Atlanta Braves: Top 10 Prospects for 2022

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the The 2022 Prospect Digest Handbook here!

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1. Cristian Pache, CF

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
50	50	50	50	50	60

Background: A high profile free agent signing out of Santo Domingo Centro, Dominican Republic, in July 2015. Atlanta handed the toolsy center fielder a nice seven-figure bonus, $1.7 million to be exact, and pushed him directly to the stateside rookie leagues the following season for his highly anticipated debut. And Pache passed with flying colors. Splitting time between the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues, he batted an aggregate .309/.349/.391 with four doubles and seven triples. A year later the then-18-year-old looked quite comfortable in the South Atlantic League testing grounds: he hit .281/.335/.343 with 21 extra-base hits in 119 games with the Rome Braves. The front office accelerated Pache’s development schedule even further in 2018 as he blitzed through High-A and got his first taste of Double-A – the most important test for a prospect – before he turned 20-years-old. Pache responded with a .285/.311/.431 showing with Florida and a decent .260/.294/.337 slash line with Mississippi. Not shockingly, the club had him spend the majority of 2019 back in Mississippi for additional seasoning before bumping him up to the final minor league stop. During the 2020 COVID lockdown / shutdown, the 6-foot-2, 215-pound outfielder was on the big league club’s taxi squad and he eventually appeared in a pair of games with Atlanta. Last season, Pache appeared in 89 games with Gwinnett in Triple-A East, batting .265/.330/.414 with 15 doubles and 11 dingers. He also swiped nine bags, though he was thrown out seven times. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was exactly the league average. Pache also appeared in 22 games with the Braves, hitting a paltry .111/.152/.206.  

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: A plus glove with the offensive tools to settle in atop – or in the middle – of championship big league team. But the most exciting aspect for Pache’s development: his blossoming power.

Scouting Report: A lot’s changed in the past couple years. So let’s start with the physical appearance. Namely, his weight: in 2019 Pache was measuring in at 185 pounds; last season, according to his bio, he’s tipping the scales at 215 pounds. It’s not necessarily bad weight, per se, but he’s definitely bulkier than the lean body composition in years past. Now let’s talk about production. Consider the following:

• Since 2006, only three 22-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ total between 95 and 105 with a strikeout rate of at least 25% in a Triple-A season with one organization (min. 350 PA): Nick Williams, Alex Liddi, and – of course – Cristian Pache. Williams, a former top prospect, owns a career 93 wRC+. And Liddi checks in with a 78 wRC+ across parts of three seasons with Seattle.

Well, that’s not encouraging. Let’s dive deeper.

• Pache was beyond useless the first couple months of the season. Including his time with Atlanta at the start of the year, he hit .166/.222/.285 over 47 games. However, over his final 64 games, he slugged a healthy .288/.352/.442. His strikeout rate over those two periods: 35.4% and 24.9%.

Now that’s better. The second half numbers are more in line with the expectations. Now let’s take a look at how the elite defender’s numbers stacked up last season:

• Per Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics, Pache was a staggering 10 runs saved below the average.

Defensive metrics tend to be unreliable in single year snapshots. Pache was incredibly valuable running the ball down in center field the first couple of seasons. But he’s been a below average defender in 2019 and now 2021. And his limited work in the big league (read: extremely limited) has been average-ish. I’m betting on his offensive numbers over the final several months. But remain skeptical on his ability to provide elite levels of defensive value. In terms of ceiling, think: .250/.335/.450. One final thought: if the defense comes screaming back, he’s perennial All-Star caliber talent and Gold Glover. Best case scenario: Mike Cameron.  

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2020

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2. Freddy Tarnok, RHP

FB	CB	SL	CH	Command	Overall
60	60	55	50	50/55	60

Background: The fifth pick in third round of the 2017 draft. Tarnok, a product of Riverview High School, has been on a slow, methodical development path. The 6-foot-3, 185-pound right-hander spent his first full season of action in the South Atlantic League, posting an 83-to-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 77.1 innings of work. An injury shortened campaign in 2019 limited him to just 19 starts with the club’s High-A affiliate: he tossed 98 innings, averaging 7.5 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings. Last season, as minor league life returned to normal, Tarnok was bounced back down to High-A for additional seasoning. After seven starts he was finally promoted up to Double-A for another nine appearances. In total, the hard-throwing right-hander averaged an impressive 13.4 strikeouts and just 3.4 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with an aggregate 3.44 ERA and a slightly better 3.21 FIP.  

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: I’m not certain the wiry right-hander is ready for the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA, so a return to the Florida State League is a possibility. [T] there’s a chance he develops into a #5/#6-type arm. 

Scouting Report: Steady progress for the young right-hander, so much so, that he may have one of the more underrated repertoire / ceiling’s among all minor league arms. When he was drafted Tarnok showed a solid feel for the strike zone with a couple pitches that projected to be 55-grade offerings. Last season Tarnok’s weaponry was blowing the doors off the competition. Mid- to upper-90s fastball that he commands exceptionally well. I had Tarnok upwards of 97 mph during a mid-July start. It shows exceptional late life and the Double-A hitters had a hard time catching up to it at times. His curveball is one of the better Uncle Charlie’s in the minor leagues, showing the big 12-6 break with hard downward tilt that’s reminiscent of a former Braves Top Prospect (Adam Wainwright). Tarnok’s also added a hard, very underrated slider that may get even better with additional seasoning. He’ll also mix in a decent changeup with some arm side run. There’s legitimate #2/#3-type potential here. And in a system chock full of interesting arms, it’s Tarnok, the former third round pick that didn’t start pitching until his sophomore season in high school, that owns the highest ceiling. If you’re not on the bandwagon yet, it’s probably too late. The lone red flag: he’s only surpassed 80 innings once his professional career (2019, 106.0 IP).

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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3. Michael Harris II, CF

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
50/55	40/45	60	50	55	60

Background: Dipping back into the prep pool that once produced Kyle Davis, a fourth round pick by the organization all the way back in 2001, Atlanta selected Michael Harris II in the third round out of Stockbridge High School three years ago. The 6-foot, 195-pound switch-hitting outfielder turned in a solid overall debut – though he torched the Gulf Coast League (.349/.403/.514) and struggled mightily after a promotion up to Low-A (.183/.269/.232). Last season, though, Harris II rediscovered his stroke – and, likely, his confidence – as he turned in a solid showing in High-A with the Rome Braves. In 101 games, he slugged .294/.362/.436 with 26 doubles, three triples, seven homeruns, and 27 stolen bases (in 31 attempts). His production topped the league average mark by 14%, per Weighted Runs Created Plus.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: The raw athleticism is off the charts. Harris could prove to be one of the better value picks.    

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

• Since 2006, only five 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a High-A season with one organization (min. 350 PA): 110 to 120 wRC+ total, a sub-20% strikeout rate, and a walk rate between 7.5% and 9.5%. Those five hitters: Franmil Reyes, Tyler Wade, Thairo Estrada, Marcus Lemon, and Michael Harris II.

Like a lot of the club’s other top young outfielders, Harris is jacked with tools and can provide value on both sides of the ball. The big differentiator, at least thus far, is his modest strikeout rate. Harris fanned in only 18.1% of his plate appearances last season. On the other hand, though, Harris is similar to someone like Drew Waters due to the problematic groundball rates; the former third round posted a 50.3% mark last season. Beyond that, there are no major red flags.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023

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4. Shea Langeliers, C

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
45	55	30	50	70	60

Background: Between 1965 and 2018, Baylor University produced a total of seven first round selections. Between 2019 and 2020, the Big 12 school produced three of them: Shea Langeliers (2019), Davis Wendzel (2019), and Nick Loftin (2020). Langeliers was a bit of a surprise pick – at least I thought so – when the Braves called his name with the ninth overall selection three years ago. After the two sides agreed to a deal worth slightly less than $4 million, the highest bonus in school history by the way, the 6-foot, 205-pound backstop hit a respectable .255/.310/.343 in 54 games in Low-A. Last season, as minor league ball returned to action, Langeliers spent 92 games with the Mississippi Braves in Double-A South, hitting .258/.338/.498 with 13 doubles and 22 homeruns. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 28%. He also appeared in five games in AAA as well.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: I still believe that the former Baylor slugger went about a round too early. But he profiles as a low end, capable starter at the MLB level. 

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

• Since 2006, only four 23-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ total between 123 and 133 with a strikeout rate between 24% and 27% and a walk rate between 9% and 11% in a Triple-A season with one organization (min. 350 PA): Brent Rooker, Christin Stewart, Corey Toups, and Shea Langeliers.

Langeliers is an extreme flyball hitter, posting a groundball rate of just 30.7%. He owns above-average, 20- to 25-homer power potential. Decent walk rates. A below-average hit tool. And a 70-grade glove with a howitzer for an arm. The offensive ceiling isn’t going to be overly large, something along the lines of .250/.320/.440, but if you thrown in great defense he becomes one of the better, more rounded backstops at the major league level. If that’s the case, the front office clearly made the right move selecting Langeliers when they did.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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5. Kyle Muller, LHP

FB	CB	SL	CH	Command	Overall
60	06	55	45	40/45	50

Background: The front office honed in on high ceiling prep arms early in the 2016 draft, selecting teenage hurlers  Ian Anderson (3^rd overall), Joey Wentz (40^th overall), and Kyle Muller (44^th overall) with their first three selections. The cost for the trio of pitchers: $9,550,000. While Anderson’s ascended to the upper portion of the Braves’ rotation and Wentz moved to the Detroit franchise as part of the Shane Greene deal, Muller has continued to his slow, methodical march which culminated in the big left-hander making to separate stints with the big league club in 2021. Last season, Muller made 17 starts with the Gwinnett Stripers in AAA East, averaging 10.5 strikeouts and 4.7 walks per nine innings to go along with a 3.39 ERA. He also made an additional nine appearances, eight of which were starts, with Atlanta, posting a 37-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 4.17 ERA in 36.2 innings of work. 

 Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: He never showed a solid feel for zone, but there’s no reason to think the control/command won’t bounce back up to a 45-grade. There’s some league average starting caliber potential, especially if the changeup is as good as it’s looked in practice (assuming the control/command comes back). 

Scouting Report: Two years ago Muller was working diligently on developing a third pitch. More specifically: improving his lackluster, below-average changeup. According to videos he was tweeting during the offseason, the pitch showed some serious potential as a viable third offering. Fast forward to last season and Muller’s all but scrapped the changeup, opting instead for a new weapon in his arsenal: an upper 80s cutter-like slider. The big 6-foot-7, 250-pound southpaw is still working out the kinks, but it does flash above-average occasionally. Plus fastball. Plus curveball. And every once-in-a-blue-moon he’ll throw a “show me” changeup. The command, which I was expecting to bounce back to 45-grade, never really did. Muller has a chance to be a viable league average starting pitcher. But there’s a lot more in the tank he can somehow figure out how to get his walk rate under 4.0 BB/9.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2020

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6. Vaughn Grissom, IF

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
50/55	35/40	50	55	45/50	50

Background: Florida-based high school Paul J. Hagerty has an interesting, relatively new baseball history – at least in terms of draft picks. The prep school has produced a total of six drafts picks, all occurring since 2011 and each signing for at least $347,500. Of those six, three have been first rounders (Riley Greene, Ryan Mountcastle, and Zach Eflin), one is a fifth rounder (Tyler Marlette), and two coming in the 11^th (Travis Hosterman and Vaughn Grissom). Taken with the 337^th overall pick in 2019, Grissom showed a lot of offensive promise during his impressive debut that season, hitting .288/.361/.400 in 44 games with the club’s Gulf Coast League affiliate. Last season Grissom shredded the Low-A competition to the tune of .311/.402/.446 with 15 doubles, four triples, five homeruns, and 13 stolen bases His overall production with Augusta topped the league average threshold by 35%. He spent the final few weeks in High-A – where he continued to swing a hot stick (.311/.402/.446). 

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

• Since 2006, only five 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in a Low-A season with one organization (min. 300 PA): 130 to 140 wRC+ total, a walk rate between 9% and 12%, and a sub-16.0% strikeout rate. Those five hitters: Desmond Jennings, Vidal Brujan, Corban Joseph, Jake Smolinski, and – of course – Mr. 11^th Rounder, Vaughn Grissom.
• For those counting at home:
  • Jennings spent parts of seven seasons in the big leagues, posting a career 103 wRC+.
  • Brujan has been a consensus Top 100 prospect for several years now, and made his highly anticipated – albeit abbreviated – debut with Tampa Bay last season.
  • Joseph has parts of three years on his big league resume.
  • Smolinski, a former second round pick, has five big league seasons on his resume, hitting .235/.299/.363 in 235 games.

So excluding Grissom, the other four hitters have made it to the big leagues; two were/are top prospects; and one was an above-average, near borderline All-Star player. As for Grissom, all the evidence is pointing to a potential big league career. Strong bat-to-ball skills. Good patience. Above-average speed. And enough power to keep defenses/pitchers honest. He’s likely going to shift over to second base permanently at some point. This was a tremendous job of scouting by the Braves’ front office.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2023/2024

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7. Victor Vodnik, RHP

FB	SL	CH	Command	Overall
65	50/55	55	40/45	55

Background: Yet another example of organization’s ability to unearth tremendous value well beyond the opening rounds of the draft. Atlanta selected the firebolt-slinging, smoke-throwing right-hander in the 14^th round in 2018. Vodnik, the 412^th player chosen that year, received a rather modest $200,000 bonus. The thick 6-foot, 200-pound youngster spent the 2019 season mostly working out of Rome’s bullpen, throwing just 67.1 innings across 23 appearances, averaging 9.2 strikeouts and just 3.2 walks per nine innings. And last season the front office completely took the baby bumpers off of Vodnik and unleashed him onto Double-A South. In between multiple stints on the disabled list, Vodnik was able to squeeze in 11 mostly brief appearances with Mississippi: he posted a 25-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 23.2 innings of work. He finished the year with a 5.35 ERA, a 4.86 FIP, and a 4.03 xFIP.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: He’s poised to be one of the bigger breakout prospects in 2020. And he’s one of my favorite arms in the minor leagues.

Scouting Report: One of the best fastballs in all of the minor leagues. Vodnik uncorks his high octane gas in the mid- to upper-90s and actually touched 101 mph at one point during the middle of the summer. And while it’s easy to peg the former prep draft pick as a future reliever, he’s matured a lot in the last couple of years. Vodnik is not only open to changing speeds, but he prefers too. His changeup is an above-average pitch, despite the velocity. There’s some sink and fade to it with enough velocity separation. He’ll also mix in a slider that flashes above-average a couple times a game. The floor of a closer definitely exists. But the Braves seem content to groom him as a starter. There’s legitimate mid-rotation caliber potential. One more final thought:

• Vodnik allowed 20 earned runs in 33.2 innings. 14 of those earned runs occurred just 3.2 innings. Ignoring those, he posted a 1.80 ERA over the other eight appearances.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022/2023

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8. Drew Waters, OF

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
45	45/50	50	50	55	50

Background: A product of Etowah High School, Atlanta snagged the toolsy, sometimes free-swinging outfielder in the second round, 41^st overall, in the 2017 draft. Waters was part of the draft class that added Kyle Wright, Freddy Tarnok, and Bruce Zimmerman to the fold. Prior to the 2021 season, the 6-foot-2, 185-pound outfielder was coming off of three impressive campaigns: He batted .278/.362/.429 between the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues during his debut; he followed that up with a .293/.343.476 showing between Low-A and High-A; and he blitzed through the minors’ toughest challenge, AA, and looked comfortable in a late season promotion up to AAA. So, all signs were pointing towards bigger and better things for the former high round selection. But things don’t necessarily work out the way they’re supposed to. In 103 games as he returned to Gwinnett, Water hit a disappointing .240/.329/.381 with 22 doubles, one triple, 11 homeruns, and 28 stolen bases (in 37 attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 6% below the league average threshold.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Waters is still showing some borderline concerning swing-and-miss numbers; he whiffed in nearly 27% of his Class AA plate appearances and that number ballooned by nearly 10-percentage points during his 26-game cameo in the International League. And there’s some solid raw power, though he’s still putting the ball on the ground too frequently. He looks like .280/.320/.420 type hitter.  

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

• Since 2006, only two 22-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ total between 90 and 100 with a strikeout rate north of 26% in a Triple-A season with one organization (min. 350 PA): Alex Liddi and Drew Waters.

 The strikeout rate has been steadily climbing at each minor league stop over the past couple of seasons: 19.7% (2018 A), 24.8% (2018 A+), 26.7% (2019 AA), 36.1% (2019 AAA) and, finally, 30.0% (AAA, 2021). He did walk an above-average amount last season (10.2%), but it doesn’t compensate for his lack of power or massive swing-and-miss issues. Waters is giving off some major Drew Stubbs vibes. But for that happen, though, he’s going to have to show more power and cut down on his 56% groundball rate.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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9. Braden Shewmake, SS

Hit	Power	SB	Patience	Glove	Overall
45	50	40	45	55	50

Background: A solid, eerily consistent contributor in Texas A&M’s lineup for three seasons. Shewmake posted OPS totals of: .903, .848, and .848 beginning with his freshman season in 2017. Atlanta selected the well-rounded shortstop in the opening round, 21^st overall, and signed him to a deal worth $3,129,800. And Atlanta immediately placed him on the fast track to the big leagues: he handled the transition to A-ball with aplomb, hitting .318/.389/.473, and spent the final couple weeks of his debut in AA, the minors’ most challenging level for a prospect. With the return of minor league ball in 2021, Shewmake appeared back with the Mississippi Braves in the newly aligned Double-A South. The results, though, left a lot to be desired. In 83 games, the 6-foot-4, 190-pound shortstop hit a disappointingly low .228/.271/.401 with just 14 doubles, three triples, and 12 homeruns. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 16% below the league average threshold.

Snippet from The 2020 Prospect Digest Handbook: Shewmake’s stellar debut – particularly in the Sally – like suggests that I may have shot a little too low on the young shortstop. I’d bump his ceiling up for a low-end starting caliber shortstop to a potentially league average one. Solid hit tool and power with a smattering of speed.     

Scouting Report: OK. Well, that’s some pretty poor production from a supposed top prospect. Now let’s dive deeper. Consider the following:

• The former Aggie got off to a laughably bad start to the year, hitting a paltry .094/.144/.165 with just three extra-base knocks across his fist 22 games, spanning 90 plate appearances. He posted a 25-to-5 strikeout-to-walk rate.
• Between June 5^th and August 20^th Shewmake slugged a scorching .303/.342/.527 with 11 doubles, two triples, and nine homeruns. He also whiffed in 15.5% of his plate appearances during this stretch. He posted a 31-to-20 strikeout-to-walk rate.
• He capped off his season in another extended lull, batting .155/.189/.268 over his final 18 games, posting a 22-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 74 plate appearances.

So…which is the real Shewmake? The bookend terribleness that lasted a total of 40 games or the hot swinging shortstop over the middle 48 games? Well, it depends how frequently he’s making contact. It’s not a coincidence that the low points see a spike in K-rate and it declined during the hot period. The truth is, he’s probably somewhere in between. 45-grade bat. 50-grade power. He’ll steal a base once or so a month. The above-average defense pushes him in to that low-end starting gig, which was my initial pre-draft thought. 

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022/2023

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10. Ryan Cusick, RHP

FB	CB	CH	Command	Overall
70	60	50	40/45	50

Background: A highly touted prospect coming out of Avon Old Farms School, Perfect Game ranked the behemoth right-hander as the 115^th best prospect in the country and Baseball America had the young gun as the 235^th prospect as well. The Cincinnati Reds took a late, late round flier on Cusick following his final season in high school, nabbing him with the 1,189^th selection. Obviously, the promising youngster bypassed any offers to jump into pro ball and headed directly to Wake Forest.  And to put it lightly: Cusick was abysmal during his freshman season with the Demon Deacons. Splitting time between the club’s rotation and bullpen, the 6-foot-6, 235-pound right-hander tallied a 6.44 ERA across 65.2 innings, recording 55 strikeouts and 29 walks. However, the Connecticut native blossomed in the Cape Cod League that summer, posting a 33-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in seven starts for the Bourne Braves. Cusick had an interesting 2020 season: through four starts, he averaged a whopping 17.3 strikeouts and an equally whopping 7.3 walks per nine innings. And during his final season with the ACC squad, he tallied a 4.24 ERA with 108 strikeouts and 32 free passes in a career high 70.0 innings of work. Projected to be a Top 10 selection, Atlanta happily snagged the flame-throwing hurler in the opening round, 24^th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.7 million. Cusick made six brief starts with Augusta during his debut, posting a dominating 34-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16.1 innings of work.    

Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Cusick heading into the draft last July:

“Consider the following:

• Between 2011 and 2020, there were 11 instances of an ACC pitcher averaging at least 12 strikeout per nine innings in a season (min. 60 IP): Marcus Stroman (who accomplished the feat twice), Carlos Rodon, Danny Hultzen, Brendan McKay, J.B. Bukauskas, Reid Detmers, Griffin Roberts, Graeme Stinson, Drew Parrish, and Jared Shuster. Only Stinson and Parrish were not taken in the first round.
• Among the group, only Shuster – like Cusick – averaged more than four walks per nine innings.

Plus-plus fastball that will touch upwards of triple digits and sits comfortably in the mid-90s. Cusick also features a low to mid-80s curveball and a firm, though workable changeup. The question – of course – is whether he can consistently find the strike zone enough in the professional ranks. There’s some real concern about whether he winds up in the bullpen as a two-pitch power arm. There’s some risk, but a team with limited [or multiple] picks would likely be willing to gamble late in the opening round.”

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2024

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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, and ClayDavenport.com