay at the hot corner. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him wind up as a left or rightfielder. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .260/.330/.450.
Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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10. Heston Kjerstad, RF
| Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
| 55 | 60 | 30 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: The 2020 draft class marked the first time in four years that college hitters went back-to-back with the top two selections. Detroit led the mid-summer draft off by selecting Spencer Torkelson, the bashing Arizona State University star, with the #1 overall pick, and Baltimore followed it up with Arkansas masher Heston Kjerstad. Unfortunately, for the 6-foot-3, 205-pound outfielder, he wouldn’t make his professional debut until nearly two years later due to myocarditis (heart inflammation) which was unknown heading into the draft. The former Razorback was medically cleared last season and appeared with the Delmarva Shorebirds in mid-June. And – amazingly – Kjerstad resembled the same type of power-hitting outfielder the Orioles drafted, despite the lengthy layoff. He shredded the Low-A competition for 22 games (.463/.551/.650) before slowing during a couple-month stint in High-A (.233/.312/.362). Kjerstad finished the year with an aggregate .309/.394/.457 with 17 doubles, two triples, five homeruns, and a stolen base. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league mark by 35%. Baltimore sent the former #2 overall pick to the Arizona Fall League following the season. And he mashed. He slugged .357/.385/.622 with nine doubles, one triple, and five homeruns in 22 games with the Scottsdale Scorpions.
Scouting Report: One of the better feel good stories from the 2022 season. Not only did Kjerstad making it back from his extended absence, but he performed far better than expected. Not your typical power-hitting outfielder, Kjerstad showed a surprising willingness to consistently shoot the ball the other way. Plus power potential, particularly pull power, there’s a solid chance he develops an above-average hit tool. Very similar swing as former All-Star Sean Casey. Kjerstad also showed a surprising amount of agility in right field as well. He’s poised to be one of the bigger breakouts in 2023. After his strong AFL, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the O’s push him directly up to Double-A at the start of year.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, and Baseball America.
